3 Reasons the Charlotte Hornets Have the Miami Heat on Verge of Collapse
The Charlotte Hornets entered the first round of the 2016 NBA playoffs fighting an uphill battle.
Their playoff resume was virtually barren, and their opponent, the Miami Heat, had claimed two of the last four titles. When the Heat opened the series with consecutive double-digit victories, it was fair to question whether the Hornets might be in over their heads.
But clever coaching tweaks and better two-way efforts have pushed the Hornets to within a single victory of the franchise's first playoff series win since 2002. And with Game 6 shifting back to Time Warner Cable Arena—a building where the Hornets have won 15 of their last 17 outings—this early underdog now has the unmistakable appearance of a favorite.
And it has three major changes to thank for its suddenly advantageous position.
1. Supersized Starting Five
The biggest strategic move in this series was, like many great innovations, born out of necessity.
When the Hornets lost Nicolas Batum to left foot and ankle injuries late in Game 2, head coach Steve Clifford was backed into a corner. Despite playing only 70 games in the regular season, Batum had logged the team's second-most minutes. The versatile swingman was also their team leader in assists (5.8 per game) and No. 2 scorer (14.9 points per game).
There were no internal options available who could replicate his across-the-board skill set. But the least disruptive choice seemed to be promoting someone like Jeremy Lamb, a similarly lengthy athlete with an occasionally fiery three-point stroke.
Clifford, however, plucked a different card out of his hand. Rather than continuing the small-ball style that had helped Charlotte post its best record since 2000, Clifford opted to get big. Marvin Williams slid his 6'9" frame over to the small forward spot, and rookie 7-footer Frank Kaminsky joined the opening lineup for just the fourth time of the season.
Up to that point, the Hornets had been outscored 238-194 in back-to-back losses to Miami. They've rolled off three consecutive victories and controlled the scoreboard 275-253 since.
"They were really hurting us on the pick-and-roll game," Clifford explained before Charlotte's 90-88 Game 5 win Wednesday. "Part of it is, watching it, it's the basic stuff ... When you're coming off the pick-and-roll, and you know you can zip those passes without any chance of a deflection—especially, like [Dwyane] Wade and [Joe] Johnson now—those guys were so big and they were snapping passes over us. Playing Marvin at the 3 has helped with that."
When Heat attackers are turning the corner now, they're seeing a massive roadblock in their path. By denying the straight-line pass, the Hornets have given themselves time to recover for deflections and/or forced turnovers.
Charlotte's defense averaged a league-worst 8.0 deflections in Games 1 and 2. That number has grown by nearly 50 percent in the three games since, up to 11.3.
"Our pick-and-roll defense has gotten a lot better over the course of this series," Kemba Walker said.
It's not just about shrinking the passing lanes with bigger bodies and longer limbs. It's also keeping a more intimidating presence underneath to meet Miami's explosive center Hassan Whiteside at the rim.
The 7-footer feasted on point-blank opportunities early on, averaging 19.0 points on a blistering 89.5 percent shooting in Miami's two victories. Every number has tailed considerably since the switch.
His scoring dropped from 19.0 to 10.7. He's getting just 6.3 shots now, down from 9.5 before. And that field-goal percentage has come back to Earth at 57.9 percent. Admittedly, he's dealt with both a thigh bruise—that he's said is "getting better"—and, more recently, a right hand injury, but the strategic change has undoubtedly played a role in his declining production.
"When you have more size on the floor, you have bigger bodies meeting Whiteside's rolls," Clifford said. "So, instead of constantly having a small guy meeting him on the roll where he's getting deeper...he was catching the ball say 12 or 14 feet [from the basket] versus five or six feet."
Collectively, the Heat have managed a meager 88.8 points per 100 possessions over the past three games. For context, the Philadelphia 76ers had this season's least efficient offense at 96.6 per 100.
2. (Temporarily) Abandoning Offensive Identity
Despite splitting the first four games of this series, the Hornets didn't look like themselves until Game 5. And that was largely by design—though, Miami's defense deserves credit for forcing the change.
The Charlotte squad that had rampaged through the post-All-Star-break stretch with the league's third-best record wasn't the one claiming key home victories in Games 3 and 4. That group surgically carved up defenses with precision passing and prolific perimeter shooting.
Those options weren't available to the team that survived a pair of grind-it-out games.
"They're not helping off the shooters, which we don't play many guys that can't shoot," Clifford said. "And they're literally saying, 'Drive the ball and see if you can score over our size.' ... If we're trying to play our regular offense, we wouldn't be scoring at all."
After averaging 11.1 triples and 22.4 assists in the season's second half, Charlotte saw those averages sliced to 4.5 and 14.0, respectively, in Games 3 and 4. And yet, the Hornets still found a way to come out on the right side of the scoreboard. They simplified the attack to more one-on-one opportunities, and the Heat couldn't corral Walker off the bounce.
Compounding that problem, Miami struggled just as much keeping Jeremy Lin off the free-throw line or out of the paint.
"Walker and Lin, they put you on your heels," Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said after his team surrendered 55 combined points to the backcourt pair in Game 4. "They are aggressive and make you have to defend with position."
Charlotte's steady stream of dribble penetrations ultimately collapsed Miami's defensive position. The Heat had to commit extra defenders to the middle and lost their grip on the shooters they'd largely contained through four games.
That allowed the Hornets to return to their preferred playing style. They averaged only 26.5 uncontested shots through the first four outings. In Game 5, they found a series-high 36 and not coincidentally made 12 threes—only four fewer than they hit in Games 1 through 4 combined.
3. Clogging the Paint
The way Miami's offense raced through its first two wins, no one would have blamed Clifford for panicking. The Heat looked borderline unguardable, totaling 238 points on 57.8 percent shooting from the field and 52.9 from range.
But there was calm—not fear—permeating throughout the Charlotte locker room. The Hornets felt the law of averages would eventually prove the Heat's streaky shooting to be unsustainable.
"Guys that we wouldn't mind shooting the ball during the season, they were knocking them down," Al Jefferson said following Game 2.
Rather than overreact to Miami's outside shooters, Charlotte centered its efforts on fortifying its interior defense. The Heat's dribble drives were routinely met with three (or more) defenders in the paint. If that meant leaving Miami players alone on the perimeter, the Hornets were willing to take that chance.
When Justise Winslow, a 27.6 percent three-point shooter in the regular season, strayed away from the basket, Charlotte didn't bother paying him any defensive attention.
"We're playing by the numbers," Clifford said. "We're saying, 'You don't have a lot of range shooters, OK? Shoot.' ... What we're trying to do is not foul and not let the ball in the paint."
It's been mission (mostly) accomplished on that front.
The Hornets have built sizable advantages in free-throw makes (113-82) and attempts (137-113). And they've shaved the Heat's paint points down from 51.0 in Games 1 and 2 to 35.3 during 3 through 5.
With the lack of outside shooting, every Miami offensive possession has become a race against the clock. If this group can't get out and run, it's having to cycle through third and fourth options or force up tough shots as its primary looks are consistently denied.
"They're a good defensive team," Wade said, "and you're not going to be able to get anything you want in a half-court set."
The Heat were getting exactly that for the first two games. It's been a completely different series since.
Overlooked and underrated, the Hornets could be just 48 minutes away from solving the first-round puzzle few thought they could crack.
All quotes obtained firsthand. Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com.
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