NBA Playoffs 2016: Updated Postseason Bracket Picture, Results and Predictions
Unfortunately, there's no fast-forward button for the NBA postseason.
This year's first round has fans longing for the old best-of-five format. Lopsided victories have permeated the schedule, and two of the rare exceptions resulted from Stephen Curry sitting out Games 2 and 3 against the Houston Rockets. On Friday night, two teams took a step closer to a sweep.
This weekend will either add some needed intrigue or push one-sided series closer to the finish line. Sounds like a win-win. With four games apiece on Saturday and Sunday, there are plenty of chances to spark the proceedings.
Will the playoffs receive a welcome injection of captivating games? Here are some predictions for what lies ahead this round.
| Matchup | Series | Prediction |
| No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 Detroit Pistons | 3-0 CLE | CLE in 4 |
| No. 2 Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 Indiana Pacers | 2-1 TOR | TOR in 6 |
| No. 3 Miami Heat vs. No. 6 Charlotte Hornets | 2-0 MIA | MIA in 6 |
| No. 4 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 Boston Celtics | 2-1 ATL | ATL in 6 |
| Matchup | Series | Prediction |
| No. 1 Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 Houston Rockets | 2-1 GS | GS in 5 |
| No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 Memphis Grizzlies | 3-0 SA | SA in 4 |
| No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks | 2-1 OKC | OKC in 5 |
| No. 4 Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 Portland Trail Blazers | 2-0 LAC | LAC in 5 |
No Western Conference Series Goes Beyond Five Games
There's a clearly defined class structure in the Western Conference, where the top four seeds are significantly superior to the other four. That will make for two worthwhile semifinal appetizers to a Warriors-San Antonio Spurs dream showdown but not before an underwhelming first round.
Sure, the Dallas Mavericks stole one on the road from the Oklahoma City Thunder. Even so, the Thunder have outscored the Mavericks by 66 points this series.
When Kevin Durant doesn't labor through an all-time bad shooting performance, Dallas is no match for OKC's frenetic tempo and high-powered offense. Kudos on the one upset, but don't count on the league's second-best offense scoring 84 points again behind 26 Durant misses.
Maybe onlookers just liked the Portland Trail Blazers' feel-good story of not tumbling without LaMarcus Aldridge. Or maybe they just wanted to see the Los Angeles Clippers fail. For whatever reason, this Nos. 4-5 matchup was branded as a far fairer fight.
The Clippers have instead coasted to victories of 20 and 21 points. In their second victory, Chris Paul compiled 25 points, six rebounds and five assists without a single turnover. Damian Lillard, meanwhile, is shooting 33.3 percent with 11 assists and eight turnovers this series.
Lillard could catch fire and even up the series at home, where Portland went 28-13 during the season. Yet the Clippers have not received enough credit as a 53-win squad that didn't miss a beat without Blake Griffin. With Paul pounding Lillard and a much-maligned bench contributing well, the Clippers are poised to end this matchup earlier than expected in five.
As for the Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies...next?
This full prediction is ultimately contingent on Curry's availability for Game 4 and beyond. Even without him, the Warriors won Game 2 before Game 3's 97-96 loss to the Houston Rockets. With him, they jumped out to a 27-point lead at halftime of the opening game.
As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, the star shooter's presence opens up the court for everyone:
Game 3's loss will likely add a little urgency to his return. According to Warriors sideline reporter Rosalyn Gold-Onwude, the NBA's leading scorer anticipates getting cleared by coaches to suit up on Sunday:
If he's back at anywhere near 100 percent, it's curtains on Houston's topsy-turvy season.
Heat's Offense Cools Down in Charlotte
Despite their respective Nos. 3 and 6 seeds, the Miami Heat and Charlotte Hornets entered the playoffs boasting identical 48-34 records. In fact, the lower-slotted Hornets earned a higher scoring margin (plus-2.7 to Miami's plus-1.6) and won 18 of their final 23 regular-season games.
This series had the makings of a close back-and-forth battle. Instead, Miami decimated Charlotte twice at home, winning both games by a combined 44 points.
The Heat, who finished the season No. 12 in offensive rating, suddenly look like a deadly combination of the Golden State Warriors and Pat Riley's old Showtime Los Angeles Lakers. They have registered 238 points on a 63.4 effective field-goal percentage, giving their entire squad a scoring efficiency slightly better than Curry.
They have earned 1.32 points per possession; Golden State generated 1.13 during its 73-win regular season. Before penciling Miami into the NBA Finals, this is not sustainable for an above-average offense missing Chris Bosh.
Even head coach Erik Spoelstra cautioned against counting on this dominant stretch, per the Miami Herald's Manny Navarro:
Nevertheless, the Miami offense only needs to click two more times to knock off Charlotte. Per ESPN.com's Justin Verrier, Hornets head coach Steve Clifford spoke against making major adjustments to counteract Miami's scoring frenzy:
"I know my team. I watch my team closer than anybody. I’m going to look and figure out what the problems are. If we need to make an adjustment, we’ll make it. But this isn’t they’re running stuff that we’re having trouble guarding. We’ve got to keep the ball out of the middle. We’ve got to be cleaner with our basic coverages. We’ve got to make sure we’re not turning the ball over and staying organized on offense. So it’s not all these great ideas or things that have to change or this plan is terribly wrong. Sometimes the other team just makes shots, OK? So that’s really what’s going on.
"
The most obvious area for Heat regression? A team that shot 33.6 percent from three-point range won't keep making over half of its buckets from downtown.
Those two victories are already deposited in the bank, and the Heat have a strong defense to counteract a return to earth. Let's be careful, however, of declaring this series finished and dreaming ahead to the Heat squaring off against LeBron James. The Hornets went 30-11 at home, and it's unlikely Goran Dragic and Luol Deng will keep shooting them out of the gym.
Look for the Hornets to seize at least one of their two upcoming home games to extend the series.
Advanced stats courtesy of NBA.com/Stats unless otherwise noted.
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