College Football Teams with Best Shot to Go Undefeated in 2016
Every team strives for it, yet a select few—if any—reach it. The undefeated regular season in college football is a monumental task, one that even the best teams fall short of each year.
In an unpredictable sport in which one play or one call could be the difference between winning and losing, getting through a 12-game schedule with a goose egg in the loss column comes down to more than just raw talent. For example, Alabama, which has been built on a streak of No. 1 recruiting classes, hasn't gone undefeated in regular-season play since 2009.
Undefeated teams usually need the right mix of high-level production, favorable breaks in the schedule and some good fortune. Many of the most talented teams in the country play in some of the toughest conferences, making a perfect season seem unlikely from the start. Last year, only Clemson and Iowa were able to pull off the 12-0 start.
As we look ahead to the 2015 campaign, here are seven teams with the best shots at going undefeated in the regular season—since those games are the only matchups set at this point. This isn't a list of the seven best teams in college football. These are the seven teams that have the best chances of going undefeated, based on a combination of returning talent, overall schedule strength and location of their toughest matchups.
Which teams do you think will go 12-0 in the regular season this year? Shout them out in the comments below.
Baylor
1 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 68-70
Returning starters: 10 (5 offense, 5 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. TCU, at Oklahoma
In the journey to pull off an undefeated regular season, Baylor already has a good-sized head start compared to the rest of the pack. The Bears have another pillow-soft nonconference schedule this season, which features FCS school Northwestern State, SMU and Rice.
Baylor only has to go outside of the state of Texas three times all season, with the toughest one of those matchups coming against defending conference champion Oklahoma on Nov. 12. Oklahoma State and TCU both have to visit Waco this year, putting the Bears in a good position against the rest of the "Big Four" in the Big 12.
Offensively, Baylor is a strong bet to lead the nation in points and yards per game for another season behind returning quarterback Seth Russell—a legitimate Heisman contender if healthy—and a backfield that returns two 1,000-yard rushers and two more 500-yard ones from last season. Defensively, Baylor has to rebuild its front but has the advantage of returning its entire secondary, which will be helpful in a pass-happy league.
If Baylor can get past Oklahoma away from home this season, it's set up well to make a run toward an undefeated regular season. Five of its first six games are practically guaranteed wins, and it can rely on a lot of games inside the Lone Star State this season.
Clemson
2 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 60-76
Returning starters: 12 (8 offense, 4 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Louisville, at Florida State
Like Baylor, Clemson is staring down one major road game against its biggest conference competition heading into 2016. Other than that, the slate is perfect for another undefeated run.
Clemson plays one of the weakest schedules of any Power Five team in college football this season. Six of its 11 FBS opponents didn't make a bowl game last season. The season-opening trip to Auburn could be somewhat tricky, considering those Tigers are predictably unpredictable. But Clemson will be widely expected to take care of business there as well as early-season home matchups against Louisville and NC State.
The Tigers are returning Heisman front-runner Deshaun Watson at quarterback and an incredibly deep supporting cast that includes top running back Wayne Gallman, six players who caught at least 20 passes last season and top 2015 receiver Mike Williams, who missed almost the entirety of last season with a neck injury. On defense, Clemson has to replace the majority of its starters, but it had to do the exact same thing in 2015 before making a run to the national title game.
It's hard to go undefeated, and it's even harder for a team to do it in back-to-back seasons. But Clemson has everything in its favor heading into the 2016 campaign, and another perfect regular season from Dabo Swinney's team wouldn't shock anyone.
Houston
3 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 66-75
Returning starters: 11 (5 offense, 6 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Oklahoma, vs. Louisville
Houston took the college football world by storm last season by knocking on the door of a perfect regular season, taking home the first AAC title game and defeating Florida State in the Peach Bowl on New Year's Eve. The Cougars' follow-up effort could be just as impressive, if not more so.
A Tom Herman offense is going to be consistently tough for opponents, and the former Ohio State coordinator can lean on the talents of quarterback Greg Ward Jr., who was a dual-threat touchdown factory last season all by himself. He'll play behind an experienced line and a reloaded cast of playmakers who will help out tremendously.
Defensively, Houston has a number of key players to replace but should stay stingy in 2016. It can build off the successes of last year, especially in games against high-powered offenses such as Oklahoma and Louisville—the two daunting tasks between the Cougars and a possibly perfect record. Houston proved last season it could knock off giants, and it'll have an advantage of playing both OU and Louisville (which it beat on the road last year) inside Houston city limits.
Houston's undefeated dreams could evaporate as early as Week 1 when the Sooners come to town. But if it can pull off the home upset, it's set up well to make a huge run again in an AAC that isn't returning as much star power elsewhere. Living up to the hype will be tough, but Herman's Cougars have enough firepower to make the College Football Playoff committee sweat down the stretch.
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Iowa
4 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 66-72
Returning starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Michigan
Iowa's surprise undefeated run last year was one of the stories of the season, but public perception soured on the Hawkeyes after their losses to Michigan State and Stanford in the postseason. And while many expect Iowa to regress to its usual standard this fall, the projections are in its favor for a similar storybook season.
Kirk Ferentz's team took full advantage of a favorable schedule last season, and this year's slate isn't that much more intimidating—outside of a visit from high-rising Michigan, that is. Still, the Wolverines have to come to Iowa City, as do most of the Hawkeyes' toughest opponents in Big Ten play. Out of conference, Iowa's biggest test will come against FCS powerhouse North Dakota State.
Iowa should be able to follow the same type of blueprint that it did in 2015. C.J. Beathard is back to command the Hawkeyes with steady and efficient quarterback play, and he'll have plenty of options at running back and wide receiver to target. The defense returns the majority of its starters, including an experienced secondary led by Thorpe Award winner Desmond King.
The Hawkeyes' toughest tests are well spaced out, and they don't have to do too much reloading on either side of the ball for 2016. While it's definitely risky to bet on Iowa for a second straight season, Ferentz's squad has a lot going for it this far in advance.
LSU
5 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 95-50
Returning starters: 18 (9 offense, 9 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Ole Miss, vs. Alabama
Going undefeated in the SEC is a herculean task, and few have done it over the last several seasons, even when the conference was on its national championship streak. But out of the top title contenders in the league, LSU appears to have the best shot of running the table.
While defending national champion Alabama has to play USC, Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU all away from home in 2016, the Bayou Bengals have the advantage of playing their toughest opponents inside intimidating Death Valley. Combine that favorable slate with the fact that no team in college football returns more starters this year than LSU, and it's easy to fall in love with the Tigers in the preseason.
Leonard Fournette should terrorize defenses out of the LSU backfield this season, and the passing game has nowhere to go but up after returning quarterback Brandon Harris and his top three receivers from a season ago. Dave Aranda, who developed top-10 defenses at Wisconsin, is inheriting an experienced and athletic group of playmakers in his first season as the Tigers' defensive coordinator.
LSU has its fair share of question marks—Harris' consistency, new offensive line starters, transitions to a new system on defense and the constant threat of letdown games—but there isn't a team in the country that doesn't have their own issues this far in advance. But considering the home-friendly schedule and the immense amount of elite talent back in Baton Rouge this season, LSU has a good chance at perfection.
Notre Dame
6 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 98-65
Returning starters: 10 (5 offense, 5 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Michigan State, vs. Stanford, vs. Miami, at USC
Speaking of question marks, Notre Dame is an intriguing team heading into the 2016 season. The Fighting Irish have to replace the majority of their starters, but they showed great depth last year by rallying to a New Year's Six bowl in the face of a huge rash of injuries.
While Notre Dame's 2016 schedule isn't a breeze, the tests are spaced out well and the true road games are few. That's a recipe for a huge campaign, especially if the Irish can hit the ground running with all their new starters and whoever emerges from the hotly contested quarterback derby between Malik Zaire and DeShone Kizer. Many of the players stepping into new roles this year gained valuable experience in 2015.
Notre Dame plays Michigan State, Stanford and Miami all at home this season. By the time it plays its only road game against a projected Top 25 team, USC, the Fighting Irish will be plenty experienced. There are trap games all across the schedule, from the opening road trip at revenge-minded Texas to the under-the-radar ACC teams that ND drew this year. But there aren't any brutal back-to-backs or terrifying road trips.
If the Irish can get off to a quick start before facing Michigan State at home in Week 3, they should be able to lean on their home-field advantage and their 2015 momentum en route to a huge season. While no one is calling Notre Dame's schedule "easy," it's the perfect balance of challenging and favorable for a team that wants to get back into the national championship picture.
San Diego State
7 of 7
FBS opponents' combined 2015 record: 58-82
Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: None
The Group of Five buzz heading into 2016 will mostly focus on Houston and the AAC, with some love thrown to the usual suspects at Boise State and whoever can emerge from the MAC's dog pile of contenders. But don't sleep on defending Mountain West champion San Diego State.
Last year, San Diego State shook off a rough September and won its final 10 games. This season, the Aztecs should be more prepared to handle the early stretch, as they return most of their starters—including star running back Donnel Pumphrey, interception magnet Damontae Kazee and do-it-all defender Calvin Munson. The base of the team that swept the Mountain West is back for Rocky Long and his staff.
The schedule is more than favorable, too, for the Aztecs. The toughest team on their schedule is California, which will have brand-new starters all across its Air Raid offense when it comes to San Diego in Week 2. Only four opponents SDSU faces in 2016 had winning records last year, as it avoids Boise State in cross-divisional play and gets a bye week between winnable road games at Northern Illinois and South Alabama.
According to Bill Connelly of SB Nation, San Diego State is projected to have at least a 49 percent chance of winning every single one of its regular-season games. The Aztecs will need to rebuild the passing element of their run-heavy offense, but they have few question marks and a high ceiling for 2016. They have everything they need to win all 12 of their contests.
Stats courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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