Putting a Number on How Many Major Leaguers Are in the Nationals' Farm System

Over the past week or two, I have been poring over the Nationals' 2009 minor league statistics in preparation for a series of articles that will start when the season finally (and thankfully) comes to an end.

I began to feel much better about the state of the team's minor league system and began to count the players that—based on stats and comments by team management—seem capable of succeeding at the major league level.

I got to 16, though by no means is this list totally inclusive.

Stephen Strasburg, Colin Balester, Jack McGeary, Jeff Smoker, Brad Meyers, Jordan Zimmermann, Michael Burgess, Chris Marrero, Justin Maxwell, Shairon Martis, Destin Hood, Derick Norris, P.J. Ramirez, Ian Desmond, Ross Detweiler and Drew Storen.

That's 16 out of roughly 150 players (not counting the Dominican teams), not exactly a large number to be sure.

I then compared the current Nationals with the farm clubs of three other teams from 2000, the Expos, Yankees, and Braves.

I was trying to see how many players each team had seven years ago that made it to the major leagues and made some contribution. I didn't count guys who failed; only those who either started or was valuable as a reserve player:

Atlanta Braves: (8) Wes Helms, Mark De Rosa, Marcus Giles, Jason Marquis, Ryan Langerhans, Rafael Furcal, Horacio Ramirez, and Wilson Betemit

New York Yankees: (6) Ted Lilly, Alfonso Soriano, Zach Day (stretching my parameters just a bit), Juan Rivera, Brandon Claussen, Wily Mo Pena, and Chien Ming Wang.

Montreal Expos: (9) Tony Armas, Milton Bradley, Brian Schneider, Joey Eischen, Brad Wilkerson, Jamey Carroll, Brandon Phillips, Shawn Hill, and Grady Sizemore.

So it would seem that at any given time, there are about seven to eight players in any given minor league system that will make it to the major leagues and produce.

What does that mean for the Nationals?

If a well-stocked farm system is going to produce seven players, then one like the Nationals, better than it was but still not fully productive, will probably produce four or five.

And the 16 I counted didn't include several others who were considered real prospects just a year or so ago, players like Kory Casto, Adam Carr, and Leonard Davis.

I could probably make a case that 25-30 Nationals’ players have the potential to become major league players. A little more digging at baseball-reference.com found that roughly 20 percent of true prospects have a productive major league career.

So if the Nationals have 30 players considered to be talented, we would then expect roughly six of them to play in Washington one day.

The level with the fewest major league prospects—and this seems to be league wide—was in the rookie leagues, where many of the Nationals' prospects played over the last couple of seasons.

That's not terribly promising for the here and now.

Without a doubt, the Nationals' future is much brighter today than it was a year or two ago. That said, we can't assume that each one of these promising kids is going to make it to Washington one day.

Which ones might make it?

It's hard to say. I'd guess that two out of the Marrero-Maxwell-Burgess-Norris-Hood-Desmond group and four among Strasburg, Balester, McGeary, Smoker, Zimmermann, Martis, Storen, and Detwiler will have some impact at the major league level, be it with the Nationals or another organization.

Of course, help is on the way as the Nationals again have the dubious honor of choosing first in next year’s amateur draft, and will likely draft phenom Bryce Harper with the top pick.

But all of this is just a guess. Unlike the NFL and NBA, projecting baseball players is more art than science. For every Stephen Strasburg who makes it there is someone like Derrick Norris who comes out of nowhere and seems destined for stardom.