Make-or-Break Games for Every Top 25 College Football Team
Every college football team can look back on a previous campaign and point toward a specific game that changed the course of the season.
However, a majority of those contests were losses that essentially ended a program's aspirations. Only a handful of teams exit a respective year able to forget the "what-if" scenarios.
The list of the 2016 season's make-or-break games is ordered using Bleacher Report's most recent preseason top 25.
Each contest could ruin national championship hopes, conference title dreams or—in cases in which neither of those achievements are likely—chances at a meaningful victory in a rivalry matchup.
25. San Diego State Aztecs: Nov. 12 at Nevada Wolfpack
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Since 1986, San Diego State has managed a single outright conference title. But it was last season.
The Aztecs, who last repeated as league winners in the 1970s, will be among the favorites to claim the Mountain West. Donnel Pumphrey, a two-time 1,600-yard rusher, returns for one final year.
San Diego State is on the weaker side of next year's MWC, so it avoids both Boise State and Air Force during the regular season. That leaves Nevada—which returns most of its production—as the primary competition for the West Division crown.
In all likelihood, the winner will advance to the conference championship game.
24. Texas Longhorns: Oct. 8 vs. Oklahoma Sooners
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Although the rebuild continues at Texas, patience isn't exactly a strength of the program. Head coach Charlie Strong might've saved his job with a stunning win over rival Oklahoma.
Why Strong was even on the hot seat is ridiculous to begin with, but that's a different story.
Still, the Longhorns simply aren't good yet. They desperately need to settle the quarterback dilemma—something easier said than done—and shore up a defense that allowed 30 points per game.
Once again, the Red River Showdown will determine whether Texas accomplishes something meaningful in a season, because it's not prepared for a Big 12 run.
Improvement is coming. Be patient, Longhorns fans.
23. Miami Hurricanes: Oct. 15 vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
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If any Texas fans are skeptical about promised improvement, they can use 2011-15 Miami as evidence to be doubtful.
Throughout Al Golden's tenure, the 'Canes were "trending up," needed to "trust the process" and rebuild the team "brick by brick." "It starts with me," he would say.
"At the end of the day"—after a 58-0 beatdown against Clemson, to be exact—Miami fired the phrase-loving coach.
Much of the issue stems from Golden's inability to lead the Hurricanes to a pivotal victory in ACC play. In 2016, Mark Richt's team will attempt to dethrone North Carolina. The U lost to UNC 59-21 last year.
Florida State is always on the schedule, and the rivalry has been recently slanted in its favor. Miami cannot afford a second conference loss, especially not to the Coastal Division favorite.
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22. Oregon Ducks: Nov. 12 vs. Stanford Cardinal
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"What is Oregon's ceiling?" It's a question many will pose in the coming months, and the answers will likely vary greatly.
Every prediction is based around one's projection for Dakota Prukop. The Ducks have plenty of skill-position talent to surround the Montana State transfer, namely Royce Freeman and Darren Carrington.
However, the defense was dreadful in 2015 and probably won't get better. Oregon might need to out-offense its best opponents—the most difficult of which is Stanford.
The Cardinal figure to fall short of another 11-1 campaign, so the victor here earns an important tiebreaker for what should be a tight Pac-12 North race.
21. TCU Horned Frogs: Nov. 5 at Baylor Bears
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Consequent to the departures of Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson, TCU will tread a difficult line between rebuilding and reloading.
Gary Patterson has built a terrific program, but the Horned Frogs must chase down Oklahoma and Baylor in 2016. Those schools bookend a critical stretch, with Baylor coming at the end.
When TCU makes the short trip to Waco on Nov. 5, it'll have a clear understanding of its Big 12 outlook. Like Texas, this rivalry game could be the difference between a disappointing or respectable year.
Perhaps a win keeps the Horned Frogs in the conference picture. But if that's not the case, they'll have a chance to use a victory over highly ranked Baylor as evidence for a brighter 2017.
20. Iowa Hawkeyes: Nov. 12 vs. Michigan Wolverines
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Iowa ain't played nobody in 2015.
That criticism was somewhat fair, but the Hawkeyes deserve credit for actually winning the 12 games on the schedule. If going undefeated were so easy, more teams would do it.
Next season, the road to a division title will be a little tougher because Iowa hosts Michigan in mid-November. Should the Hawkeyes slip up anywhere else on the schedule—like to a sneaky good Nebraska squad—a second straight West crown may slip away.
Beating the Wolverines would give Iowa its signature win and take Kirk Ferentz's club one step closer to a second straight appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game.
19. Washington Huskies: Oct. 8 at Oregon Ducks
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The fate of Washington's season will likely be decided by the first week of October.
Stanford travels to Seattle on Sept. 30, then the Huskies head to Autzen Stadium to challenge Oregon the following week.
Assuming an earlier matchup versus Arizona goes Washington's way, the consecutive outings against Pac-12 North foes can either spark a run or show the program is still a year away from contention.
Splitting the games is an absolute necessity for a chance. Winning both means the Huskies should be headed to the conference title.
18. North Carolina Tar Heels: Oct. 1 at Florida State Seminoles
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North Carolina is a dark horse for the national championship. However, 2015 offered more evidence an early loss for UNC is more detrimental than at a powerhouse program.
In fairness, falling to South Carolina—which ended up being just awful—wasn't a good loss. Opening the 2016 campaign against Georgia will be even tougher.
Regardless of the season-opening result, though, UNC can either rejoin the title pursuit and/or secure a head-turning victory on the road at Florida State.
At worst, the Tar Heels would turn their focus to a Coastal Division championship. But that would merely be a consolation prize for a team with the offensive firepower to achieve more.
17. USC Trojans: Nov. 12 at Washington Huskies
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In three of the last four years, the UCLA-USC matchup has contained Pac-12 implications. But the Trojans can only worry about that when it arrives.
USC's schedule is brutal. In addition to nonconference clashes with Alabama and Notre Dame, Clay Helton's crew has crossover games against both Stanford and Oregon.
Maybe the Trojans go 2-0, maybe they're 1-1 or even 0-2. Knowing the division, though, a couple of conference losses might not be crushing. But a potential third—or fourth, depending on Sept. 23 at Utah—coming up short at Washington would be a serious issue.
Let's put it this way: If USC returns to the Pac-12 title game, there's no question the Trojans deserve it.
16. Michigan State Spartans: Oct. 29 vs. Michigan Wolverines
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September clashes with Notre Dame and Wisconsin are aptly described as "show-me" games for the Spartans, but success or failure will be molded in late October.
Last season, Michigan State stunned Michigan on the road. The punt-fumble won't leave the rivalry's highlight reel anytime soon.
But the Wolverines unquestionably played well enough to win. Jim Harbaugh's team returns most of its starters and key contributors, while the Spartans must replace big names all over the roster.
Considering the building hype around U-M and Ohio State, 2016 could be Mark Dantonio's greatest underdog story yet. But a victory against the Wolverines is imperative.
15. Georgia Bulldogs: Oct. 29 vs. Florida Gators
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Projections for Georgia will be all over. Of course, having UNC, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida, Auburn and Georgia Tech on the schedule will do that to a team.
Fortunately, the Bulldogs can rebound from any early-season struggles because the Vols and Gators take on Alabama and LSU, respectively.
That means the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party will shape the final month of the race for the SEC East.
Florida dismantled Georgia last year en route to the division crown. First-year coach Kirby Smart shouldn't let that happen again.
14. Stanford Cardinal: Oct. 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
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Washington State is not Stanford's toughest opponent. That's Notre Dame. Wazzu is not the marquee opponent. That's Oregon.
But an immediate foray into conference action puts the Cardinal in a difficult spot.
USC, UCLA, Washington and Washington State are four of Stanford's opening five games. Christian McCaffrey and Co. better start fast if the Cardinal want a Pac-12 championship.
Otherwise, they'll simply be playing spoiler in road contests against Notre Dame and Oregon.
13. Louisville Cardinals: Sept. 17 vs. Florida State Seminoles
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Lamar Jackson seems poised for college football stardom, but is Louisville for real? We'll have that answer by Sept. 17.
Florida State is built to compete for the national championship. Upending an opponent like that could catapult the Cardinals to an unexpected run.
Or not.
Louisville won't be favored in Tallahassee, and a home meeting versus Clemson looms two weeks later. The Cardinals might have no Atlantic Division hopes remaining after Oct. 1.
With a victory at FSU, though, Louisville has the potential to create a messy tiebreaker.
12. Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Oct. 15 vs. Stanford Cardinal
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Notre Dame has a heavy burden of proof needed to show it deserves a spot in the College Football Playoff. In other words, the best route there is going undefeated.
Perhaps the Irish could recover from a quick loss to Michigan State. They'll open 2016 with a top-15 ranking anyway and could steadily climb the polls while other programs beat up on each other.
However, an Oct. 15 showdown against Stanford will make or break the season. Notre Dame will likely enter the contest no worse than 5-1 and presumably 6-0.
Unless Miami, USC or Virginia Tech strings together a remarkable year, the Irish won't have another signature win available. Rebounding from a loss to the Cardinal would be—not impossible—improbable.
11. Ohio State Buckeyes: Nov. 26 vs. Michigan Wolverines
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Ohio State lost an absurd amount of NFL-bound production. Good thing Urban Meyer has signed the nation's second-most talented class since arriving in Columbus.
Nearly as crucial is having J.T. Barrett behind center. He'll lead the Buckeyes' reloading year.
While there's no question the Sept. 17 showdown at Oklahoma is an important tilt, Alabama has twice proved an early loss doesn't crush CFP aspirations. Ohio State's season comes down to The Game.
Michigan vs. Ohio State with the Big Ten and potentially the national championship on the line? Sign us up.
10. Houston Cougars: Nov. 17 vs. Louisville Cardinals
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Oklahoma is also on the docket for Houston, but the result won't define the 2016 season.
Because everything else should be a win. Yes, lofty expectations are dangerous. Tom Herman's crew has earned the forthcoming hype, though it's contingent on Greg Ward Jr. staying healthy.
In order to have an argument to crash the College Football Playoff, the Cougars absolutely must defeat Louisville. Group of Five affiliation (AAC) and timing (Nov. 17) make it that way.
Otherwise, Houston will settle for trying to ruin another power-conference program's bowl game.
9. Ole Miss Rebels: Oct. 22 at LSU Tigers
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Maybe Ole Miss should try losing to Alabama, because winning didn't work out in 2014 or 2015.
Lame jokes aside, the Rebels face a gauntlet to open the season. By Sept. 24, they'll have battled Florida State, 'Bama and Georgia—three top-15 teams on this list.
But the Oct. 22 clash with LSU will shape Ole Miss' outlook for the stretch run. Either the Rebels will be undefeated and hold a No. 1 ranking, desperately clawing back toward the CFP conversation or completely off the national radar.
No pressure, Chad Kelly.
8. Tennessee Volunteers: Oct. 15 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
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One of 2016's offseason darlings, Tennessee will widely be projected to reach a bar—winning the SEC East—it hasn't hit since 2007. After all, the offense could be electric with Joshua Dobbs running the show.
He must excel immediately, however, because the Vols have brutal conference games right away. Tennessee will face Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M during a three-week stretch that begins Sept. 24.
Similar to other teams highlighted, the next contest will either a place a stylish bow on a superb series of victories—or crush some dreams.
The Vols haven't gained the upper hand against Alabama since 2006. Unless they earn the tiebreaker over both the Gators and Bulldogs, Tennessee cannot afford a second SEC loss.
7. Baylor Bears: Nov. 12 at Oklahoma Sooners
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Baylor's dynamic offense will throttle most of the team's opponents for two months. The road gets tougher in November.
After hosting TCU, the Bears venture to Norman for a date with Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma. Many expect the winner to eventually secure the conference title and possible a CFP berth.
That makes this clash pretty critical, wouldn't you say?
Injuries shattered Baylor's championships dreams in 2015. Hopefully that doesn't stifle the high-scoring matchup again.
6. Oklahoma Sooners: Dec. 3 vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
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If repeating the previous slide is more your style, the argument makes perfect sense. Instead of doing that, though, we'll highlight a season-ending rivalry contest with potential Big 12 implications.
Besides, last season's edition of Bedlam determined the conference champion. Plus, Oklahoma State could be better than in 2015.
The three possible storylines for this contest include winner-take-all, one team looking to ruin its rival's Big 12 hopes or both programs out of contention but fighting for pride.
And a spot in a New Year's Six bowl.
5. LSU Tigers: Nov. 5 vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
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Since 2012, LSU's pre- and post-Alabama record splits are remarkable. Not in a good way.
- Prior to the Tide: 28-5
- Including and after: 9-9
The Tigers entered those four contests boasting a Top 15 ranking but fell short of Top Seven Alabama each time, including a 30-16 loss in 2015 when Leonard Fournette managed just 31 yards rushing.
LSU might be 8-0 when the Crimson Tide invade Death Valley. Will that even matter? History says no, but the Tigers could snap this ugly trend, lest they crumble in November yet again.
4. Florida State Seminoles: Oct. 29 vs. Clemson Tigers
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Florida State's 2016 slate starts tough and remains formidable until the headline showdown against Clemson. Arriving there unblemished certainly won't be easy.
The 'Noles must overcome Ole Miss, Louisville, a sparky South Florida team, North Carolina and rival Miami. Few programs have a more tenuous schedule to open the regular season.
But as long as FSU doesn't fall twice—and that's not expected—the Oct. 29 matchup with the defending ACC champion will heavily influence which squad earns that title this year.
More importantly, the conference champion has a better shot to claim a spot in the College Football Playoff.
3. Michigan Wolverines: Nov. 26 at Ohio State Buckeyes
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The road is Michigan's biggest problem on the path to competing for a national championship.
Earlier slides discussed each of Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio State hosting the Wolverines, who are undeniably on the rise under head coach Jim Harbaugh.
But 2016 will be the Maize and Blue's best shot at chasing the crown. While MSU and OSU must reload, Michigan graduated a mere handful of key players.
Last season, Meyer's Buckeyes blasted the Wolverines, who haven't won the Big Ten since 2004 or in Columbus since 2000. There's no shortage of motivation for Michigan.
Whether everything or nothing is on the line, Harbaugh's team will want this victory badly.
2. Clemson Tigers: Oct. 29 at Florida State Seminoles
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This contest is worth repeating, because no other game can affect Clemson in a greater fashion.
Perhaps one year, a conference will send two programs to the CFP. Until that actually happens, however, the reasonable conclusion is four power-conference winners (or Notre Dame) will earn a berth.
Squaring off Oct. 29 doesn't give the Tigers—or Florida State, for that matter—enough time to bounce back from a loss and rejoin the top of the rankings.
One program will exit Doak Campbell Stadium thrilled. The other, well, there's always 2017.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide: Nov. 5 at LSU Tigers
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During each of the last five years, Alabama hasn't dropped more than one regular-season outing. It's not a coincidence the Crimson Tide are 4-1 against LSU in that stretch.
And yes, Nick Saban's 2011 crew atoned for the loss by defeating the Tigers in the national championship.
Though Alabama's dominance will continue in some fashion, facing a schedule that sends the team away from Tuscaloosa for its four toughest opponents—USC, Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU—isn't exactly an inviting task.
But in recent seasons, the Tide have created the storm—not just survived it. They'll attempt to drown the excitement in Death Valley en route to a third straight CFP bid.
Stats from cfbstats.com or B/R research. Quotes obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report CFB Writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
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