MLB Playoff Threat Levels: Who's Dangerous and Who's in Danger

The Major League Baseball Playoffs start next Wednesday, Oct. 7.

Thus far, only three divisions have been clinched: the AL East (New York Yankees), the AL West, and the NL Central (St. Louis Cardinals). But the playoff picture is strikingly clear at this point, with only two races up in question (AL Central/NL Wild Card).

This breakdown is intended to diagnose which teams are peaking at the right time and which teams are slumping heading into the postseason.

Teams are separated into four "threat levels" (from most dangerous to least): Red, Orange, Yellow, and the newest level, Blue.

If you’re team is in the blue level, then it's time to start sweating.

The classification of each team is dependent on their recent body of work, the closeness of the race they are in, and how those factors will translate into postseason momentum.

*Playoff teams determined based upon if the postseason were to begin today*

Red

New York Yankees (clinched AL East and home field advantage)

Joe Girardi will get a chance to keep his team firing strong this week with a three-game series at home with the Kansas City Royals.

The Bronx Bombers not only clinched the AL East this past weekend with a three-game sweep of the Boston Red Sox, but they also locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Since the AL won the All-Star game, they will have home field in the World Series also, although they will go into the playoffs with the best record in the Majors anyway.

The Yankees will also be given the choice of which divisional series setup they want to play in: either an eight-day series starting on Wednesday the seventh, or a seven-day series beginning on Thursday the eighth.

They have been dominant for the entire second half of the season, and with a lineup that has smashed 235 home runs in ’09, the Yankees are a serious force to be reckoned with in October.

St. Louis Cardinals (clinched NL Central)

The Cards wrapped up the Central division, becoming the first NL team to secure a division title.

They have done exactly what they needed to do late in the season—pull away from the Chicago Cubs and secure a title in the Central.

With Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright, and Joel Pineiro set to be a dominant one-two-three punch in the postseason, St. Louis looks to be the most dangerous team in the Senior Circuit right now—without taking into account sluggers Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

The one issue that I think could pop-up is the demanding schedule for the starting staff.

Carpenter will have to pitch Wednesday in the series opener, and then come back on a short three-days rest to pitch on Sunday. Considering all of the arm issues he has had in the past, this could be something to keep an eye on in the playoffs.

Even on short rest, Carpenter is still extremely dominant and until something happens to indicate otherwise, we have to expect he will continue to pitch well into the postseason.

Right now, the Cardinals are focused on edging out the Phillies for the second-best record in the NL, but it might be better suited if they actually go in as the third-seed.

They are tied in the standings right now, but finishing third would pit them against the Dodgers in the first round, a team that the Cardinals have handled well this season.

But for a team that potentially has the MVP (Pujols) and Cy Young (Carpenter), someone is going to have their hands full in the divisional round. 

Orange

Los Angeles Angels (clinched AL West)

The Halos clinched the division for a third consecutive season with a victory over the Texas Rangers on Monday night. 

They are held down in the Orange category because they encountered a season-high four game-losing streak recently, which they broke on Sunday with a victory.

There is going to be one big issue to keep an eye on as the Angels attempt to navigate out of the first round for the first time in four years: The fact that Jason Bulger and Kevin Jepsen have to work the seventh and eighth innings.

Both rookie pitchers have been solid in the second half of the season up to this point, with Jepsen posting a 1.87 ERA and Bulger with an even more impressive mark of 1.17.

The big question will be if they can survive the beast that is postseason baseball and hand the ball over to Brian Fuentes, who leads the Majors in saves.

Los Angeles will play the Boston Red Sox in the opening round for the third straight time and fourth time in six years. 

The biggest challenge when you face the Angels is their relentless hitting from top to bottom in the batting order. One through nine will wear you down in every game of the series, and Boston could be in trouble if the big guns at the front of the rotation aren't at their best. 

Los Angeles Dodgers (clinched playoff berth, best record in NL by two-and-a-half games; NL West magic number: one)

So much had changed in the past few weeks for the Dodgers. They were scoring runs, dominating on the mound, and starting to look like the team that took a strangle hold on the first-half of the season.

But after losing three out of four games to the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Dodgers fell from the Red category down to Orange.

This is mainly because the Dodgers have just lost focus for the past few days.

In the three losses to the last-place Bucs, L.A. committed seven errors. They allowed five unearned runs in an ugly 11-1 loss on Monday afternoon, a game in which had they won, would have clinched the NL West title.

They have also been atrocious on the base paths, losing five runners in the past two games to silly mistakes. That signifies one thing: poor mental focus.

With their magic number stuck at one, the club travels to San Diego for two games with the hope of wrapping up a second consecutive division title.

Be that as it may, the mistakes on the bases are easily correctable and there are a lot of positives for the Boys in Blue right now.

The offense has finally gotten back on track recently behind a huge turn around from Rafael Furcal at the top of the order.Furcal is riding an 11-game hitting streak, batting .358 with four stolen bases and a .429 on-base percentage over that time. 

James Loney has also caught fire and is hitting .394 over his last 19 games. 

Another huge advantage for the Dodgers: Their coaching staff has a combined 12 World Championship rings. 

Yellow

Boston Red Sox (five-and-a-half game lead, AL Wild Card; Magic number: one)

After splitting a four-game set with the Royals last week, the Sox got swept by the Yanks over the weekend to slam the door shut on any hopes of making an improbable high jacking of the AL East title.

One main concern is for Jon Lester, who was drilled by a line drive the other day and had to leave the game. Reports do indicate that he will make his next scheduled start on Thursday, but it has to be a concern to Red Sox nation.

Additionally, Josh Beckett was scratched from his Monday night start because of spasms in his upper back. Again, this one seems like a minor injury, but even the slightest twinge could be easily aggravated at any time.

Never good when you’re two top pitchers are battling injuries in the final week of the season...

Also, Kevin Youkilis entered Monday night in a 6-for-39 slump but finally broke through with a home run.

The team lost and has now dropped four in a row and six of their past eight contests. 

However, there is some positive news: Victor Martinez is a straight up baller.

He continues to pay dividends for the Sox, and his eye-popping play on defense this weekend strengthened his case for most important trading deadline move.

Philadelphia Phillies (four game lead, NL East; Magic number: three)

They might be the defending Champions, but the division still is yet to be clinched for the Phillies with only six games remaining.

They are just 4-6 in their past 10 games, and questions surrounding the bullpen will plague the Champs throughout October.

Just look at what manager Charlie Manuel said after a tough 8-2 loss to the Houston Astros.

"Yeah, I'm concerned about it. We're not playing good right now. We're not hitting the ball."

Most notable was Cole Hamels poor performance, as he allowed six runs and nine hits in six-and-two-thirds innings.

Is it possible that Philadelphia, who used a late-season rally to overtake the Mets the past two seasons, is getting a dose of their own medicine?

I mentioned in the Rockies capsule about how close Atlanta has crept in the Wild Card, but much overlooked is how close they’ve gotten to the Phils in the NL East.

Well, it’s not likely that they will lose the division, because things would really need to fall apart the final six games for them, but anything can happen when the pressure continues to mount.

Blue

Colorado Rockies (two game lead, NL Wild Card; Magic number: five)

The Rockies finally cooled off after four months of playing out of their minds.

They now have a slim two game lead on the Atlanta Braves in the Wild Card race, and the schedule certainly doesn’t favor Jim Tracy’s crew.

Colorado has to face the Milwaukee Brewers and then close out the season with a three-game series at Chavez Ravine against the Dodgers.

The Braves, on the other hand, take on the Marlins for three-game before winding down the year with a four-game tilt against the Washington Nationals (whom Atlanta just swept this weekend).

So the Rockies have some work cut out for them if they want to secure a postseason berth, but they turned things back in the right direction by snatching two out of three games from the Cardinals over the weekend.

They do have the advantage of controlling their own destiny in the final week. If the Rox just win, they’re in; if they lose, however, the Braves will have a chance to capitalize on a late-season surge.

In fact, the Braves are doing their impression of the Rockies circa 2007 by winning 16 of their last 19 games.

Detroit Tigers (two game lead, AL Central; Magic number: six)

The Tigers are in an all-out dogfight with the Twins, and it looks as if they might be too drained if they can squeeze into the postseason.

Tuesday’s twin-billing could see that small lead dissipate in a matter of hours, and suddenly five and a half months of baseball will be rendered meaningless with a tie atop the division.

Honestly, I think the Twins are tougher and have more going for them right now.

It will be very difficult for the Twins to beat Rick Porcello and Justin Verlander in one day, but I just don’t think it’s the Tigers year to dance in October.

No matter what, whichever team wins the division will have little to offer in the postseason.

This race is so tight, and with the current stress of the four-game head-to-head matchup, they are basically taking part in a playoff before the playoffs.

The reward for whoever wins the battle: a first-round meeting with the Yankees next week.