Big Ten Football: Which Teams Will Overachieve and Underachieve in 2016?
The college football season is fewer than five months away, but already expectations are building for programs across the country as spring practices come to a close.
That holds especially true in the Big Ten, which saw its fair share of teams exceed—and fail to live up to—expectations in 2015.
But 2016 brings brand-new opportunities for teams to build on the progress made a year ago or redeem disappointing results. Inevitably, last year will play a role in setting the expectations for each program in the coming year and determining the bar they can either reach, surpass or fail to meet.
Which Big Ten teams will be pleasant surprises and which will be considered disappointments in the coming season? That remains to be seen.
But until then, here are some picks for overachievers and underachievers in the Big Ten in 2016.
Overachieve: Maryland
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After a 3-9 season that saw head coach Randy Edsall fired midway through the year, the bar isn't very high for Maryland to overachieve in the coming year.
And with the schedule the Terrapins are slated to play, they shouldn't have to wait long to exceed expectations in 2016.
Following a nonconference slate that will see Maryland face an unimpressive run of Howard, FIU and UCF, the Terrapins will enjoy a bye week before facing the only team in the Big Ten to possess a worse record than they did in 2015, Purdue. Those are four winnable games for new head coach D.J. Durkin's squad, which will return 93 percent of its offensive production from last season, per SB Nation's Bill Connelly.
The rest of the Terrapins' path won't be as kind, although games against Indiana and Rutgers are certainly winnable and their roster is talented enough to pull an upset here or there. After such a disappointing 2015, however, a potential 4-0 start to the season would already have Maryland on pace to surpass the admittedly low expectations in College Park.
Underachieve: Wisconsin
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Looking at Wisconsin's roster in 2016, there's a lot to like about the Badgers' outlook for the coming year.
After an impressive 10-3 debut season under head coach Paul Chryst that included a season-ending win over USC in the Holiday Bowl, Wisconsin should seemingly only improve with the return of running back Corey Clement, who was essentially a non-factor due to injuries and off-field issues in 2015. And while quarterback Joel Stave's departure could be cause for concern, presumed started Bart Houston has shined in his limited opportunities in Madison.
But upon glancing at the Badgers' upcoming schedule, their outlook becomes much bleaker. Not only are their three cross-divisional games against the Big Ten East's best—Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State—but those are the first three teams they'll face in conference play, just prior to taking on defending Big Ten West champ Iowa in Iowa City.
Factor in a season opener against LSU, and a 2-5 start to the year isn't out of the realm of possibility for Wisconsin. Regardless of how the rest of the season would potentially play out, that would certainly qualify as an underachieving campaign for the Badgers in 2016.
Overachieve: Nebraska
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After a 5-7 regular-season debut under head coach Mike Riley, Nebraska showed plenty of promise with its year-ending win over UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl.
Still, a losing season is a losing season, and as a result, expectations have dwindled in Lincoln for the coming year.
But while last season may have been a disappointment, the Cornhuskers appear poised to turn their program around sooner than later. Plus, it doesn't hurt that advanced statistics from Connelly show Nebraska wasn't as unimpressive as its record suggested in 2015.
Add in that the Huskers will be returning 78 percent of its overall production, including 94 percent on offense, and Year 2 should be much smoother sailing for Riley than its predecessor. Nebraska may eventually pop up as a popular sleeper pick, but with such a disappointing 2015, the expectations are still low enough for the Huskers to clear with ease in the coming year.
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Underachieve: Michigan State
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After compiling a 36-5 record in the past three years and winning two of the last three Big Ten titles, Michigan State probably deserves the benefit of the doubt at this point.
But it's hard to ignore just how much talent the Spartans will be losing from last year's playoff team, and Mark Dantonio hasn't recruited as impressively as Urban Meyer has at Ohio State, which should offset the Buckeyes' similar mass exodus of talent.
As a result, Michigan State finds itself looking to fill in the gaps of a roster returning just 45 percent of its overall production and 26 percent of its production on offense. Gone are quarterback Connor Cook, left tackle Jack Conklin, center Jack Allen, wide receiver Aaron Burbridge and defensive end Shilique Calhoun, each key contributor from the past three years replaced with a question mark heading into 2016.
Factor in the Spartans playing in the ultra-competitive Big Ten East, and this year may be more of a rebuild than a reload in East Lansing. Michigan State could benefit from hosting both Michigan and Ohio State at Spartan Stadium this season, but even that likely won't be enough for Dantonio's team to keep pace with its impressive clip from the past three years.
Overachieve: Minnesota
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After an impressive 8-4 regular season in 2014 that put Minnesota in the conversation as a Big Ten West contender a year ago, the Golden Gophers were one of the conference's bigger disappointments in 2015 due to their 5-7 regular-season record.
But like Nebraska, Minnesota may have been better than its record suggested. And a win over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl gave the Gophers plenty of momentum heading into 2016.
Plus, while excuses only take you so far, Minnesota had a few to hang its hat on a year ago. Most notably, the midseason departure of head coach Jerry Kill gave the Gophers plenty to deal with, aside from a difficult schedule that included games against TCU and cross-divisional opponents Michigan and Ohio State.
Now with a more manageable slate—one that includes cross-divisional games against Penn State, Maryland and Rutgers—Minnesota appears poised for a bounce-back season, as 84 percent of its offensive production returns, including three-year starting quarterback Mitch Leidner.
It also won't hurt that Tracy Claeys will be settled into his first full season as a head coach, as distractions should now be at a minimum in Minneapolis.
Underachieve: Northwestern
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After a 10-2 regular season that followed consecutive 5-7 campaigns, Northwestern was arguably the most pleasant surprise in all of the Big Ten in 2015.
But with the way the Wildcats ended their year with a 45-6 blowout loss to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl, there is plenty to question about the sustainability of Northwestern's success.
Especially when taking into consideration that while the Wildcats' record was undoubtedly impressive, it was accomplished with the worst statistical offense in the entire conference. It's hard to imagine the Wildcats keeping their pace with a similar output in the coming year, although with quarterback Clayton Thorson entering his second season as a starter, offensive improvement is certainly attainable.
But even if Thorson takes the next step as a sophomore and Justin Jackson proves to be the best running back in the Big Ten, living up to a 10-2 standard will be a tall task with cross-divisional games against Michigan State and Ohio State looming.
Northwestern may very well prove capable of remaining in contention for the Big Ten West title in the coming year, but that still likely won't be reflected in its record in 2016.
Overachieve: Illinois
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Despite its 5-7 record, Illinois could be considered one of the Big Ten's overachievers from 2015.
After all, things could have been a lot worse after head coach Tim Beckman was fired just one week prior to the start of the season. But with former NFL head coach Lovie Smith now in charge of the Fighting Illini, the program should be poised to take an even bigger step forward in the coming year.
Illinois has plenty working against it, including a tough schedule that includes cross-divisional games against Michigan and Michigan State and the loss of wide receiver Mike Dudek to a torn ACL. But Smith's resume speaks for itself and could lead to immediate results in Champaign.
Given their schedule, merely matching last season's 5-7 record could be considered exceeding expectations. And with Smith now roaming the sidelines, that's certainly attainable.
Underachieve: Penn State
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With back-to-back 7-6 seasons, the first two years of the James Franklin era at Penn State could be considered a disappointment.
And the worst might still be ahead in Happy Valley.
At least that seems to be the case for 2016, with quarterback Christian Hackenberg, Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year Carl Nassib and potential first-round defensive lineman Austin Johnson headed to the NFL. The Nittany Lions schedule is no cakewalk, either, with out-of-conference games against Pitt and Temple, a cross-division matchup against Big Ten West champion Iowa and the usual brutal slate that can be found in the Big Ten East.
For a team breaking in a new starting quarterback, that should make for rough road ahead. Penn State may not be as far off as it seems under Franklin, but for now, 2016 hardly looks like a potential breakout year.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
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