Early 2016 Win-Loss Record Projections for Every SEC Football Team
It's never too early to make predictions, and you'd better believe around water coolers and chat rooms across the Southeast that folks are talking about how their favorite SEC football teams are going to fare once September rolls around.
So, why can't we go ahead and make our way-too-early predictions?
Everybody wants to know whether Alabama can repeat as the national champion. Which Florida will show up in '16—the one that started so hot or the one that couldn't muster any points as the season progressed?
What will Georgia look like without Mark Richt on the sideline during the Kirby Smart regime? Can Barry Odom return Missouri to its SEC East-leading form of 2013 and '14 after Gary Pinkel's final season in Columbia was disastrous?
The other Columbia didn't fare too well either in Steve Spurrier's finale. Is Will Muschamp the answer?
Tennessee (again) has tons of hype surrounding it, and Ole Miss looks like a full-fledged yearly contender under coach Hugh Freeze, but the Rebels still need to get to Atlanta for the first time in order for us to take them seriously.
With a top-tier nonconference slate, the league will try to prove its dominance once again after a strong bowl showing in 2015. There is a ton of quarterback and coaching turnover, but the SEC appears primed to flex its talent superiority again.
Let's take a look at what could be in store for every program once spring practice, summer workouts and fall camp give way to real football.
Alabama Crimson Tide
1 of 14
2015 record: 14-1
2016 regular-season prediction: 11-1
It's good to be the king, and Tuscaloosa has served as the throne for many years under the reign of Nick Saban.
The Crimson Tide again were crowned champions in 2015, and while they lost plenty of talent including Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry, quarterback Jacob Coker and a slew of defensive playmakers, college football's most prolific factory has more stars ready to come off the assembly line.
As ESPN.com's KC Joyner writes: "It might seem tough for Nick Saban's club to be a repeat king of the mountain given its relatively low number of returning starters, but it turns out those personnel losses are nowhere near as impactful as they might seem at first glance."
That's what annual top-ranked recruiting classes will do for you.
The Tide will run into a lot of potential roadblocks in '16, but they'll exorcise the demons from Oxford when they beat the Rebels for the first time since 2013. While Tennessee will provide a sturdy foe in Knoxville, the Vols aren't ready to win this rivalry game just yet.
Despite all that, Bama will slip up once in the regular season, and that will likely be on the road in Death Valley against LSU, where Leonard Fournette will exact a little revenge.
Even with the setback, Saban will have Alabama battling for Atlanta again. Who would bet against Alabama repeating as the champion?
Arkansas Razorbacks
2 of 14
2015 record: 8-5
2016 regular-season prediction: 6-6
Coach Bret Bielema built things up nicely last season in Fayetteville, and though the Razorbacks were tough to handle for a lot of teams, they didn't have the kind of campaign they had hoped for.
This year, it's going to be much tougher to do damage in the league, especially coming out of a loaded SEC West.
Arkansas played last season without star running back Jonathan Williams, and he's gone to the NFL along with stud backfield mate Alex Collins, who bolted before his final season. Regardless, Bielema always has big-time running backs, and there are several potential heirs. Rawleigh Williams especially has huge upside.
The biggest loss for the Hogs will be quarterback Brandon Allen, who morphed from a solid little quarterback to a senior star a season ago. His little brother, Austin, is expected to take over, but his job won't be easy.
If the Hogs can get the ball to their talented receiving corps and play a little bit better defense in '16, they can exceed these expectations.
The West is loaded, but Bielema will do enough to get his team to a bowl game and set up another quality couple of seasons. But this year won't be what the Arkansas faithful want again.
Despite struggling in the league, the Hogs are going to upset TCU early in the season, and that will put them over the top, even though a rugged run through Alabama, Ole Miss, at Auburn, Florida and LSU could do them in late in the season.
Auburn Tigers
3 of 14
2015 record: 7-6
2016 regular-season prediction: 7-5
Auburn's story is a crazy one. On one hand, the Tigers have reached the highest of highs twice in the past five seasons, playing for two national championships and winning one.
Yet, they've been anything but consistent. In that time, they've fired former coach Gene Chizik and weathered the ups and downs of current coach Gus Malzahn's regime.
Things aren't all rosy on the Plains, especially after Will Muschamp left for South Carolina with several assistants in tow and then alumnus Dameyune Craig unexpectedly bolted for rival LSU.
Despite all that, there's plenty of talent at Auburn. Offensive skill-position talent abounds, led by highly recruited running backs Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas. While the offensive line is unproven, there is a bunch of young, talented receivers.
But can anybody get them the ball?
AU's most discussed issue is quarterback, and it remains unresolved. Sean White, Jeremy Johnson and newcomer John Franklin III make up the trio of signal-callers that will battle for the position. Whether one of those guys can simply manage the game without a slew of mistakes will go a long way.
The Tigers have questions at linebacker, but they're talented on the defensive front and in the secondary. But a tough schedule awaits, beginning with national runner-up Clemson coming to town.
There will be some bumps along the way, but the Tigers are going to improve in '16, even if the record may not show it too much.
Florida Gators
4 of 14
2015 record: 10-4
2016 regular-season prediction: 8-4
Florida's 2015 record was strong, but anybody who watched the Gators play toward the end of the season would be lying if they said they were impressed.
Coach Jim McElwain did an exceptional job of bringing the program back to respectability in a successful first season, but the offensive-minded coach couldn't have been happy with the development on that side of the ball.
That's why we'll see a huge offensive overhaul this year.
Quarterback Luke Del Rio expects to be the man at signal-caller, and if he can be what UF's coaches believe he'll be, the Gators could be primed for another strong year. But the real budding star is JUCO running back Mark Thompson, whose 6'2", 242-pound frame excites coaches.
"That's an SEC back right there," McElwain told the Orlando Sentinel's Jordan McPherson. "He looks the part."
The Gators have the chance to have another strong year on defense, but they must replace some playmakers. Despite the excitement of Del Rio and Thompson, there are unanswered questions on offense too.
That early-season Tennessee game that they've owned for the past decade will be huge. If they can get past that one, they could win the East again. But the Vols have too much talent this year.
Losses to UT, LSU, Georgia and Florida State will leave the Gators at 8-4, but McElwain is rebuilding that roster with the talent to contend every year.
Georgia Bulldogs
5 of 14
2015 record: 10-3
2016 regular-season prediction: 9-3
Like so many teams in the SEC in '16, Georgia's ultimate success hinges on its ability to develop a quarterback.
The Bulldogs have a prime candidate in true freshman Jacob Eason, though it's asking a lot for a first-year player to have a major impact right away. If anybody has the skill set, however, he does.
If that position is solid, Smart will do just fine. There is a lot of talent in red and black, and Georgia will be right in the thick of things in the SEC East. If star running back Nick Chubb returns to full strength following a knee injury, he and Sony Michel will be one of the best one-two punches in the nation.
Considering the aggressive, attacking 3-4 scheme Smart employed in Tuscaloosa as the UA defensive coordinator, that side of the ball should be just fine.
Everything is going to hinge on that Tennessee game in Athens. If UGA exacts a little revenge on the Vols, the reward may just be a first-year SEC championship game appearance.
But that's likely a year away. After a season-opening setback to a good North Carolina team, UGA will lose back-to-back close battles at Ole Miss and home against Tennessee, and that will be enough to keep it out of Atlanta.
Kentucky Wildcats
6 of 14
2015 record: 5-7
2016 regular-season prediction: 5-7
The Mark Stoops honeymoon is over.
Entering his fourth year, the Kentucky head coach has impressed everybody around the league with the level of talent he's brought to UK, but it simply hasn't translated into enough wins.
The Bluegrass blueprint the past couple of seasons has been to start hot but tail off once the schedule gets tougher and the team depth wears thin. This year won't be much different.
Yes, the Cats have one of the most underrated playmakers in the league in junior running back Boom Williams, but he needs to stay healthy. While first-year starting quarterback Drew Barker has the blue-chip pedigree and the arm talent to excel, he has to prove it on the field.
The receivers need to do a better job of helping him out, too.
But the biggest worries are on defense, where UK must replace several good players, including ousted Jason Hatcher.
After a stout start to the season, the Wildcats will lose to Mississippi State, Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee and Louisville down the stretch to fall out of a bowl yet again.
And that seat will start to get hot for Stoops.
LSU Tigers
7 of 14
2015 record: 9-3
2016 regular-season prediction: 10-2
Toward the end of last season, LSU coach Les Miles didn't know if he'd be the head man of the Bayou Bengals this year. Things were looking dire before an 11th-hour decision kept him at LSU.
Following one of the nation's best recruiting efforts and the brilliant hire of defensive coordinator Dave Aranda away from Wisconsin, the Tigers could be in for a special season. They have a special player in Leonard Fournette.
But, with apologies sounding like a skipping record, the Tigers' ceiling will only be elevated as high as their quarterback play. The bottom line is offensive coordinator Cam Cameron must get more out of Brandon Harris.
With Fournette and a defense that should return to elite form in '16, LSU is going to be a bit better this year than it was last season. Miles will be adored when he pulls off an upset of Alabama in Baton Rouge late in the season, even after the grumbles the week before after a loss to Ole Miss.
There will be excitement buzzing around the Tigers throughout the season as they become one of the league's best programs, but a late-season stunner of a loss to Texas A&M will keep them out of the SEC championship game.
Then, there will be plenty of questions about how the Tigers couldn't parlay Fournette's generational talent into an SEC title.
All that changes if Harris lives up to his massive potential, however. But everybody has to be in see-it-to-believe-it mode when it comes to LSU quarterbacks.
Mississippi Rebels
8 of 14
2015 record: 10-3
2016 regular-season prediction: 10-2
Lots of folks may believe the Rebels take a step back in 2016 with the loss of star players such as left tackle Laremy Tunsil, wide receiver Laquon Treadwell, defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche and linebacker Denzel Nkemdiche.
But coach Hugh Freeze hasn't had many recruiting lapses, and his prowess in that area will show this year.
Ole Miss has some issues in the running game and some inexperience up front, but there's enough talent for that to develop into a strength.
When that comes around to go along with star quarterback Chad Kelly throwing to one of the best wide receiving corps in the league and another year of the stout Landsharks defense, things will look great at the Grove.
A potential rising star at running back is redshirt freshman Eric Swinney, who didn't play last year after rehabbing an injury. Akeem Judd and Jordan Wilkins could have strong seasons too, but Freeze told the North Mississippi Daily Journal's Parrish Alford recently of Swinney: "I think all of our guys, they're all up over 200 pounds now, and they all have certain things, but (Swinney) seems to finish runs with a certain amount of authority for sure that we might not have seen so much of in the past. I've always felt like if he gets healthy he has a chance to be a special kid."
That's high praise for the Rebs, who appear primed for a strong year. The kinks in the offensive line should lead to a season-opening loss to Florida State in Orlando, and Bama is going to beat them this year.
Other than that, it looks like a clean slate for the Rebs. If that's the case, they may just be dancing all the way to Atlanta.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
9 of 14
2015 record: 9-4
2016 regular-season prediction: 6-6
No matter how much folks want to gloss over it, there's perhaps no more damaging loss to this team than the departure of Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott.
Yes, the Bulldogs had some star receivers, and a couple of them return. But who is going to get Fred Ross and Co. the ball?
When you toss in the concerns at running back, it's hard to envision Mississippi State duplicating its nine-win season from a year ago. Dan Mullen is a heck of a coach, but the Bulldogs are going to take a sizable step backward as they rebuild for the future.
As far as those running back questions, there are several potential answers in the form of Brandon Holloway, Ashton Shumpert, Aeris Williams and Dontavian Lee. But who is going to step up? Nobody really took charge a year ago.
Maybe somebody will elevate his game with do-it-all star Prescott gone, because the Bulldogs need to find offensive playmakers in a hurry. They also have to be more consistent on defense after a shaky 2015.
The two pivotal games for the Bulldogs will come at home against Auburn and Arkansas. If they can win those two, they can turn a so-so season into a good one. But if they lose those, scraping to get to .500 is going to be the story of the season.
The margin for error is small now that one of the best players in school history is gone. Mullen is looking for answers.
Missouri Tigers
10 of 14
2015 record: 5-7
2016 regular-season prediction: 4-8
In what is truly a tale of two football teams, the Missouri Tigers look like they'll have one of the league's best defenses again in 2016, but how is that abysmal offense going to rebound?
That's a question that first-year head coach Barry Odom must answer; he's seen as a rising star who needed just one season as his alma mater's defensive coordinator before being tabbed as Gary Pinkel's replacement.
Before that, he built Memphis' defense into a force under Justin Fuente.
With studs such as Harold Brantley, Josh Augusta, Rickey Hatley, Terry Beckner Jr. and Walter Brady anchoring the defensive front, the Tigers are going to be good on that side of the ball again. The secondary has some weapons too.
But, oh, that offense.
Regardless of what the team wants to call a "competition," Drew Lock will be the quarterback. He has a huge upside and a lot of talent but must rebound from a forgettable freshman season.
There are some nice receivers to throw to, led by Alabama transfer Chris Black, but you need a running game to be successful in the SEC. That's going to be an issue beyond Ish Witter, and as the St. Louis Post Dispatch's Dave Matter wrote, Witter doesn't have much help:
"Chase Abbington, he of six carries last year, quit the team after two weeks of spring practices. That means the Tigers are down to Witter and never-played-in-a-college-game Trevon Walters and Ryan Williams, not to mention Marquise Doherty, who’s moonlighting as a backup outfielder with the baseball Tigers this spring. Without a proven primary back on the roster, walk-on junior Shaun Conway, a speedster from McCluer South-Berkeley, looks the part compared to his competition. Odom has raved about his new staffers’ creative methods for running the ball. They'll be tested with this unheralded bunch.
"
That's brutal. So, while maybe a one-game improvement could happen, the Tigers aren't going to beat anybody of consequence this year until Odom can rebuild a little. That offensive roster is in bad shape.
South Carolina Gamecocks
11 of 14
2015 record: 3-9
2016 regular-season prediction: 5-7
Speaking of rebuilds, South Carolina's roster is a far cry from the program that won 10 games three consecutive seasons before the two-year lapse it is currently going through.
First-year coach Will Muschamp may be revitalizing recruiting a bit and restoring a little swagger in the program, but the deep-rooted defensive issues are too great to overcome in one season.
With star receiver Pharoh Cooper gone to the NFL and running back Brandon Wilds out of eligibility, there are tons of offensive worries too.
Neither Perry Orth nor Lorenzo Nunez will play in this weekend's spring game, according to the State's David Cloninger, so that quarterback competition will inevitably linger into the fall. The quicker that Muschamp settles on a man to lead his offense, the better the Gamecocks will be.
It's difficult to see Carolina making a bowl game in '16, especially following a three-win season and with so much turnover. Even a two-game improvement would be met with a universal "meh" by a fanbase that draws its excitement these days from looking toward the future.
That future is soon. Elite quarterback Jake Bentley committed to the Gamecocks last week, and in a stunning turn of events, he'll forgo his senior year of high school in Opelika, Alabama, and be eligible to compete for that quarterback job right away.
"I am announcing that I will not be playing high school football next year," Bentley tweeted. "After doing some research and confirming with my academic counselors I will be able to graduate this year. Because I can graduate early, I will be joining the excitement of Gamecock football this summer."
What kind of impact will that have? Perhaps a lot on Muschamp's program development, but most likely not enough on '16. The Gamecocks have holes everywhere that Bentley can't fill. Even so, he is a nice centerpiece for the rebuild.
Tennessee Volunteers
12 of 14
2015 record: 9-4
2016 regular-season prediction: 11-1
The hype is real.
When you look at Tennessee's roster, not only has coach Butch Jones built depth at almost every position (other than defensive tackle, where UT can't afford many injuries), but he also has the type of top-end talent in the right places to win big.
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs, running backs Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara, defensive end Derek Barnett and linebackers Jalen Reeves-Maybin and Darrin Kirkland Jr. would start for anybody. A loaded, veteran secondary and offensive line offers excitement too.
If Tennessee can win a national-spotlight game against Virginia Tech in the Battle at Bristol and get over the psychological hurdle by finally beating Florida in Neyland Stadium after a decade of futility, the season sets up well for the Vols.
For the first time in years, there isn't a single team on the Vols' schedule they'll definitely lose to.
Even so, beating Alabama is still a tall order, so it's tough to chalk that one in the win column for the Vols. Difficult games at Georgia and at Texas A&M also appear daunting, but these veterans are battle-tested and have the talent to win.
The Vols have plenty to prove to a nation of naysayers. Dobbs has to show he can pass the ball vertically with more success than he has throughout his career. The defense needs to take a step forward under new coordinator Bob Shoop. And the Vols have to beat the best to be the best.
But, man, they sure do look tantalizing on paper, throughout the depth chart and when they step out on the field. Now, they just have to perform.
Texas A&M Aggies
13 of 14
2015 record: 8-5
2016 regular-season prediction: 8-4
It's time to move beyond the grumbles for this program and to get serious about winning big.
If they don't, the Aggies could be looking at some serious changes sooner rather than later.
Just a couple of years ago, Kevin Sumlin was one of the brightest coaching stars on the planet, posting huge offensive numbers and recruiting at the highest level. But all that star power hasn't gotten him any SEC championships, and Texas A&M just went through a tumultuous 2015.
From the outside looking in, the departures of former star prospect quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray did not work any magic for Sumlin's image. Things got a little better when Oklahoma quarterback Trevor Knight elected to transfer to College Station for his senior year, but wins are the only cure for what ails the program.
Defensive coordinator John Chavis brings back a bevy of talent, led by monster rising junior defensive end Myles Garrett, who is one of the nation's most freakish players. Daylon Mack and Daeshon Hall aren't bad building blocks either.
Anybody in the nation would be thrilled to have a receiving corps that boasts Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones. But it's time for the Aggies to parlay those players into wins.
A season-opening showdown with UCLA and quarterback Josh Rosen should set the tone for the year. Win that one, and it's going to be a good year, even if the Aggies do lose back-to-back games against Tennessee and Alabama late in the season.
While 8-4 looks probable, it wouldn't be out of the ordinary to think Sumlin's bunch could begin to live up to expectations and win nine or 10 games in '16. That would be huge for his resume.
Vanderbilt Commodores
14 of 14
2015 record: 4-8
2016 regular-season prediction: 4-8
This could be a much stronger year for Vanderbilt. But even if that happens, there is no guarantee the Commodores' record will get any better.
It's tough falling behind in the SEC.
Third-year coach Derek Mason lost some pivotal players off an improving defense, but stud linebacker Zach Cunningham is back to anchor the 3-4 scheme, and there is talent around which to build.
Offensively, there are some exciting pieces too, as quarterback Kyle Shurmur returns (if Mason quits toying with an unnecessary quarterback competition) to go along with potential All-SEC running back Ralph Webb, who is finding a way to stand out in a league full of stars at the position.
The Commodores return a couple of important receiving weapons they missed in '15, led by C.J. Duncan, so Vandy has a chance to step forward.
But that schedule is still rugged.
Early-season games against South Carolina to open the year and at Georgia Tech are pivotal. Road games against Missouri and Kentucky are winnable too. Getting a couple of those will be the difference between going 4-8 and 6-6.
Mason grew a lot as a coach last year as he proved his program could take a baby step forward. This year is going to be defined by how the 'Dores perform in those games against comparable competition. If they can get hot during those, they could just find themselves battling for a bowl.
But the program has to prove it first to earn the love.
All information gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information gathered from 247Sports unless otherwise noted. All stats gathered at CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee lead writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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