Masters 2016: Separating Contenders from Pretenders Before Sunday's Final Round
If Jordan Spieth had played his final two holes the way he played his first 16, this would be a different piece. Spieth stood on the 17th tee with a four-stroke lead over Smylie Kaufman. Assuming (as most surely did) Spieth was able to collect a pair of pars, he'd have entered the final round with a four-stroke lead, the same as he did last year.
And as you know, he did pretty well with that four-stroke lead last year, winning the Masters in record fashion.
Instead, Spieth carded a surprising bogey at 17 followed by an even more surprising double bogey at the 18th. He'll enter the final round a stroke ahead of Kaufman and two ahead of Hideki Matsuyama and Bernhard Langer.
Conditions are forecast to be cool, with temperatures hovering around 60 degrees when the leaders tee off for their final round. Southerly winds are expected to be milder than during the first three rounds, ranging between 5 and 10 mph.
If Chairman Billy Payne and the tournament committee take a generous slant on Augusta’s traditional Sunday hole positions on the pristine bentgrass greens, we could see upwardly progress on the leaderboard.
Players who will contend for the green jacket are generally positioned within a few strokes of the lead, have major pedigrees and course-management expertise, are long off the tee and hit the ball high, as birdieing Augusta's par fives will be critical in a final round where strokes will be lost elsewhere.
Let's take a look at the contenders and pretenders to don the the famed green jacket.
Hideki Matsuyama
1 of 8
Two late three-whacks cost Matsuyama a pair of strokes over the closing holes, or else we might have a different narrative entering the final round. Matsuyama will start the last day at one under par, two strokes behind Spieth following a three-putt par at the 15th, a three-putt bogey at the 16th and another square on the scorecard at the 17th.
Steely and composed, Matsuyama, who dispensed Rickie Fowler in playoff fashion at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, has the demeanor and discipline to take down Spieth. The 24-year-old Japanese national has shown an aptitude for Augusta since tying for 27th as the low amateur in 2011.
Last year, he closed with a six-under 66 to finish fifth.
Don't expect the smooth-tempoed Matsuyama to wither. If he can approach the same form he displayed in the final round last year, he could be wearing the green jacket.
Verdict: Contender
Danny Willett
2 of 8
Danny Willett is the No. 12 golfer in the Official World Golf Ranking. However, as he spends most of his time competing on the European Tour, he was under the radar entering this year's Masters Tournament.
The Sheffield, England, native made some noise with a pair of tied-for-third finishes at the World Golf Championships-HSBC Champions and WGC-Cadillac Championship, but he failed to get the attention he deserved ahead of the season's first major.
Bogeys at the par-five 13th and 15th holes (where players expect to pick up shots) are the difference between Willett's current position three strokes behind Spieth and playing in the final group.
With only one top-10 finish in a major in his career, Willett is unlikely to be up to the task of firing the 67 or 68 he'd need in the final round to add the green jacket to his wardrobe.
Verdict: Pretender
Dustin Johnson
3 of 8
Bridesmaid to Spieth in agonizing fashion at the U.S. Open at Chambers Bay last year, Dustin Johnson has affixed himself to the first page of the leaderboard with a third-round 72. The bowed-wrist bomber is at even par, three strokes behind Spieth, and will pair with Jason Day for his final round.
And while he's long off the tee (incredibly so), hits the ball high and can handle par fives, it still doesn't seem like Johnson has the mettle to win a major championship. The ghosts of two near misses (last year's U.S. Open, 2010 PGA Championship) will appear.
He's only broken 70 four times in 25 rounds at Augusta National. Three strokes off the lead, he'll need to do just that to have a hope of donning the green jacket—an improbable occurrence.
Verdict: Pretender
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Jason Day
4 of 8
Winning breeds winning, as they say, and Day has done a fair amount of trophy-raising recently, tasting victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and WGC-Dell Match Play.
His winning final-round 67 at the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits last year shows us the Queensland, Australia, native has what it takes to go low in the final round of a major championship in the glow of golf’s harshest of spotlights.
Amid the more temperate conditions expected in the final round of this year's Masters, Day, who is averaging more than 304 yards off the tee this season and is 10th in birdies, ought to be able to power the ball around Augusta National and fill up the cup as well as anyone.
The "what if" game is a silly one to play. However, were it not for a miserable triple-bogey six at the par-three 16th Thursday, Day would be sitting atop the leaderboard after 54 holes.
He'll start the day three strokes behind Spieth. If Day plays Augusta's par fives well, which he is six under on this week, he certainly has a chance.
Verdict: Contender
Bernhard Langer
5 of 8
The 58-year-old Champions Tour force of nature, Bernhard Langer continued his incredible run at Augusta National with a third-round 70 that has him at one under par entering the final round.
In assessing the German's final-round prospects, though, it's not so much a matter of his age and the inevitable decline of touch around the greens that make a strong finish unlikely. Rather it's that Langer simply isn't long enough off the tee to put together four rounds good enough to win the Masters.
Against the field average of 280 yards, Langer averaged just 267 yards off the tee in Round 3. He managed to birdie all four par fives—an impressive and improbable feat given his poverty of distance off the tee.
Don't expect him to do the same Sunday. And without the scorecard-padding par-five birdies, the 1985 Masters winner isn't about to topple his younger foes.
Verdict: Pretender
Smylie Kaufman
6 of 8
He's a rookie, yes, but in his short professional career, Smylie Kaufman already has a history of going low to win on Sunday. Kaufman took the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open in October with a brilliant final-round 61 at TPC Summerlin in just his fifth start on the PGA Tour.
While those around him wilted like Augusta National's famed azaleas, Kaufman carded the low round of the day (69) and was one of only five players to shoot under par. Kaufman birdied three of his final six holes to position himself at two under entering the final round, just a stroke behind Spieth.
Kaufman is long, pounding the ball an average of 308 yards off the tee with his Cleveland Classic 290 driver in the third round. And he hits the ball high (third on tour in apex height). If conditions are mild and pins are accessible, Kaufman has the tools to fire at them.
Verdict: Contender
Rory McIlroy
7 of 8
Rory McIlroy didn't card a birdie in the course of his second-fiddle (to Spieth) third-round 77.
Looking dejected, McIlroy made a difficult Augusta National track even more difficult with wayward drives and mental mistakes Saturday. In particular, McIlroy, attempting to play short of the green from trouble at the 11th hole, inexplicably found the hazard left of the green en route to a double-bogey six.
It’s strange to suggest that a man who has won three major championships may lack the mettle to win major championships, but McIlroy seems to be lacking the Tiger Woods/Spieth “grind it out” gene—that unique ability to turn 72 into 69, to pick up the easiest strokes on the course (at par fives), to minimize mental mistakes, to hole clutch putts, etc.
McIlroy has historically struggled at Augusta National on Saturday and didn't do enough to put himself in position to win the career Grand Slam Sunday. At two over par after three rounds, McIlroy will hit the opening tee shot of his final round at Augusta's challenging first hole five strokes behind Spieth.
It's not a deficit he'll be able to overcome and certainly not with the balky putter he showcased Saturday.
Verdict: Pretender
Jordan Spieth
8 of 8
USA Today's Steve DiMeglio summed up the complexity and impressiveness of Spieth's position after 54 holes:
"There was a drive into the trees on 3, a tee shot off a grandstand on 4. He also drove into the trees on 7, 17 and 18. And there was the three-putt double bogey on 11 and a bogey, double-bogey finish. Yet there was Spieth in the lead again at day’s end, a record seventh consecutive round at the Masters where he’s been atop the leaderboard. In other words, he’s led the Masters for two years.
"
So, forget about his bogey/double-bogey finish to the third round; Spieth will.
In a post-round interview, CBS Sports' Bill Macatee asked him how he'd put the disappointing finish in perspective. Spieth said he'd “understand this is the position I wanted to be in after 54 holes and not think about the finish to today’s round."
Exactly.
And remember this, as the PGA Tour media guide stated that dating to 1991, with the exception of Zach Johnson (tied for fourth) in 2007, Bubba Watson (tied for third) in 2012 and Adam Scott (third) in 2013, the Masters champion has been ranked no lower than tied for second following 54 holes.
We don't need to dredge up Spieth's pedigree or the fact that he won this tournament last year.
The truth is, Saturday at Augusta National, Spieth did what Spieths do: poured in critical putts at the second, fourth and sixth holes to maintain his position early, birdied three of the four par fives and generally managed his way around the course on a difficult day when his ball-striking wasn't at its best.
He'll enter the final round with three strokes between him and anyone who has won a major this millennium (Day). Assuming he brings his brain, his caddie Michael Greller, his yardage book and his putter to the course, it's difficult to imagine the 22-year-old Texan is worried.
Verdict: Contender
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