Predicting Which Top Incoming Freshmen Will Go 1-and-Done After 2016-17 Season

Unlike ghost peppers and the Harlem Shake, the one-and-done isn't a fad that will quickly go away. As long as the NBA requires draft entrants to be 19 and a year removed from their high school graduating class, college basketball is going to have an annual rash of players stick around for just one season.

According to Sporting News' Josh Hyber, we've already seen nine college freshmen declare for the NBA draft while also hiring an agent, thus eliminating their ability to return to school, while another handful of freshmen have announced their intentions to "test the waters" and would have to decide by May 25 whether to remain in the draft or withdraw their names. Others are likely to do one or the other before the April 24 deadline to declare.

Last year saw 14 one-and-done players enter the draft, with all but Kansas' Cliff Alexander hearing his name called in June. All 14 were rated by 247Sports as 5-star prospects in the 2014 recruiting class, and the majority of the freshmen who have declared this spring were at or near the top of the 2015 recruiting class.

Who might be destined to take the one-and-done path from the 2016 recruiting class? We know one who doesn't plan to wait that long, as 7-footer Thon Maker told told Bleacher Report he plans to petition to go straight to the draft after spending a fifth year at the prep level and on Thursday ESPN's Chad Ford tweeted that Maker had been cleared to enter the draft. Of the 27 other 5-star prospects in the 2016 class, we've picked out 12 more who are most likely to skip college after one season.

Edrice Adebayo

Position: Power forward

Height, weight: 6'9", 232 pounds

Status: Signed with Kentucky

With a nickname like "Bam," Edrice Adebayo figures to make his presence felt as Kentucky's next physical big man. And like the frontcourt players John Calipari has signed the previous two seasons, he doesn't figure to be around long.

Adebayo had 16 points and 12 rebounds in 22 minutes in the McDonald's All-American Game—a sign he plans to be much more active on the glass than outgoing Kentucky freshman power forward Skal Labissiere was. Less interested in putting up jumpers and more inclined to slam it home—hence the nickname—Adebayo plays with energy and power and has the hops to make most of his shots a no-doubter.

Kentucky fans will love him, but like with most of their top players, they'll need to enjoy him while he's with the team.

Jarrett Allen

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Position: Power forward

Height, weight: 6'9", 210 pounds

Status: Uncommitted

Though he's not close to making a decision on where he'll attend college, Jarrett Allen probably has a better idea of where he'll be a year from now: preparing for the NBA draft.

The six schools still in the running for the Texas big man—Houston, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Notre Dame and Texas, he told Evan Daniels of Scout.com—shouldn't plan to have Allen around for more than one season. Not when he's already getting compared to current pros, as DraftExpress did by noting his "physical tools already compare favorably" to Larry Sanders of the Milwaukee Bucks.

Allen had nine points, six rebounds and five blocks in the McDonald's All-American Game and then followed that up with nine points and nine rebounds at the Nike Hoop Summit.

Lonzo Ball

Position: Point guard

Height, weight: 6'6", 170 pounds

Status: Signed with UCLA

A unique talent based on his combination of length, court vision and ball-handling, Lonzo Ball is a guy many can't wait to see in the NBA. They probably won't have to wait long.

The oldest of three brothers who helped lead Chino Hills High School in California to a 35-0 record this past season, Ball somehow manages to be both a pass-first point guard and one who can score at will. He dished out 13 assists in 21 minutes in the McDonald's All-American Game, turning it over just once, while for his high school team he averaged a triple-double, per MaxPreps.

With Ball manning the point next season at UCLA, Bryce Alford will be able to focus on his three-point shooting, while the Bruins' wings and frontcourt players will also benefit from Ball's distribution skills. So, too, will whatever NBA team drafts him in 2017.

Marques Bolden

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Position: Center

Height, weight: 6'11", 250 pounds

Status: Uncommitted

Derryck Thornton's decision to transfer from Duke has opened up a scholarship that many think could end up going to Marques Bolden, one of the last few big names left on the board in the 2016 class. Of the 22 entries made to 247Sports' Crystal Ball predictor, 77 percent have Bolden eventually committing to the Blue Devils.

A similar talent to 2014-15 Duke standout Jahlil Okafor, Bolden figures to only be in Durham for one season (much like several other recent Blue Devils and maybe some others from the 2016 class), but that should be a productive one. He had 13 points on 6-of-8 shooting with seven rebounds in the McDonald's All-American Game.

Bolden will need to make the most of his weight room access during that one college year, working to chisel his sizable frame. But even as an unfinished product, he'll be highly coveted, as DraftExpress noted, "few players in our database share Bolden's combination of length and strength."

Terrance Ferguson

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Position: Shooting guard

Height, weight: 6'7", 180 pounds

Status: Committed to Arizona

Terrance Ferguson committed to Alabama last summer but never signed, ultimately backing off that pledge in March. On Wednesday he committed to Arizona over Baylor, Kansas, Maryland, North Carolina and North Carolina State, making him the fourth 5-star player the Wildcats have coming in for 2016-17.

But just how long Ferguson spends with Arizona might depend on how much his stock went up from a monster performance at the Nike Hoop Summit.

The Dallas native hit a record seven three-pointers for Team USA against the World Team on Saturday in Portland, Oregon, making up for a 1-of-5 performance from outside in the McDonald's All-American Game.

DraftExpress doesn't have Ferguson included on its 2017 mock draft, though NBADraft.net had him pegged as the No. 15 pick that year even before his Nike Hoop Summit showing and now lists him going 20th overall.

De'Aaron Fox

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Position: Point guard

Height, weight: 6'3", 171 pounds

Status: Signed with Kentucky

For a program that has become known for its prevalence of one-and-done players, this hasn't been the case lately with point guards. If Isaiah Briscoe opts to return to Kentucky for his sophomore year after testing the waters, he'll be the third Wildcats point guard in as many years to buck the one-and-done trend.

Don't expect De'Aaron Fox to follow suit, even with many scouting reports noting just as many flaws and deficiencies as strengths and positives.

"Fox's size, athleticism, passing and defense gives him a great platform to build off as a NBA prospect, even if scouts will want to see him progress with his skill level to project him as a top-flight point guard long term," wrote Jonathan Givony of DraftExpress, who has Fox going 14th overall (but fourth among point guards) in the 2017 draft.

Markelle Fultz

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Position: Combo guard

Height, weight: 6'4", 170 pounds

Status: Signed with Washington

After bringing in a large and talented recruiting class for 2015-16, all Washington needed for this coming season to complement that group was someone to replace senior Andrew Andrews. The Huskies found that person in Markelle Fultz, whom they signed in November, but with the departure of freshmen Marquese Chriss and Dejounte Murray they're going to need a lot more out of Fultz.

Good thing he has the game and handle to be an all-everything guy—one of few in the 2016 class listed as a combo guard for his ability to play both perimeter spots.

However, by asking Fultz to take on an even larger role than expected when Washington still expected to have either Chriss or Murray (or both) around, it's all but assuring he's going to join that pair as one-year players. Fultz had 10 points, six rebounds and four assists in the McDonald's All-American Game and then had 11 points and three rebounds in the Nike Hoop Summit.

Harry Giles

Position: Power forward

Height, weight: 6'11", 222 pounds

Status: Signed with Duke

A knee injury prevented Harry Giles from holding onto his spot as the No. 1 player in the 2016 class, though second isn't too shabby for a guy who hasn't played competitively since tearing the ACL in his right knee on Nov. 3 in his first game with Oak Hill Academy in Virginia. He'd previously tore his left ACL and MCL in 2013 but managed to come back even better, and he's promising to do the same for what figures to be a single season at Duke.

"The reality is that I'll be back, and I'll be as strong as or stronger than I was before," Giles told USA Today's Jason Jordan at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he suited up but didn't compete.

ESPN.com's Chad Ford has him as the second-best NBA prospect entering college in 2016-17, noting "if he recovers fully from his injury and has a huge season at Duke, he'll be strongly in the mix for the No. 1 pick."

Jonathan Isaac

Position: Small forward

Height, weight: 6'10", 185 pounds

Status: Florida State

Though he ultimately decided not to give it a whirl, it was only two months ago that Jonathan Isaac told Sports Illustrated he was going to see if he could enter the NBA draft despite still being in high school. He's a fifth-year prep player at IMG Academy in Florida, which means his original graduating class would have been 2015, and he turned 19 this year, so he might have been eligible.

Nevermind whether that would have been a good idea for someone so skinny, the fact he was even considering it pretty much tells you what his intentions are after he plays one season at Florida State.

Maybe the Seminoles will luck out, as they did when Dwayne Bacon—one-half of their thrilling freshman backcourt duo along with Malik Beasley—opted to return to school for 2016-17. But don't bet on it.

Josh Jackson

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Position: Shooting guard

Height, weight: 6'7", 202 pounds

Status: Committed to Kansas

With his Twitter announcement Monday that he'll be joining the 12-time Big 12 regular-season champions next season, Josh Jackson probably also ensures Kansas will have a one-and-done player on its roster for a fourth consecutive season. That's assuming Cheick Diallo, who has declared but hasn't signed an agent, doesn't return.

Jackson, the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2016 class, per 247Sports, is pretty much a lock to have a bigger impact on the Jayhawks than Diallo or Cliff Alexander—big men who didn't play much for Bill Self before turning pro. He could challenge Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid, one-and-done players from the 2013-14 Jayhawks, for the best freshman in Self's tenure.

"Jackson is a versatile wing that is tough, competes and has an excellent motor and feel for the game," ESPN wrote on his scouting profile. "His explosiveness is elite, and he is the ultimate finisher."

The last No. 1 overall player in 247Sports' rankings not to turn pro after one season was North Carolina's Harrison Barnes—the top prospect from 2010 who entered the 2012 draft after his sophomore year.

Malik Monk

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Position: Combo guard

Height, weight: 6'3", 187 pounds

Status: Signed with Kentucky

While Kentucky has managed to get its blue-chip point guards to stick around for more than one year the last few seasons, the same can't be said for the shooting guards. Jamal Murray, Devin Booker and Archie Goodwin were one-and-dones, and Aaron Harrison probably should have been instead of coming back with twin brother Andrew Harrison for a second go-around.

There's no family ties that will keep Malik Monk in Lexington beyond 2016-17, and with him projected to slide into Murray's role as the go-to scorer, he won't lack the game film to show NBA scouts he's ready.

He was 5-of-12 from the field but missed all four of his three-pointers in the McDonald's All-American Game, adding four assists but three turnovers. Monk is going to want to get involved and make the most of his time having John Calipari coach him, knowing that time will be very limited.

Jayson Tatum

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Position: Small forward

Height, weight: 6'8", 208 pounds

Status: Signed with Duke

One of the first 5-star guys to commit from the 2016 class, Jayson Tatum picked Duke back in August, knowing full well Brandon Ingram—who was still a few months from suiting up for the Blue Devils—wasn't going to be around when he showed up a year later. So, too, will 2017 wing prospects getting looked at by Duke know they won't have to compete with Tatum for playing time.

Tatum sits atop DraftExpress' 2017 mock draft—a position he solidified with strong showings at both the McDonald's All-American Game (18 points, five rebounds, three assists) and Nike Hoop Summit (14 points, four rebounds, two assists).

He took 15 shots and made just five in the All-American game, also getting to the line eight times and making every foul shot. With Duke being far deeper this coming season than in 2015-16, he might not be able to get that many touches, but that isn't likely to alter his future plans.

All statistics courtesy of Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information from 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.