Big Ten Football: Predicting the Biggest Upsets in the Conference in 2016
With spring games in full gear, the college football season is officially fewer than five months away and, of course, it's never too early to start looking ahead to the upcoming campaign.
And after a 2015 season unlike any other in Big Ten history, it's only gotten tougher to predict what will happen in the conference in the coming year.
That means that upsets could run rampant—perhaps even on a weekly basis—as teams deal with overhauled rosters, programs enter new eras and perennial powerhouses find themselves fighting to stay at the front of the league's food chain. Add in the shocking results for some teams—both good and bad—that played out a year ago, and handicapping the conference for the coming year becomes even more difficult than it already was.
Of course, a lot can change between now and the start of the 2016 season. But while we're waiting, let's go ahead and try to forecast the Big Ten upsets that will be occurring in a season that could ultimately prove to be even crazier than its unpredictable predecessor was.
Nebraska over Oregon
1 of 9
OK, so technically this is an out-of-conference matchup and not a pure Big Ten game.
But what better way to start this off than with what would arguably be the biggest upset win by a Big Ten team in the entire 2016 season?
After enduring a 5-7 regular season in its debut campaign under Mike Riley, Nebraska is looking to bounce back in 2016 and show the direction of its program is actually more promising than its 2015 record suggested. What better way to do that than pulling off an upset victory over Oregon, which will travel to Lincoln during the third week of the 2016 season on Sept. 17?
With the Ducks breaking in a new starting quarterback following the departure of Vernon Adams Jr., a Cornhuskers victory over what will most likely be a Top 25 team to start the season could very well be there for the taking. And that could ultimately prove to be a sign of things to come in the Big Ten in 2016—especially as far as Nebraska's concerned.
Wisconsin over Michigan State
2 of 9
For at least one year, Minnesota shouldn't be considered Wisconsin's biggest rival.
Rather, it's the schedule-makers who should feel the wrath of Badgers fans in 2016.
Even tossing aside a matchup against LSU at Lambeau Field to start the season, Wisconsin's path to recapturing the Big Ten West crown includes what should be considered the toughest slate in the entire conference. Starting with their Sept. 24 conference opener against Michigan State, the Badgers will face arguably the four most talented teams in the entire league in four consecutive games, with matchups against Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa following their showdown with the Spartans.
But for a team that's impressive in its own right, it's hard to imagine Wisconsin going 0-4 through that entire stretch. That's why I expect the Badgers to start out strong—perhaps with a breakout game from running back Corey Clement—and pull off the upset in East Lansing over a Michigan State team returning just 26 percent of its offensive production from a year ago, per SB Nation's Bill Connelly.
Nebraska over Northwestern
3 of 9
If this game were played in November or even October, it might not be considered an upset.
But the Sept. 24 matchup between Nebraska and Northwestern in Evanston should be early enough in the season for oddsmakers to still factor in the Cornhuskers' disappointing 5-7 regular-season record and the Wildcats' surprising 10-2 run from a year ago.
And while there's plenty to still like about Northwestern and similarly question about Nebraska, it wouldn't be a shock to see both teams move in different directions in 2016. The Wildcats' blowout loss to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl showed that perhaps they put together their breakthrough season with more smoke and mirrors than originally thought, while the Huskers' upset over UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl may have been a sign of encouraging improvement being made in Lincoln.
Factor in Nebraska's returning of quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., its top three wide receivers and 94 percent of its offensive production, and one could make the case for Nebraska being one of the teams to beat in the Big Ten West. In that sense, this could ultimately be the Cornhuskers' coming-out party should they knock off one of the division's better teams from a year ago, on its own home turf no less.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Minnesota over Penn State
4 of 9
Arguably the toughest venue in the entire Big Ten for an opposing team to play, Beaver Stadium hasn't received a visit from Minnesota since 2009, despite the Golden Gophers and Penn State possessing a rivalry for the Governor's Victory Bell.
But even with the Nittany Lions having the home-field advantage, look for Minnesota to lay claim to the the trophy for the second consecutive matchup, given the respective directions both programs appear to be heading.
Despite possessing a 5-7 regular-season record before picking up a win over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl, the Golden Gophers will have continuity on their side in 2016, with 84 percent of their offensive production from 2015 returning in Minneapolis.
Meanwhile, after sputtering to a 7-6 overall record, Penn State will possess just 53 percent of its offensive production from last season and will still be in the process of breaking in quarterback Christian Hackenberg's successor by the time its Oct. 1 Big Ten opener with Minnesota comes around.
With a three-year starting quarterback in Mitch Leidner at the helm, the Gophers shouldn't be shook by the Nittany Lions' intimidating home-field advantage. If Minnesota can successfully bottle up Penn State star running back Saquon Barkley, it shouldn't have to wait long for its first signature win of the 2016 campaign and its next claiming of the Governor's Victory Bell.
Maryland over Penn State
5 of 9
Back-to-back losses in Happy Valley for Penn State?
It might just be that sort of season for the Nittany Lions.
Although this would certainly qualify as one of Penn State's more surprising upset defeats, Maryland could have plenty of momentum on its side by the time Oct. 8 comes around, given the Terrapins' seemingly easy slate to start the D.J. Durkin era in College Park.
After starting the year with games against Howard, FIU and UCF, Maryland will face Purdue, the only team in the Big Ten to possess a worse record in 2015, before heading to State College to take on the inexperienced Nittany Lions, who Durkin held to 16 points as Michigan's defensive coordinator a year ago.
And while it's worth noting last year's game was played in Baltimore, the Terrapins took Penn State down to the wire the last time these two teams played, with the Nittany Lions escaping with a 31-30 victory over what was ultimately a 3-9 Maryland team.
Perhaps Penn State won't be so lucky this time in a game that would certainly turn up the temperature on head coach James Franklin's hot seat should that be the case.
Minnesota over Iowa
6 of 9
Despite possessing a perfect 12-0 regular-season record before falling in the Big Ten title game and Rose Bowl to close the year, Iowa wasn't without a few close calls in 2015.
One of those came at the hands of Minnesota, which pushed the Hawkeyes to the limit late in the season in what was ultimately a 40-35 victory in Iowa City for Kirk Ferentz's squad.
This year, however, Iowa won't have home-field advantage on its side, as the Hawkeyes will head to Minneapolis on Oct. 8 for the pivotal Big Ten West showdown. There, the Golden Gophers could once again prove to be one of the more formidable foes on Iowa's schedule, despite the Hawkeyes returning 72 percent of its total production on both offense and defense from a year ago in 2016.
But with Leidner leading the offense and head coach Tracy Claeys now more securely in his role after serving on an interim basis a year ago, another close call could certainly be in order the next time Iowa and Minnesota take the field. And once again, it may be every little advantage that matters, and the home surroundings will ultimately give the Golden Gophers a monumental win early in the race for the Big Ten West.
Illinois over Michigan State
7 of 9
Looking at Illinois' first schedule in the Lovie Smith era, it's going to be tough for the former NFL head coach to make an instant impact upon his arrival in Champaign.
Still, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Smith pick up an upset win here or there this season—and a Nov. 5 hosting of Michigan State could prove to be his best opportunity to make such a statement.
After all, while the Spartans are one of the more established programs in the Big Ten at this point, this year—if any—should be a rebuilding season for Mark Dantonio's squad. Gone are quarterback Connor Cook, left tackle Jack Conklin, center Jack Allen, wide receiver Aaron Burbridge and star defensive end Shilique Calhoun, replaced by no shortage of question marks following MSU's run to last season's College Football Playoff.
The Spartans won't fall from Big Ten champion to conference cellar-dwellers in just one season, just like it will take more than a year for Smith to make his full impact in Champaign. But for one day in November, the two programs' paths will intersect, which could result in a monumental win for the Fighting Illini and a devastating defeat for the defending conference champions.
Nebraska over Iowa
8 of 9
By the time the last week of the season rolls around, Nebraska may not even be the underdog it will enter the 2016 campaign as.
But regardless of what happens between Week 1 and Week 13 for the Huskers, all signs appear to be pointing toward their regular-season finale against Iowa having some sort of implications as far as the Big Ten West title hunt is concerned.
Maybe it will be Nebraska, maybe it will be the Hawkeyes or maybe it will be both with a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game on the line in the last weekend of November. However, with the game being played at Kinnick Stadium, Iowa should have the inside track to being the favorite in this year's rivalry game.
But with the momentum the Cornhuskers could manufacture throughout the year, Mike Riley's team can't be counted out of pulling off the upset and completing their season-long turnaround with a win over the defending Big Ten West champs to become the new ones. What else will be on the line for the winner of the game remains to be seen, but merely knocking off its rivals—and the division's defending champs—would be an obvious step in the right direction for Nebraska in 2016.
Michigan over Ohio State
9 of 9
A year ago, the first Urban Meyer-Jim Harbaugh matchup possessed one of the more interesting betting lines of the college football season.
Initially, it was Ohio State that opened as the favorite for the battle in Ann Arbor, before Michigan found itself favored by kickoff. But ultimately, it was the Buckeyes who had the last laugh with their 42-13 trouncing of the Wolverines in Michigan Stadium to close the 2015 regular season.
And while both programs enter 2016 with no shortage of question marks, especially with Ohio State returning just 29 percent of its production from a year ago, the Buckeyes should be favored in the upcoming edition of "The Game," which will be played in Ohio Stadium.
However, that won't mean much when the game kicks off, just as both teams learned a year ago. After losing 13 of its last 15 to its archrivals, Michigan is due for a win in college football's most storied rivalry in what could be a breakthrough year for Harbaugh in Ann Arbor.
Of course, a lot can change between now and when these two teams actually meet at the end of November. But at the moment, a Wolverines win would appear to be an upset—one that is likely to occur this season.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
