Predicting the Biggest Breakout Candidates of the 2016 NBA Playoffs
The NBA postseason is the ultimate proving ground. Shine bright when both the stakes and competition are at their highest, and your fortune can be forever changed.
The six breakout candidates listed here have the opportunity to do just that. Each has displayed varying levels of growth already, and all are positioned to showcase—or even build on—those improvements in front of a global audience.
Some will soon be receiving their first taste of the second season. Others have only enjoyed small samples of it in the past. It's not a stretch to call their upcoming treks the biggest challenges of their careers to date.
Pass this test, and these players could transform in front of our eyes from promising prospects to proven commodities.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Detroit Pistons
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If Kentavious Caldwell-Pope isn't already on the national radar, he'll be moving there in short order. The 6'5" swingman is a three-point stroke away from scary, as he's already relentless on the defensive end and fearless when attacking the basket.
His perimeter shot was actually one of his biggest strengths coming out of Georgia. It hasn't held him back at the NBA level (career 32.6 percent), but it also hasn't been what the Detroit Pistons coveted.
Even if the triples fail to fall, Caldwell-Pope could still have an eye-opening postseason run. He's lifted his offensive game to new heights—personal bests in points (14.6 per game), assists (1.9) and field-goal percentage (41.7)—but his best work has occurred at the other end. He handles Detroit's toughest perimeter assignment and has quieted many of the NBA's top scorers, as MLive.com's David Mayo explained in January:
"His defensive work has limited some of the NBA's best guards. Stephen Curry of Golden State scored 22 points against the Pistons, and averages 29.7. Russell Westbrook of Oklahoma City scored 14, and averages 25.3. Bradley Beal of Washington scored seven, and averages 19.8. Dwyane Wade of Miami has averaged 10.5 points in two games against Detroit, compared to 18.5 for the season.
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The Pistons still need to secure their first playoff bid since 2009, and even if they do, their stay may not last beyond one round. But it shouldn't take long for fans to notice the massive impact Caldwell-Pope can make.
Jae Crowder, Boston Celtics
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Jae Crowder needs two things for a playoff breakout: health and a global platform. The do-it-all forward has battled a high ankle sprain in recent weeks. He's also spent this season further removed from the spotlight than his performance says he should be.
Save for coaching wunderkind Brad Stevens and All-Star point guard Isaiah Thomas, the Boston Celtics have led an almost anonymous existence. They form an equal-opportunity support system around Thomas, and their role players fit together so tightly that they're often viewed as a collective as opposed to individuals.
But the hoops world needs to catch up on Crowder's rapid two-way growth. He's shattered his previous career highs nearly across the board and established himself near the top of the league's small forward ranks. At the position, only four players have posted a higher real plus-minus than Crowder's 3.61: Kawhi Leonard, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Paul George, per ESPN.com.
"He has the ability to guard some of those bigger, longer guys because of his strength, and he's been scoring it well," Stevens said of Crowder, per Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe. "So I think he's been one of our more reliable, consistent players all year."
Thomas might be Boston's head of the snake and Stevens its brilliant mind, but Crowder is the backbone. The deeper the Celtics push into the postseason, the more obvious—and invaluable—Crowder's versatile skill set will become.
Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz
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Rodney Hood is less than two years removed from the NBA draft and already standing as the 2014-15 freshman crop's biggest steal. Maybe that sounds a bit bold or even premature, but declarations like that can be made when the 23rd selection paces the class in win shares by a wide margin (8.1—no one else has more than 6.2).
His 6'8" frame offers a cheat-code kind of boost to offense. When combined with his decision-making, selflessness and smooth lefty stroke, he can pick apart defenses by shooting or distributing over them. He's one of only 14 players averaging at least 14 points, two assists and two triples a night, and all of those numbers offer significant growth potential.
"The thing that everybody needs to realize, he's just 23," Utah Jazz general manager Dennis Lindsey said, per Kareem Copeland of the Associated Press. "… So we're really pleased with the progression, but maybe on other terms, even more excited that there's still some room to improve."
The bright postseason lights could coax another level out of Hood. He isn't always as aggressive as he could be, but he could carry a heavy burden if Utah's playoff opponent sells out on stopping Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors. When Hood gives himself a green light, he can send the scoreboard into a frenzy—like exploding for a 30-point half.
He has offensive-focal-point potential, and this would be the perfect stage for him to showcase it.
Josh Richardson, Miami Heat
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The month of February hit the Miami Heat hard, stripping both Tyler Johnson (shoulder surgery) and Chris Bosh (blood clots) from their rotation. But just when this club looked dead in the water, the most unlikely life preserver emerged.
The Heat have long been fans of Josh Richardson, giving him a "first-round grade" before grabbing him with the 40th overall pick last summer, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. Defense is what sold Miami, as he arrived with the makeup—physical and mental—of a stopper.
But even the Heat could not have foreseen his meteoric offensive growth spurt. He was, at best, an average outside shooter in college (career 31.8 percent). Since the All-Star break, he's been the league's most accurate sniper, hitting 1.7 threes a night at a sizzling 58.8 percent clip.
"I feel like the goal is really big right now," he said recently. "I feel like if I shoot…it's most likely gonna go in."
The Heat have relied heavily on Richardson's two-way game, especially needing his perimeter stroke to balance the floor. In other words, he'll continue to be prominently featured during the second season. If his long bombs keep connecting, his production and perception will maintain their steep uphill climb.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
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Myles Turner might not be the best player in this rookie class, but he's clearly one of the most intriguing. While consistency isn't yet one of his strengths—he just turned 20 in March—his flashes of brilliance feature the unicorn-like combination of outside shooting and rim protection.
His range hasn't quite reached the three-point arc, but his soft mid-range touch still provides the Indiana Pacers valuable floor spacing. He also gives head coach Frank Vogel an almost chameleon-like level of adaptability, having enough speed for transition attacks and enough size to bully players in the half court.
"Any player of Turner’s size capable of knocking down jumpers and walling off the rim works as a skeleton key," wrote Sports Illustrated's Rob Mahoney. "No playing style can take Turner out of a game."
Growing pains, however, can force him off the floor. After making 13 consecutive starts, he was recently moved to the second team in favor of the more seasoned Lavoy Allen. But Turner's massive ceiling and higher-than-average floor will both keep him entrenched in the rotation.
He already has a handful of 20-point outbursts under his belt, and in February, he was named Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month after posting per-game averages of 13.4 points (on 51.0 percent shooting), 6.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks.
Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors
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It's hard to think of Jonas Valanciunas as a forgotten man. He's a highly skilled 7-footer in a league that doesn't have a lot of them left. His past also includes being selected fifth overall and later inking a $64 million contract extension.
At the same time, he's not the first player who comes to mind when you mention the Toronto Raptors. From their All-Star backcourt to Coach of the Year candidate Dwane Casey, there are a lot of names to shuffle through before reaching Valanciunas.
The hierarchy exists for a reason—Valanciunas isn't on the same plane as his highest-profile teammates. But he is, perhaps, the biggest X-factor on the East's No. 2 seed. When he gets rolling, the Raptors almost always do the same.
"The Raptors revolve around Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, but when Valanciunas is on, the team is extremely dangerous and hard to beat," Ryan Wolstat of the Toronto Sun wrote. "Even more so if he's also bringing it defensively."
That last sentence is critical. Valanciunas can have brutal stretches defensively, and that can lead to a short hook with backup Bismack Biyombo providing far superior protection. But when Valanciunas holds his own on that end, he can dominate the other (17.5 points per 36 minutes this season). If the Raptors keep him involved, he could become the smooth-scoring, rugged-rebounding star of this postseason.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current through games entering April 3.
