College Football Teams Whose Next QB Will Be Better Than Current Starter
Just as the grass is always greener, the quarterback will be better on the other side. At least that's the hope.
College football fans can't help themselves when it comes to wanting bigger and better things—it's the nature of fandom. But in the case of some FBS teams, expecting future improvement at the quarterback position is a necessity.
We're still almost five months away from the start of the 2016 season, though at some schools the prospects for 2017 look much better than what's in store this fall. It's not necessarily that the current quarterback situation is bad; rather, it's that the future looks so much brighter than the present.
Here's our list of college football teams that should have a much better starting quarterback in 2017 season than in 2016.
California
1 of 5
Likely 2016 Starter: Chase Forrest
Projected 2017 Starter: Max Gilliam
Sonny Dykes knew he had a good thing going when he arrived at California before the 2013 season, knowing a franchise quarterback that previous coach Jeff Tedford had landed was coming down the pike. He had no qualms about starting Jared Goff as a true freshman that year, and he got three massively productive years out of Goff before he turned pro.
Now comes the task of trying to develop a passer out of his own recruits. Since Goff, Dykes has signed four quarterbacks, including redshirt sophomore Chase Forrest in 2014. Forrest served as Goff's backup last year but only appeared in three games, while 2014 backup Luke Rubenzer moved to safety last season (though he's returned to offense this spring to compete with Forrest and redshirt freshman Ross Bowers).
And then there's Max Gilliam, a 3-star prospect from the 2016 class who is the highest-rated of Dykes' quarterback signees. At 6'3” and 190 pounds he's the same size as Bowers and Forrest but will need time to pick up new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital's system.
Cal is in better shape to let him redshirt this year and go with an existing quarterback for what could be a rebuilding effort following last season's eight-win campaign, but chances are Gilliam will start in 2017.
Minnesota
2 of 5
Likely 2016 Starter: Mitch Leidner
Projected 2017 Starter: Seth Green
Minnesota has never really been known for stellar quarterback play—Craig Curry, in 1972, is the only Golden Gophers passer ever drafted into the NFL—but Mitch Leidner has done an admirable job since taking over as starter midway through the 2014 season. But the redshirt senior hasn't exactly set the world on fire; last year's 2,701 yards and 14 touchdowns served as the team's best totals since 2010 and 2008, respectively.
Leidner is only a career 56.4 percent passer, with 20 interceptions to 28 TDs including 11 picks last year. He's added 23 rushing touchdowns over his tenure, scoring six times on the ground in 2015.
Though Leidner had offseason foot surgery and has been limited this spring, he's still the odds-on favorite to be the starter again this fall. His absence has opened the door for Seth Green to challenge for the job, but he most likely set himself up as the future of the position.
An early enrollee, Green is rated by 247Sports as the 10th-best dual-threat QB in 2016. He's a Minnesota native who spent his senior year of high school in Texas, where he had 2,246 yards of total offense and 29 TDs while sharing the starting job, per SB Nation. Previously committed to Oregon, Green might be the most dynamic player the Gophers have ever had at the position.
Stanford
3 of 5
Likely 2016 Starter: Ryan Burns or Keller Chryst
Projected 2017 Starter: K.J. Costello
Stanford coach David Shaw has had the luxury of having two of the most consistent multiyear starters at quarterback in recent memory. He inherited Andrew Luck for his final season in 2011 and then got Kevin Hogan for the next four years. No wonder the Cardinal have won 54 games in Shaw's five seasons in charge.
The prospects for having another long-term solution at quarterback aren't as good this year, unless Shaw wants to throw a true freshman into the fire. There's no need to, though, since Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst are veterans who spent the last two years serving as Hogan's backups.
247Sports rated K.J. Costello was rated as the No. 3 pro-style passer in the 2016 recruiting class. The 6'4”, 213-pound stud is in the mold of Luck and Hogan. He won't arrive until the summer and needs to build up some strength, and thus he isn't a serious contender to play this season.
The starter will be Burns or Chryst, a redshirt junior and redshirt sophomore, respectively, who have a combined 10 games, 10 pass attempts and 13 rushers between them. One of them will suffice for what Stanford needs in 2016, but in 2017 it will be time to turn to Costello and let another multiyear starter get going.
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Texas A&M
4 of 5
Likely 2016 Starter: Trevor Knight
Projected 2017 Starter: Tate Martell
We're playing with fire a bit trying to project anything associated with Texas A&M's quarterback situation, given the turnover the Aggies have had at that position in the last two years. But if things start to calm down—and a key commitment doesn't continue to waver—then the future looks bright in College Station.
Trevor Knight, a graduate transfer from Oklahoma who played for the Sooners in 2013 and 2014, is all but assured of beating out Jake Hubenak for the starting job this season. It's a job that's ripe for the taking less than two years after A&M seemed like it was creating an assembly line of top passers, but then Kenny Hill transferred after the 2014 season (to Texas A&M) and last fall both Kyle Allen (Houston) and Kyler Murray (Oklahoma) headed elsewhere.
A&M did sign a QB in the 2016 class, getting 3-star Nick Starkel on board after he decommitted from Oklahoma State in December, but it's the player they're in line to add for 2017 that has the Aggies most excited.
Tate Martell, the top dual-threat passer and No. 29 overall prospect in the 2017 class, per 247Sports, pledged to A&M in August. The Las Vegas product told Bleacher Report's Damon Sayles "I now know exactly where I want to go" after he'd previously committed to Washington when he was in eighth grade. But Martell still can't sign for almost 10 months, and while more scholarship offers come in, he made a visit to Ohio State in March.
Assuming Martell sticks with A&M, his pedigree would make him a strong favorite to beat out Hubenak and Starkel in 2017. And while Knight has shown he can play at a high level—remember his dominant performance against Alabama in the 2014 Sugar Bowl?—he's hardly played since November 2014 and wouldn't be in line to start for the Aggies this year if any of their other quarterbacks had stuck around.
West Virginia
5 of 5
Likely 2016 Starter: Skyler Howard
Projected 2017 Starter: Will Grier
Skyler Howard took over as West Virginia's starter late in the 2014 season, his first with the program after coming in as a junior college transfer. He's in line to start on a full-time basis for the second year in a row, and in 2015 he threw for 3,145 yards and 26 touchdowns.
But as good as Howard was in some games—he threw for 532 yards and five TDs in the Cactus Bowl against Arizona State—he also struggled with accuracy and consistency. His 54.8 percent completion rate last year was lowest among all FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 400 passes.
The Mountaineers haven't been able to successfully develop a high school quarterback into a starter since Geno Smith, who graduated in 2012. Howard is the second straight transfer to hold the full-time job, following ex-Florida State passer Clint Trickett in 2013, and Wednesday's announcement that former Florida QB Will Grier is headed to Morgantown makes it likely that transfer/starter trend will continue in 2017.
Grier helped the Gators to a 6-0 start last season, throwing for 1,204 yards and 10 TDs on 65.8 percent passing in six games (five starts). He was only intercepted three times in 161 attempts, compared to 14 for Howard in 403 throws.
But it's unclear when Grier will be allowed to play. He has to sit out 2016, per NCAA transfer rules, but in October he was hit with a one-year NCAA suspension after testing positive for performance-enhancing drugs. If his time off in 2016 counts toward the remainder of that suspension, he'd be eligible at the start of 2017; otherwise, it could be as late as October of that season.
Statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports, unless otherwise noted.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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