Come to Think of It: Cubs Should Bring Rich Harden Back On One-Year Deal

According to most everything I’ve read or heard, it seems a foregone conclusion that Rich Harden won’t be wearing a Cubs uniform next year.

But wait, not so fast.

With Harden’s history of injuries, I would be surprised if he received a multiple-year offer from anybody. If some team has a brain cramp and does so, then the Cubs will say goodbye. Otherwise, I’d like to see him come back.

I know the Cubs need payroll flexibility. But good starting pitching is hard to find. It seems reasonable to pay a guy like Harden $10 million or so for one more year.

Let's say they offer him arbitration. If he leaves for another club, at least the Cubs get compensation. If he accepts the offer, the Cubs might end up overpaying for his services, but it would be for only one year.

Where Jim Hendry and the Cubs might miss out is if they offer Harden a one-year, incentive-laden contract. For such a short term, some team will almost certainly be willing to live with the risk and guarantee a larger base for next season.

But if the Cubs continue to dismiss the possibility of re-signing him outright, then it's likely that Hendry won't even offer him arbitration, meaning he would walk away with nothing in return.

Before you think that's crazy, remember that Hendry did not offer Kerry Wood arbitration last year, for fear that he might actually accept it.

Listening to Lou Piniella talk, it would appear he’s not even considering a return by Harden.

The Chicago Tribune quotes Piniella on his pitching options for next year: "You look at our starting pitching here for next year," Piniella said. "You've got (Carlos) Zambrano, you've got (Ryan) Dempster, you've got (Randy) Wells, you've got (Ted) Lilly, you've got (Tom) Gorzelanny, and you've got (Jeff) Samardzija, who is going to go to winter ball. And if this kid keeps improving, he'll be right in the mix. So we've got six nice arms."

But, despite having staff that is as good as anyone in baseball, it would be a very risky proposition for a team to guarantee multiple years to a pitcher who has been on the disabled list so many times in his career, even though he was relatively healthy this past season.

Another issue is that Harden often piles up the pitch counts early in the game, reducing him to a five-inning starter. This taxes the bullpen. But I believe the Cubs can live with that, using a guy like Tom Gorzelanny or Randy Wells to eat up the innings he leaves behind, considering they are stretched out as starters.

I know that Wells had a surprisingly solid rookie year for the Cubs. But his stuff isn’t impressive, and an ERA of 4.50 or worse is probably in store for him in 2010, unless he has pinpoint control.

Meanwhile, the certain starters for 2010—Carlos Zambrano (assuming he isn’t traded), Ted Lilly, and Ryan Dempster could combine with Harden and either Gorzelanny, Wells, or perhaps even Jeff Samardzija (ugh!) on a pretty decent staff.

Without Harden, you have three starters, that’s it. The rest (yes, including Wells) are a gamble and a prayer.

Unless the offense improves markedly, the Cubs are going to need solid pitching next year.

Remember another guy everyone thought was expendable last year, so we gave him away for basically nothing? He went on to have a fairly decent year for the Rockies, come to think of it. Let’s not make the same mistake again.