SEC Football Q&A: Who Are the X-Factors in the Division Title Races?
In the SEC, one player can make or break your division title campaign.
Alabama rode running back Derrick Henry last year all the way to the national title, which resulted in a Heisman Trophy for the Yulee, Florida, native and an SEC record 2,219 yards.
Georgia, on the other hand, saw its season go up in smoke when star running back Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending knee injury on his first carry in the loss to Tennessee in mid-October.
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Every team has an X-factor or two, and those players will likely determine who the participants will be in the 2016 SEC Championship Game.
Who are those players? That question and more are answered in this week's edition of SEC Q&A.
In the SEC West, it's LSU quarterback Brandon Harris.
The Tigers have all of the other pieces in place to make a run at the division title and perhaps more, with star running back Leonard Fournette back with talented wide receivers, a solid offensive line and a loaded defense that includes defensive lineman Lewis Neal, linebacker Kendell Beckwith, corner Tre'Davious White and safety Jamal Adams.
But save for Zach Mettenberger's senior season in 2013, that quarterback position in Baton Rouge has been the college football equivalent of a barren desert for the better part of a decade.
It seems like it's Harris' job again to change that, although Purdue transfer Danny Etling—who's more suited to run what offensive coordinator Cam Cameron calls—will push him this offseason.
Teams didn't respect LSU's downfield passing game last year, the offensive system or Harris' accuracy. That led to a tailspin that saw head coach Les Miles' crew tumble from No. 2 in the country to Miles nearly hitting the unemployment line.
If Harris can force the opposing defense to respect him just a little bit, LSU will be a contender. If he can't, it's staring at another lackluster season, and Miles could be hitting the bricks.
In the East, it's Tennessee wide receiver Josh Malone.
The 6'3", 197-pound junior had 31 catches for 405 yards and two touchdowns a year ago—second-most on the Vols in each category.
The fact that Malone had those statistics and was either in second all by himself or tied on the Vols in each category is a major indictment of the Vols' passing game. Some of the blame falls on quarterback Joshua Dobbs, but the wide receiving corps as a whole at Tennessee has been a letdown over the last two seasons.
Josh Malone shouldn't be a letdown.
The former 4-star prospect has been banged-up this spring but has all of the physical tools to be a star. He has the frame to be a force as a possession receiver, the speed to be a deep threat and the wingspan to catch anything in his vicinity.
He's been more sizzle than steak through his first two seasons, though.
If Malone can simply become a threat though the air and keep defenses honest, the multidimensional rushing attack will thrive even more than it already has, and the Vols' offense will be tough to beat.
It needs to be Trevor Knight, for a couple of reasons.
First, I don't believe he's truly the "punch line" he has been made out to be nationally ever since Katy Perry put a curse on him on ESPN's College GameDay midway through the 2014 season and he lost his job to Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma. Sure, there have been bad moments, including the win over TCU in which he stepped in for an injured Mayfield and let the Horned Frogs back into a game that they had no business being in.
But he's still a legitimate dual-threat weapon who is a perfect fit for offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone's offense.
He can run enough and is a proven leader after having been voted Oklahoma's team captain twice (including when he wasn't the starter in 2015).
The reason it needs to be Knight is because, with apologies to Jake Hubenak—the other primary contender for the job—Texas A&M needs experience under center this year more than in years past.
Head coach Kevin Sumlin is coaching for his job in 2016, and he has UCLA out of the gate, followed by a road trip to Auburn in Week 3 and the game versus Arkansas at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, in Week 4. Having a player who has been on the big stage before should be a requirement for Sumlin early in the season because if the Aggies sputter, Sumlin might not be there to coach later in the season.
I set the over/under for Georgia's win total for the regular season at 9.5, so 9-3 or 10-2 should be expected—despite Georgia's roster questions and the presence of a first-year head coach in former Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.
Even if running back Nick Chubb isn't 100 percent, 90 percent of Chubb combined with Sony Michel and newcomer Elijah Holyfield should be enough for Georgia's ground game to be elite. The passing game, however, is a mystery. If true freshman early enrollee Jacob Eason does start right away, he will have high points and low points, which will likely lead to some surprising wins and head-scratching losses.
Not many losses, though.
So, to put it more simply, a "typical Georgia season" should be expected. In years past, the Bulldogs have competed with some of the big boys at times, but the absence of consistency has prevented them from contending for national titles. With games versus North Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida and Auburn, losing two or three should be expected in Smart's first year.
Which two or three games result in those losses will determine if Georgia is a contender for the SEC East.
This is actually one of the more critical position battles in the SEC West this spring.
Mississippi State returns its four most prolific running backs from last year's squad, but the most prolific of those—senior Brandon Holloway—only had 413 rushing yards a year ago. With quarterback Dak Prescott gone, the Bulldogs are in desperate need of somebody to step up and replace that production on the ground.
It could be Holloway.
He isn't the prototypical bruiser like Josh Robinson was for Mississippi State back in 2014, but he shouldn't have to be. Prescott was a bruiser on the ground, and if Nick Fitzgerald wins the race to replace Prescott this offseason, the 6'5", 227-pounder will likely have similar responsibilities.
Because of that, it's important for head coach Dan Mullen to find the lightning that will complement the thunder, and Holloway is it.
Behind him, senior Ashton Shumpert (6'2", 218 lbs), sophomore Dontavian Lee (6'1", 227 lbs) and sophomore Aeris Williams (6'1", 205 lbs) will also be in the mix.
But in a perfect world, the home run ability Holloway brings, coupled with his ability to be a threat out of the backfield (33 catches for 396 yards and five touchdowns in 2015), will be the right recipe for the 2016 Bulldogs to stay in the SEC West conversation.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of CFBStats.com unless otherwise noted, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report, as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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