5 Savvy 'Plan B' Options for 2016 NBA Free Agency
As the 2015-16 campaign sprints through its final stretch, the NBA braces itself for the summer of Kevin Durant.
The seven-time All-Star and four-time scoring champ is slated for unrestricted free agency at season's end. His upcoming decision will have a direct effect on the league's hierarchy, either cementing the Oklahoma City Thunder's spot near the top, strengthening another powerhouse or lifting a club into contention.
But only one team can win the Durant sweepstakes. While there will be other top-tier players on the market (Al Horford, DeMar DeRozan, technically LeBron James), this is likely to be an offseason where demand dwarfs supply.
Still, there are plenty of strong options among the "Plan B" free-agent class. This group won't command max money or deals close to it. These are youngsters who've yet to show that top-shelf potential, veterans on the back half of their careers and prime players who sit a few steps below stardom.
These guys won't drive headlines when free agency opens, but their signings will be praised for having sneaky-good value over the course of 2016-17.
Kent Bazemore, Atlanta Hawks
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Kent Bazemore left Old Dominion University in 2012 with NBA-caliber defense. But his rise from cheerleader to spark plug and ultimately to full-time starter comes directly from his offensive improvements.
"A couple years in, my confidence is up and I don't mind shooting the ball from everywhere," Bazemore told The Vertical's Shams Charania. "I understand how to get a shot off or getting my feet set before the ball comes. I know how important that is now."
The Atlanta Hawks can attest to that importance. They've needed every bit of Bazemore's growth on offense to help withstand last summer's loss of DeMarre Carroll. Bazemore has embraced that two-way challenge, averaging career highs in points (11.6), assists (2.2) and true shooting percentage (55.3), while slicing 2.1 points off his opponent's field-goal conversion rate.
The building blocks of a strong three-and-D game are in place. At 6'5" with a near-7-foot wingspan, he has the size, length and athleticism to check any perimeter position. He's more of an adequate shooter than a good one (career 35.1 percent from three), but defenses still have to respect his range. And when the long ball isn't there, he can make plays off the bounce or move it to open teammates.
Considering he didn't start averaging 15 minutes a night over the course of a full season until 2014-15, he offers immense growth potential. Whether the Hawks retain him or someone swoops him out of Atlanta, he'll generate substantial interest for the player he is now and the one he may become.
Luol Deng, Miami Heat
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The "Plan B" designation is a familiar one for Luol Deng. Just two summers back, the Miami Heat brought him in to (slightly) cushion the blow of LeBron James' departure.
Mileage and age have both added up for the 30-year-old former All-Star, but the Heat may have found the perfect strategy to combat that. When Miami lost Chris Bosh to blood clots at the All-Star break, head coach Erik Spoelstra unleashed Deng as a versatile small-ball 4.
It's looked like the career small forward's natural calling. Deng's instincts and energy have long allowed him to body up bigger, stronger players defensively. Since making the position switch, he's run circles around those same behemoths, sprinting in transition, pushing the ball off rebounds and constantly cutting off the ball in half-court sets.
"I'm probably more happy for him than almost anybody because, for a year-and-a-half, he was struggling in a way," Heat president Pat Riley said, per Ethan J. Skolnick of the Miami Herald. "And the way the game is played today, [power forward] may be his natural position."
Deng's stat sheet suggests as much. His post-All-Star numbers are almost unrecognizable from the ones he compiled prior to intermission: 15.8 points, 8.7 rebounds and a 47.6 field-goal percentage now; 10.6, 4.7 and 43.1, respectively, before. The Heat have fared 7.8 points better per 100 possessions with him than without over that stretch.
Today's game demands skill, spacing and versatility from power forwards. Deng comfortably checks off all three boxes at his new position.
Festus Ezeli, Golden State Warriors
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Festus Ezeli's next paycheck won't reach as high as his valuable skill set. He can blame his injury history for that.
After playing 78 games as a rookie in 2012-13, he's made just 86 appearances over the two-plus years since. He missed his entire sophomore campaign after right knee surgery and is currently working his way back from arthroscopic surgery on the left one. He lost a large chunk of last season to a nagging ankle sprain.
But when his body cooperates, he plays like a starting-caliber center. Over this season and last, he's averaged 14.9 points, 11.5 rebounds and 2.7 blocks per 36 minutes. The only player to actually clear 14 points, 10 boards and two blocks per game during that stretch is budding superstar Anthony Davis.
He protects the rim at an elite level, surrendering just 43.3 percent shooting there in 2015-16. He's a tremendous athlete for his size (6'11", 255 lbs), which makes him an asset in the pick-and-roll game. A late bloomer, his game continues to develop with a sharper IQ, softer hands and budding interior skills.
"The game is slowing down for him," ESPN.com's Ethan Sherwood Strauss wrote in November. "He's patient when pump faking defenders. He's even making a few plays on dribble handoffs."
Ezeli is a young 26-year-old in basketball terms, and his ceiling seems to rise every time he makes it between the lines. For teams that miss out on (or don't participate in) the bidding wars for Al Horford, Hassan Whiteside and Dwight Howard, a discounted, developing Ezeli could be a brilliant investment.
Evan Fournier, Orlando Magic
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Evan Fournier, the 20th pick in 2012, arrived to the NBA drawing Manu Ginobili comparisons. While it seems highly unlikely Fournier will ever reach the level of future Hall of Famer, if you squint enough, you can see the resemblance.
Fournier has exquisite footwork, which aides him both in racing around screens and navigating through tight spaces. He's a knockdown shooter off the catch (41.6 percent on catch-and-shoot triples) and a crafty creator off the dribble. He can't quite handle primary scoring or distributing duties, but he can play an impact support role in either category.
This season, he's posted personal bests in points (14.8), assists (2.6), rebounds (2.9) and player efficiency rating (14.3). He's also one of only nine qualified shooters hitting at least 45 percent from the field, 39 percent outside and 80 percent at the stripe.
"That's what basketball is all about," Fournier said, per Magic.com's John Denton. "If you (score) 40 points, but you shoot 40 times, it's not really great for the team. I'm just trying to be as efficient as possible."
That's an aim all scorers should have in today's analytically inclined environment. It's also potentially enough for suitors to overlook Fournier's defensive deficiencies (opponents shoot 2.9 points higher against him than they do on average).
On a contender, he'd probably work best in a Ginobili-esque instant offense role. If the Orlando Magic let Fournier walk in restricted free agency, he could breathe life into someone's bench—a role that's easy to overlook but one that can potentially turn the tide of a postseason series.
Brandon Jennings, Orlando Magic
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The point guard portion of this year's free-agent class is Mike Conley and everyone else. Brandon Jennings could be the most desirable member of that second group.
Admittedly, he hasn't looked worthy of holding that distinction for some time. His stats have reached career-worst levels nearly across the board, including 7.1 points per game, 36.7 percent shooting and a 13.7 PER.
But there's a reason for the decline. The 26-year-old is still working his way back from a torn Achilles suffered in January 2015.
"I think it'll take him until probably next year, to be quite honest, to be back to where he was," Detroit Pistons president-coach Stan Van Gundy said, per Pistons.com's Keith Langlois. "I don't think he's at 100 percent physically and I would think the 100 percent will come as he gets into training camp next fall."
Forward-thinking executives should see this as an opportunity to land an in-prime floor general at a potentially discounted rate. Before the injury, Jennings was playing some of the best basketball of his career: 20.1 points on 43.6 percent shooting (39.4 from deep) and 6.8 assists (against 2.1 turnovers) during his final 15 pre-injury outings of 2014-15.
At his best, he's an electric scorer who can ignite from downtown and doesn't turn the ball over. While he can get a little trigger-happy at times, he did have the third-most assists from 2011-14. Conley deserves his spot atop the position, but Jennings' offense and upside could garner him No. 2—quite possibly without the No. 2 salary.
Unless otherwise noted, statistics used courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com and current entering games March 27.
