Predicting College Football's Cinderellas for 2016 Season
Everyone loves a good Cinderella story. Last weekend, college hoops fans huddled around televisions in their homes, workplaces and sports bars and watched the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders stun the second-seeded Michigan State Spartans, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors surprise the Cal Golden Bears and the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks run the West Virginia Mountaineers out of the NCAA Tournament. March is known for its magical runs by low-seeded teams, but the concept isn’t limited to basketball.
College football teams can weave their own unlikely narratives, and they do on a regular basis. Two years ago, did anyone expect the TCU Horned Frogs to become a College Football Playoff contender? Last fall, if you told anyone outside of Iowa that Kirk Ferentz’s Iowa Hawkeyes would wind up inches short of a playoff berth, they’d have thought you crazy. But both the Horned Frogs and Hawkeyes captured the nation’s fancy with impressive runs, and more Cinderella stories are on their way this fall.
We don’t know exactly who they are yet, and that’s part of the fun. Maybe it’s a team that isn’t from a traditional Power Five conference or a team that has spent the last few years out of the national limelight. Either way, those teams will emerge this fall.
Here are our best guesses at surprising stories that will make their way into the national limelight this fall. They might be underperforming teams, they might have the experience or schedule to break through or they might be from a nontraditional conference. Either way, they fit the bill here.
Boise State
1 of 7
The Boise State Broncos have long been one of the nation’s best mid-major programs. The Broncos enjoyed excellent success under head coach Chris Petersen, and successor Bryan Harsin has picked up right where Petersen left off. In two seasons, the former Bronco player and assistant is 21-6, including a 12-win season and Fiesta Bowl victory in his debut season in 2014.
Boise has hopes to scale even bigger heights in 2016. The Broncos return 15 starters, including nine from an offense that averaged 37.8 points per game last fall. Quarterback Brett Rypien threw for 3,353 yards and 20 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and tailback Jeremy McNichols churned his way to 1,337 yards and 20 touchdowns on the ground.
Top receiver Thomas Sperbeck is back after making 88 catches for 1,412 yards and eight scores last fall. Boise will have to impress against a schedule that doesn’t have a true marquee name on it. The biggest challenges will come against a pair of Cougars; both Washington State's high-powered offense as well as BYU visit Boise’s blue turf. But if the Broncos run the table and chaos reigns elsewhere, who knows?
BYU
2 of 7
As one of only three FBS independents, the BYU Cougars have to work a little harder to get sustained national attention. The Cougars can make the College Football Playoff, but they do not have a path into the New Year’s Six bowls like the fellow independent Notre Dame Fighting Irish enjoy. Unless BYU makes the playoff, it is already locked into the Poinsettia Bowl in 2016.
First-year coach Kalani Sitake hopes to change that equation after coming over from the Oregon State Beavers. Sitake inherits 13 starters, but his biggest question is at quarterback. Talented but oft-injured senior Taysom Hill gets a sixth season to challenge sophomore Tanner Mangum for the starting role. Mangum excelled last season when Hill went down in the opener with a Lisfranc foot fracture, throwing for 3,377 yards with 23 touchdowns against 10 interceptions.
The schedule will not lack for opportunities to impress. In the first seven games, BYU faces the Arizona Wildcats at University of Phoenix Stadium, travels to play the Utah Utes, hosts the UCLA Bruins, meets West Virginia at FedEx Field in Landover, Maryland, travels to Michigan State and hosts the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Come out of that stretch unbeaten, and the nation will have to take BYU seriously, especially given that the schedule softens considerably in the back half.
Houston
3 of 7
The Houston Cougars might seem like an odd choice as a “Cinderella,” given the success they enjoyed in their first season under Tom Herman’s guidance. An underachieving group finished 13-1 with an American Athletic Conference title and a Peach Bowl win over the Florida State Seminoles, with its only loss coming at the UConn Huskies with dynamic quarterback Greg Ward Jr. injured.
However, it should be noted that making the College Football Playoff remains very tough for a Group of Five team, even one as polished as Houston. If Herman’s group makes a serious run, it would be a very impressive feat.
The Cougars return 12 starters, with Ward the biggest key. He threw for 2,828 yards with 17 touchdowns against six interceptions and was also Houston’s leading rusher with 1,108 yards and 21 scores on the ground. Houston must replace both starting offensive tackles and three members of the starting secondary, as well as wideout Demarcus Ayers and tailback Kenneth Farrow.
But there are opportunities for the Cougars to prove their mettle. The playoff-qualifying Oklahoma Sooners visit NRG Stadium to open the season, and the Louisville Cardinals visit Nov. 17. A Black Friday trip to face the Memphis Tigers will also be crucial. If the Cougars can run the table in impressive fashion, they could grab the selection committee’s attention.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Louisville
4 of 7
Bobby Petrino’s second stint as Louisville’s head coach has been a little tougher than his first, largely because the Cardinals’ surroundings are tougher. Petrino went 41-9 in four seasons as Louisville’s coach in Conference USA and the Big East, but playing in the same ACC division as the Clemson Tigers and Florida State has been a different story.
Louisville has pushed both teams, but Petrino is 0-4 against the Tigers and Seminoles, and the Cardinals are 17-9 overall in two seasons in the ACC under his watch. However, it’s important to note that Louisville returns plenty of experience this season, with 18 starters back from 2015’s 8-5 team.
Emerging quarterback Lamar Jackson has a pair of talented wide receiver targets in James Quick and Jamari Staples, and TCU transfer Devonte Fields is an imposing pass rusher. Safety Josh Harvey-Clemons and cornerback Shaq Wiggins anchor a good secondary.
Louisville hosts Florida State and travels to Clemson in a three-week span—with a trip to play the Marshall Thundering Herd sandwiched in between—a stretch that could define its season. If Jackson continues his development and the defense steps forward, the Cardinals could challenge for the ACC Atlantic title and perhaps much more.
Miami
5 of 7
Sometimes, teams and coaches just need a fresh start. That was the case for both the Miami Hurricanes and new head coach Mark Richt. After 15 very successful seasons with the Georgia Bulldogs, fans and administrators had seen enough of Richt after the Bulldogs missed the SEC title game for three consecutive seasons. Miami hit its boiling point with former boss Al Golden following a program-worst 58-0 home loss to Clemson, firing him the following day.
Miami and Richt—a former Hurricane quarterback and south Florida native—were a natural match. The Canes haven’t made the ACC title game since joining the league in 2005, and Richt hopes to change that. Miami returns 16 starters, led by talented junior quarterback Brad Kaaya, and avoids Clemson in the ACC schedule rotation.
Florida State comes to Sun Life Stadium, and while Miami must travel to the Virginia Tech Hokies and Notre Dame in back-to-back weeks—as well as the Appalachian State Mountaineers in mid-September—if anyone can unlock this sleeping giant’s potential, it is Richt.
Nebraska
6 of 7
It hasn’t been a fun few years to be a Nebraska Cornhuskers football fan. Since legendary coach Tom Osborne’s departure, the Cornhuskers have struggled for national relevance. They haven’t challenged for a national title since making the 2002 BCS National Championship and absorbing a waxing from Miami, and 2015 was a nadir.
After firing steadily successful but hotheaded coach Bo Pelini, his replacement, former Oregon State coach Mike Riley, struggled mightily in his first season in Lincoln. Nebraska finished the regular season 5-7 and needed an NCAA waiver due to the lack of six-win teams to avoid missing a bowl for only the third time since 1969. The Huskers validated their inclusion with a win over UCLA, but a 6-7 season is hardly the kind of finish fans in Lincoln dream of.
Nobody that came here expects 5-7 is acceptable,” Riley told Tom Shatel of the Omaha World-Herald. “We know we failed. We know it’s got to get better. How are we going to do that?”
Are better things on the way this fall? Perhaps. One of Nebraska’s biggest 2015 downfalls was close games. The Huskers lost five games by five points or fewer. Sixteen starters return, and a more experienced team might show that it has learned from those disappointments.
Senior quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. threw for 3,030 yards and 22 touchdowns last season, and if he can cut down on his 16 interceptions, he can be a dangerous dual-threat passer. Leading rusher Terrell Newby also returns, as does No. 1 receiver Jordan Westerkamp (65 receptions, 918 yards, seven touchdowns).
Nebraska travels to Iowa, the Ohio State Buckeyes and Wisconsin Badgers, but it gets the Indiana Hoosiers and Maryland Terrapins out of the Big Ten East while avoiding the Michigan Wolverines and Michigan State. The biggest non-conference game—against the Oregon Ducks—is at home, and Riley’s bunch will have opportunities to improve. If Iowa can make a 12-0 run out of the Big Ten West, why can’t Nebraska?
Washington
7 of 7
Chris Petersen built an impressive resume at Boise State. In eight seasons with the Broncos, Petersen went 92-12, including seven seasons with at least 10 wins and a pair of undefeated campaigns. He has yet to duplicate that success with the Washington Huskies, who are 15-12 in his two seasons. But this could be the year Petersen’s luck changes in Seattle.
Washington returns 15 starters from a 7-6 team, giving 2016 a high ceiling. Quarterback Jake Browning is one of the nation’s most promising young passers and threw for 2,955 yards with 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions last fall. Freshman tailback Myles Gaskin was very impressive, rushing for 1,302 yards and 14 touchdowns in his college debut. On the other side of the ball, safety Budda Baker is a defensive leader and an All-American candidate.
Washington’s schedule sets up nicely as well. The Stanford Cardinal and Southern California Trojans visit Seattle, while Washington visits Oregon, Utah and Arizona. There are reasons to believe the Huskies could howl their way to the top of the Pac-12 and beyond in 2016.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
