Three Years After Considering Quitting, Greinke's a Cy Young Favorite

Originally written on September 22

Zack Greinke was ready to quit baseball. He was a 22-year-old phenom and hated the attention that came along with the pressure to succeed amidst high expectations. He’d had enough.

The lanky righthander was drafted out of high school by the Kansas City Royals in 2002. He wasn’t supposed to be, though. Before the 2002 MLB Draft, Allan Baird, the Royals General Manager at the time, informed his scouting staff that he was leaning towards drafting a college pitcher in the opening round.

Considering he had drafted two high school pitchers the previous two years—Mike Stodolka in 2000’s first round, who was out of baseball by the end of 2003, and Colt Griffin in 2001’s first round, whose career ended after a stint in Double-A in 2005—he had reason to stop the trend from continuing.

But Baird hadn’t heard about Zack Greinke yet, a then-18-year-old righthander out of Florida. At first, he balked at the scout’s suggestion by stating the obvious: “He’s not a college pitcher.”

The scout who had informed him about the teenage prodigy responded: “He might as well be. He’s closer to the majors than any of the college pitchers available.” Sold on the scout’s argument, Baird took a chance on another high-schooler. The third time was the charm.

In his first professional season, Greinke climb the Royals minor league ladder, starting the year with their rookie-league affiliate and finishing it in high-A ball. He didn’t factor in a decision in any of the six starts he made for the three teams that year and accumulated just 11 1/3 innings.

The next year he had a far bigger impact. He spent the entire year in high-A and was magnificent: 11-1 in 14 starts, throwing three complete games, allowing just 16 runs in 87 innings, and posting an otherworldly 1.14 ERA. He, the words of sportswriter John Sickels, was considered “the best righthanded pitching prospect in the game.”

Sickels, in this 2003 article, continued his praise of Greinke:

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“Greinke is an excellent overall athlete, who was mostly a position player before his senior year in high school. He moved to the mound full-time a few months before the ‘02 draft, and showed stunningly quick development. Greinke’s fastball has been clocked as high as 96 mph, though it’s more usually in the 90-93 mph range. He hits spots with it, and isn’t afraid to throw inside. His curveball and changeup are already above-average pitches.

He has the mound presence of a veteran, with excellent command and control, both of his pitches and of his emotions. He is quite intelligent, but so far has avoided over-thinking on the mound, a bad habit that hurts some intellectual pitchers.”

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Instead of over-thinking on the mound, he began to over-think off of it. After his superb 2003 season that made him the Royals top prospect, he skipped double-A, which is rare, and made the huge leap to Triple-A. A year and a half removed from high-school, and he was already one step away from accomplishing his boyhood goal.

His dream came true not long after receiving the promotion: six starts was all he needed with Omaha of the Pacific Coast League. The Royals had seen enough–in their eyes, he was ready for the bigs. Greinke thought so as well at the time, but his confidence soon waned.

He made 24 starts for Kansas City during that 2004 season and though he had 11 losses to 8 wins while allowing 26 homers, his ERA was a very respectable 3.97. He was just 20 years old and, portrayed as the Golden Boy, had far too much pressure riding on his right arm.

The high expectations led to a miserable 2005 season. He entered the year considered the future ace of the Royals, the highest of all pedestals, and couldn’t handle all the hype surrounding him. Worse, he didn’t want to; he just wanted to pitch–do what he loved without all the press and lofty expectations hanging over his head.

He wanted to be good, but fly under the radar. This was impossible. Coming to grips with this reality crumbled his confidence and ate at his psyche.

He went 5-17 with a wretched 5.80 ERA in 2005, allowing 50 more hits than innings pitched (233:183). He transformed from a promising talent into one of the major league’s worst; his 17 losses were second-most in baseball and his 5.80 ERA was third-worst.

But he was too talented to be this terrible. Something clearly wasn’t right, and the Royals had no idea what it was.

That was until this became public knowledge: Greinke had been battling severe depression and a variety of anxiety disorder for the better part of his life. Sports Illustrated’s John Donovan described what Greinke was going through in this 2007 piece. Here is an excerpt that best describes his struggles:

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“Even during his short stint in the minors, he struggled with his depression, entertaining thoughts of quitting a game he had grown to despise. He pitched on, though…deepening his depression and hatred of the game.

Last February, during a wild throwing session with catcher John Buck at the team’s spring training complex here on the outskirts of Phoenix, he broke down completely. Afterward, he unburdened himself to [manager Buddy] Bell and Baird, then missed almost the entire season as he sought psychological help.“

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Remarkably, he exorcised his demons and returned to the Royals in high spirits. His performance reflected his rejuvenation. He spent the majority of the 2007 season in the bullpen, but of his 52 appearances, made fourteen starts; overall, he posted a 7-7 record with a 3.69 ERA.

The following season was even better, partly because he returned to his previous role as a full-time starter. With his depression cured, he returned atop the Royals rotation, still young at 24. He flourished, going 13-10 with a 3.47 ERA, and a respectable 1.28 WHIP (Walks + Hits Per Inning Pitched). Kansas City had their ace back, who was glad to be back.

Greinke had similar expectations going into this 2009 season than he had going into his 2006 season, but this time, he handled the spotlight and excelled under it. He loved baseball again, loved playing for the Royals, and, out of the gate, enjoyed mowing down the opposition.

He didn’t allow a run in his first three starts, a span of 20 innings, and won all three games. He won his next three starts as well, and over the six-start span had surrendered only three runs.

He was a tough-luck loser in his seventh start; his Royals were shut out and he allowed just one run over eight innings. The lack of run support continued after he finished the month of May with an 8-1 record and a 1.10 ERA, and after a rocky June in which his ERA was 4.05.

During the month of July, the Royals lost all six of his starts and managed to score only six total runs. His ERA had ballooned to 2.08 and his win-loss difference tightened, as his record stood at 10-7.

Kansas City scored twenty runs for Greinke in August, but he was still able to collect three victories, bringing his total to thirteen. A total that increased to fourteen after five scoreless innings against Detroit. The Boston Red Sox were next up and, given the run he was on, didn’t stand a chance.

After receiving minimalistic support for more than three months, his anemic offense went crazy early against the very hittable Paul Byrd to the tune of five first inning runs. That was more than enough.

In fact, for once, two would have been an adequate amount. He threw a lot of pitches (who doesn’t against Boston?), but the Red Sox patience didn’t amount to any runs. Greinke tossed six shutout innings, allowing the only two hits the Royals would allow, while striking out five. The five-run first easily held, and a 15th win was collected.

Many in the media believed entering the month of September that the Cy Young was Greinke’s to lose. Now, he is firmly in the driver’s seat to win the prestigious award.

He’s become one of the best pitchers in baseball, if not the best, but the anxiety still lingers. In an article by WEEI’s Alex Speier, Greinke talks about the possibility of leaving Kansas City as a free-agent in 2010 and said “Now, maybe New York would bother me, but I don’t think anywhere else would bother me anymore. New York, I still might have trouble in New York. I probably would. But I think almost everyone does.”

Three years ago, he would have never thought he’d still be pitching now, let alone be the top candidate for the American League Cy Young Award. But, I’m sure, if he wins, he doesn’t want too much made of it, nor does he want it to lead to a prolonged stay in New York. Now, that’s the only thing he couldn’t handle, his only fear.