Setting Over/Under Win Totals for Every Big Ten Football Team for 2016
The start of the college football season is still more than six months away, but Las Vegas sportsbooks have already posted some future bets for the 2016 season.
And while win totals aren't readily available just yet, it's never too early to start looking ahead to what realistic expectations for each program in the coming season should be. That rings especially true in the Big Ten, which should see plenty of movement—and overall improvement—from the 2015 season.
Which new coaches will make an instant impact?
Which second-year head coaches will further their development?
How will some teams fare after overhauling their rosters?
Those questions will be answered in the coming months. But for now, here's a look at where each Big Ten team's over/under win total should stand heading into the 2016 season.
Note: Win totals are based on regular-season records only and do not include potential postseason games.
Purdue: 2.5
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After having compiled a 6-30 record—including a 2-22 mark in Big Ten play—the past three seasons, it's hard to give Purdue the benefit of the doubt under head coach Darrell Hazell.
And 2016 may prove to be a particularly tough year for the Boilermakers in what appears to be an improving Big Ten West.
After starting the season with a matchup against FCS foe Eastern Kentucky, Purdue will take on a pair of 2015 bowl teams in Cincinnati and Nevada. Then, the real fun in the Boilermakers' season will begin, with three of their first four conference matchups coming on the road.
If there's one pro to Purdue's 2016 schedule, it's that it will avoid Big Ten East powerhouses in its cross-divisional games, facing Maryland, Penn State and Indiana instead. It's also worth noting that four of the Boilermakers' first six Big Ten contests will come against teams that possessed losing records in 2015.
Then again, so did Purdue, which posted a conference-worst 2-10 mark a year ago. With Purdue returning 66 percent of its production from last year's team, according to SBNation's Bill Connelly, bettors should be forced to decide whether or not the Boilermakers' schedule will allow them to improve by one whole win in 2016.
Rutgers: 3.5
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All things considered, Rutgers should take a step forward instead of a step back following the hiring of head coach Chris Ash.
But when taking into account the Scarlet Knights' upcoming schedule, it's not unrealistic to think they might not match last season's 4-8 record that led to former head coach Kyle Flood's firing.
Starting the season in Seattle, where it will face Washington (7-6 in 2015), Rutgers will have its work cut out for itself in the out-of-conference portion of its schedule with New Mexico (7-6) sandwiching a battle with FCS opponent Howard. The Scarlet Knights won't waste any time getting to the toughest part of their conference slate either, facing Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan (combined 34-6 in 2015) in consecutive weeks to start their Big Ten schedule.
While a three-game stretch against Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana (combined 17-21 in 2015) follows, there only appears to be so many winnable games on Rutgers' slate.
Ash can still make progress and an instant impact in his first season in Piscataway, New Jersey, but from a record standpoint, the Scarlet Knights may have to take one step back before taking two—or more—forward.
Indiana: 5
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A 6-7 season in 2015, which included a controversial loss to Duke in the Pinstripe Bowl, was enough to land Indiana head coach Kevin Wilson a six-year contract extension.
But just because the Hoosiers appeared in their first bowl game in eight years doesn't necessarily mean they're on the right path.
At least, it may not appear so in 2016, as Wilson will have to deal with the losses of star quarterback Nate Sudfeld and running back Jordan Howard. Indiana's schedule won't do it many favors either, although the Hoosiers do start the year with out-of-conference games against three teams coming off losing seasons in FIU, Ball State and Wake Forest.
After that, however, Indiana will be subjected to a brutal run through the Big Ten East, kicking off with consecutive games against Michigan State and Ohio State. A regular-season finale against Purdue could help pad the team's record, but bettors will have to weigh the relatively easy start to the Hoosiers' schedule against one of the toughest divisions in college football and all that Wilson's squad will be replacing from a year ago.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Maryland: 5.5
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Like Ash, new Maryland head coach D.J. Durkin will have his hands full after taking over a program coming off a disappointing losing season.
But unlike their rivals, the Terrapins possess a much more manageable schedule in 2016 than the Scarlet Knights do.
In fact, it's not unrealistic to think Maryland could start the season with a 3-0 record, with games against Howard, FIU and UCF comprising its out-of-conference schedule. After that, a 4-0 start is also in play, with the Terrapins opening Big Ten play with a cross-divisional game against Purdue.
Altogether, Maryland's first four opponents of the 2016 season combined for an 8-39 record just a year ago, with five of those wins coming from FIU alone.
The rest of the Terrapins' slate will be no cakewalk, including a stretch where they'll play Big Ten East powers Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State in a four-week span. But a relatively easy start to its schedule may be just what Maryland needs coming off last season's 3-9 campaign. It could make bettors contemplate whether or not Durkin is capable of doubling his program's win total in just one season.
Illinois: 5.5
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While the sudden hiring of Lovie Smith should provide a boost to an Illinois program in need of just that, a dramatic improvement in the Fighting Illini's overall record may not come until 2017 at the earliest.
At least that appears to be the case when looking at Illinois' upcoming schedule, which starts with FCS opponent Murray State but continues its out-of-conference portion against bowl teams from a season ago in North Carolina and Western Michigan. After that, the Illini will start their Big Ten slate with three games against teams with losing records last season in Nebraska, Purdue and Rutgers, but that's as easy as it should get for Smith in 2016.
Starting with an Oct. 22 matchup with Michigan in Ann Arbor, five of Illinois' final six games will come against teams that won at least 10 games in 2015. That stretch will include hosting Michigan State, as well as three straight games to end the season against Big Ten West contenders Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern.
If Smith is going to get the Illini on track, it's going to require beating some teams they wouldn't have seemed to have much of a shot against in the past. One short season simply might not be enough to show that type of progress, leaving bettors to determine whether Illinois will get better or stay the same in 2016.
Penn State: 6.5
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After winning six regular-season games in 2014 and seven a year ago, Penn State should be due for improvement in 2016 entering its third season under James Franklin.
But with the loss of quarterback Christian Hackenberg—and a lack of uninspiring replacements in State College—doing just that might be easier said than done.
After opening the season with MAC opponent Kent State, the Nittany Lions will have their work cut out for them in games against in-state foes Pitt and Temple, the latter of which toppled Penn State a year ago. After that, the Nittany Lions will travel to Ann Arbor to face Michigan in their Big Ten opener, with games against Minnesota and Maryland and a bye week sandwiched between a showdown with Ohio State.
And while the presence of Purdue as a cross-divisional opponent should help Franklin's cause, Penn State's battle with the Boilermakers comes one week before taking on defending Big Ten West champ Iowa. After two largely inconsistent seasons under Franklin, 2016's schedule may not allow much room for progress—at least from a record standpoint.
Minnesota: 7.5
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Despite a disappointing 5-7 regular season, Minnesota still managed to end its 2015 campaign on a high note with a win over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl.
The coming season could allow even more progress for the Golden Gophers under the direction of head coach Tracy Claeys, particularly with a schedule that will leave bettors wondering just how many wins Minnesota will add to its total.
Following a manageable out-of-conference slate (Oregon State, Indiana State and Colorado State), the Golden Gophers will face two formidable foes in Penn State and Iowa. After that, however, Minnesota is more than capable of a run, playing five consecutive games against teams that had losing records in 2015.
Of course, the same could be said for Minnesota, but without the distraction of Jerry Kill's midseason departure, the Gophers could have been looking at a much different outcome to their season. This year will give Minnesota the opportunity to prove as much, as its favorable schedule should lead to an increase in wins for the Golden Gophers.
By just how many? That remains to be seen.
Northwestern: 7.5
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Coming off a 10-2 regular season in 2015, there's reason for plenty of optimism in Evanston, Illinois, when it comes to Northwestern.
But the Wildcats' 2016 slate won't be nearly as friendly and will truly test just where Pat Fitzgerald's program stands in the Big Ten.
In particular, cross-divisional games against Michigan State and Ohio State could prove problematic, after Northwestern enjoyed avoiding both programs a year ago. It also won't help the Wildcats that their two out-of-conference games against FBS opponents will come against teams that participated in bowl games last postseason in Western Michigan and Duke.
Then again, this is the same Northwestern team that knocked off Stanford in its season opener last year and came within one game of winning the Big Ten West. But as far as consistency is concerned, the Wildcats still have a lot to prove, and 2016 provides an opportunity for them to do just that.
Nebraska: 7.5
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As far as teams that are poised to make a big jump in the Big Ten in 2016 are concerned, Nebraska might be at the top of the list.
And not just because the Cornhuskers return plenty of talent from last season's 5-7 squad that went on to win the Foster Farms Bowl, or because they expect to improve in their second season under head coach Mike Riley. When it comes to cross-divisional draws, Nebraska may possess the most favorable in the West, with games against Indiana and Maryland making its other East matchup, Ohio State, not seem so bad.
Although an out-of-conference slate that includes Oregon isn't ideal, Nebraska's presumed self-improvement combined with a nine-game conference slate that includes five teams with losing records from a year ago could leave bettors deciding whether or not the Huskers are a full three games better than they were a year ago.
It's also worth noting that as everyone searches for a surprise team like Iowa from a year ago, Nebraska's name seems to come up often, which could inflate the Huskers' value in the gambling world in 2016.
Wisconsin: 8
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With a 9-3 regular-season record, Wisconsin somehow managed to fly under the radar in 2015 and seems to have plenty going for it in 2016.
One factor that is not working in the Badgers' favor, however, will be their schedule.
Starting with a season opener against LSU—albeit in Green Bay—Wisconsin is embarking on what could well be the Big Ten's toughest draw in 2016. The Badgers' three cross-divisional opponents are the Big Ten East's undisputed best, and to add insult to injury, Wisconsin will have to face Michigan State, Michigan and Ohio State in consecutive games to start conference play.
After that, it doesn't get much easier, with the Badgers heading to Iowa City for a divisional opener against reigning Big Ten West champ Iowa right after playing the Buckeyes. Altogether, Wisconsin's first four Big Ten opponents this season combined for a 46-8 record in 2015.
Even with the Badgers' final three opponents possessing losing records last season, that's not going to leave much room for error. Wisconsin may ultimately be better than it was a year ago, but it's unlikely that will be reflected in the record.
Michigan State: 8.5
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After having won at least 10 games in each of the past three seasons, Michigan State now finds itself facing life without two cornerstones of its program in Connor Cook and Shilique Calhoun and dealing with the departures of several other key players.
The Spartans' schedule won't do much to ease along their transition either, with out-of-conference games against Notre Dame and BYU and cross-divisional matchups against a pair of teams that won 10 games a year ago in Northwestern and Wisconsin.
When you consider that the Big Ten East is arguably the nation's most competitive division, Michigan State could well be in for the dreaded "rebuilding" year. Hosting fellow divisional elites Ohio State and Michigan in East Lansing will help, but that likely won't be enough to secure a fourth consecutive 10-win season.
In other words, the Spartans enter 2016 as the underdogs. And they wouldn't have it any other way.
Iowa: 9
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A year ago, nobody saw Iowa's 12-0 regular-season record coming.
Now heading into 2016, nobody seems to know where to place expectations for the Hawkeyes.
On one hand, Iowa returns 72 percent of its combined production from a year ago, including Thorpe Award winner Desmond King and second-team All-Big Ten quarterback C.J. Beathard. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes face a tougher conference schedule, with Michigan and Penn State being added as cross-divisional opponents.
When you add in that it may not find itself on the right side of close wins as often as it did a year ago, as was the case in nail-biters against Wisconsin and Nebraska, Iowa's perfect regular-season record is going to be hard to replicate. Make no mistake, the Hawkeyes should still be considered the Big Ten West favorites—maybe just not by as a wide of a margin as one would expect from a formerly 12-0 team that is returning as much talent as Iowa is.
Michigan: 10
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After winning nine regular-season games in its first go-round under Jim Harbaugh, Michigan is looking to improve even more in 2016.
And with the setup of the Wolverines schedule, that's entirely possible.
With a nonconference slate that includes a UCF team that was winless a year ago, Michigan should get off to a strong start, preparing the Wolverines for a Big Ten slate that will include cross-divisional games against Wisconsin and Iowa. And while it won't help that Michigan will be seeking revenge on Michigan State from a year ago in East Lansing, the Wolverines roster is better than it was in 2015, while the Spartans' may have gotten worse.
Ultimately, however, Michigan's season will come down to a Nov. 26 trip to Columbus to face Ohio State in a game that could well decide the Big Ten East title. The Wolverines aren't the favorites yet, but they aren't far behind either, as Michigan may wind up being a hot preseason playoff pick for many prognosticators.
Ohio State: 10.5
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Replacing 16 combined starters and returning just 29 percent of its production—the second-lowest of any team in the nation—from a year ago, Ohio State will have a tough time replicating the 11-1 regular-season records that it has enjoyed in each of the past two years.
Under Urban Meyer, however, there is rarely rebuilding but rather reloading, as evidenced by the Buckeyes' standing as the sportsbooks' current favorite to win the 2016 national title, per Odds Shark.
Ohio State's schedule will complicate matters, particularly when it comes to a Week 3 road matchup against 2016 playoff participant Oklahoma, which returns starting quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Buckeyes' cross-divisional matchups will be no cakewalk either, with Wisconsin and Northwestern having each won 10 games a year ago and Nebraska possessing the potential to be much improved.
But even with back-to-back games against Michigan State and Michigan to close the regular season, Ohio State still has more talent on its roster than any other team in the conference. Factoring in their trip to Norman, the Buckeyes may not be able to keep pace with the 22 combined regular-season wins they've racked up in the past two years—but they likely won't be far off either.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
