10 College Football Teams That Are Locks to Win 10 Games in 2016
Success in college football means different things to different teams. Some won't be satisfied unless they take home a championship, while others just want to see improvement of some kind.
But a good baseline for success across all conferences year in and year out is the vaunted 10-win mark. By reaching double-digit wins in a season, a program has secured its spot as one of the best in the country—no matter what bowl it reaches or what its strength of schedule is.
Last year, 29 teams won 10 games, ranging from the College Football Playoff and "New Year's Six" qualifiers to the best of the best in the "Group of Five" conferences. How many will get there in the 2016 season?
College football is wildly unpredictable by nature. Massive upsets and major injuries happen. Teams fall well below expectations. There are only a few "sure things" out there.
But here are 10 college football teams that should be considered locks to win 10 games in 2016, provided they stay healthy and play up to their potential. These selections were based on recent performance, number of returning starters (according to Phil Steele) and the teams they must face in my composite preseason Top 25.
Of course, more than just these 10 teams will win at least 10 games this fall. But these are the 10 safest bets on the board heading into the 2016 season. Give us your own in the comments below.
Alabama
1 of 10
Last year's record: 14-1
Returning starters: 11 (6 offense, 5 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. USC (neutral site), at Ole Miss, at Tennessee, at LSU
This is the great constant in college football—Alabama is going to win at least 10 games. The Crimson Tide have hit this benchmark every year since 2008. This sport is unpredictable for the most part, but a program built on national titles and No. 1 recruiting classes is as consistent as it gets.
So even though Alabama has to find another starting quarterback (again) and replace several key players from its elite defense (again), reaching the 10-win mark shouldn't be any major issue for the defending national champions. In fact, Alabama might be in a better position than usual heading into a season of unknowns.
Top pass-rusher Jonathan Allen will be back to lead a defense that is now strong in the secondary instead of shaky. The new starting quarterback has both Calvin Ridley and O.J. Howard in his arsenal, along with dominant left tackle Cam Robinson. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin is now a seasoned member of the Alabama coaching staff.
The schedule won't be a cakewalk, as Alabama must face USC, Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU all away from home. But no team in college football is better prepared to handle roster turnover—and an early-season disappointment—than Alabama under Nick Saban. Don't overthink this.
Baylor
2 of 10
Last year's record: 10-3
Returning starters: 10 (5 offense, 5 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Oklahoma State, vs. TCU, at Oklahoma
Baylor had to wait until its bowl game to pick up its 10th win of the 2015 season, when it used a prehistoric-looking offense and still managed to shatter postseason records against a team that was once a College Football Playoff contender.
The Bears must rebuild the bulk of both lines this season, but there's a confidence in Art Briles' team to keep putting up truckloads of yards and points thanks to the return of quarterback Seth Russell and four running backs who combined for nearly 3,500 rushing yards last year. A mostly intact secondary is also an underrated plus for Baylor in 2016, especially in the pass-happy Big 12.
Baylor has won 10 games in four of the last five years, and the schedule once again sets up well for another run at double digits in 2016. Chris Low of ESPN.com named Baylor the team with the weakest nonconference schedule in the entire country. Two of the other "big three" in the Big 12 must come to Waco this season, and the major conference tests are spread out evenly on the slate.
Briles' program will have the ability to ease into life with a new look in the trenches, and the offense should be firing on all cylinders by the time a tough opponent comes its way in 2016.
Clemson
3 of 10
Last year's record: 14-1
Returning starters: 12 (8 offense, 4 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Louisville, at Florida State
Last year, Clemson had a couple of huge question marks heading into the season. Could Deshaun Watson stay healthy? How would the defense respond after losing a lot of talent?
Dabo Swinney's team answered those questions with exclamation points, taking advantage of a home-friendly schedule to win 14 straight before falling to Alabama in a national title classic. This year, all the pieces are there for Clemson and then some—the schedule is easier outside of a trip to Florida State, the defense has a couple of cornerstones returning, and the offense should be devastating.
"Here's the reality for Clemson: In the majority of its games in 2016, an average defense—even a 'meh' performance on this side of the ball—will suffice," Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer wrote this week. "With just about every key piece of the offense returning—headlined by quarterback Deshaun Waston—it will bury most opponents in points without issue."
More than half of Clemson's 11 regular-season FBS opponents didn't make it to a bowl game last season. Louisville and Florida State will be tough tests, but the rest of the slate sets up perfectly for another run toward a championship. Ten wins should be the floor for Clemson, even with just four returning starters on a Brent Venables defense.
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Florida State
4 of 10
Last year's record: 10-3
Returning starters: 17 (11 offense, 6 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Ole Miss, at Louisville, vs. North Carolina, at Miami, vs. Clemson
Last year, Florida State was "rebuilding" and still won 10 regular-season games. The Seminoles fell to a Clemson team that only lost in the national title game, and they lost a bizarre game against Georgia Tech thanks to one of the wildest plays in college football history.
But Jimbo Fisher still got to 10 wins before bowl season, and he's reached that mark in five of his six seasons as the Florida State head coach. With the amount of talent coming back for 2016—including every single starter on the offense—there's a clear path to 10 more wins this fall.
Dalvin Cook is one of the nation's best running backs, and he'll now be playing behind an experienced offensive line. The defense has a good assortment of weapons, including Demarcus Walker, Josh Sweat and football-playing missile Derwin James. And, as the case always is with Florida State, there are a number of highly touted freshmen from another top-five recruiting class who could thrive in year one.
There are plenty of landmines on the schedule, but FSU only has to go outside of its home state to play a preseason Top 25 team once, when it faces Louisville in Week 3. Although this is one of the toughest schedules for a national title contender, the 10-win consistency under Fisher and the number of returning starters make the Seminoles a good lock.
Houston
5 of 10
Last year's record: 13-1
Returning starters: 11 (5 offense, 6 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Oklahoma, vs. Louisville
All eyes will be on Houston this year after it nearly went undefeated in Tom Herman's first season. The former Ohio State offensive coordinator is clearly building something great in Houston, and 2016 is where we'll see if the Cougars can take the next step.
The offense needs new playmakers to fill in the gaps, but it still has one of the nation's best touchdown machines in dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and an experienced line. While the defense must replace the likes of Elandon Roberts and William Jackson, there's a sense that the stingy unit—bolstered by the arrival of top-10 recruit Ed Oliver—needs to do "just enough" in order for the Cougars to succeed.
Houston's top two opponents this season, Oklahoma and Louisville, must come to its hometown in 2016. Both will be tough tests, but the Cougars have already proved they can knock off the big names, and they upset Louisville away from home last year. In conference play, the big AAC names of Memphis and Navy are having to reload in a big way.
The Cougars have the confidence and the momentum to knock off at least one of their big Power Five opponents in 2016. But even if they don't claim either scalp, they have more than enough firepower to run the table again in the AAC.
Iowa
6 of 10
Last year's record: 12-2
Returning starters: 12 (5 offense, 7 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Michigan
After a close loss to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game and then a Rose Bowl beatdown at the hands of Stanford, there's probably some uneasiness across the country about the Iowa Hawkeyes. While those doubts are understandable, the outlook for Iowa in 2016 looks awfully similar to how it did in 2015.
Iowa returns more starters in 2016 than it has to replace, and the ball-control offense should be in great shape with quarterback C.J. Beathard and a deep crop of running backs still on campus. The defense can rely on the best defensive back in college football, Desmond King, and several tackle machines across the front seven.
Most importantly, the schedule gods have smiled upon Kirk Ferentz once again. The toughest nonconference game will be against FCS dynasty North Dakota State. The Hawkeyes had to pick up Michigan and Penn State in cross-divisional play, but their toughest Big Ten opponents all have to come to Iowa City.
There's a chance Iowa takes a step back in overall quality this year. However, that shouldn't take the Hawkeyes back to the middle-of-the-road days. Even if it can't pull off a win over a higher-ranked team, Iowa should be favored in the vast majority of its matchups this season, and it knows what it takes to reach double digits again.
Michigan
7 of 10
Last year's record: 10-3
Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: at Michigan State, at Iowa, at Ohio State
The Big Ten East is shaping up to be a three-way demolition derby among Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State. The early advantage for 2016, though, will belong to the team that went 0-2 against its rivals last season—the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan has a sizable experience advantage, with the bulk of the offensive playmakers and linemen coming back for another year under Jim Harbaugh. Defensively, the Wolverines should be ferocious up front, and the back seven will get a boost from shutdown corner Jourdan Lewis and do-it-all playmaker Jabrill Peppers—who could fill a major void at linebacker this fall.
The schedule is back-loaded, with Michigan having to face its two big division rivals and defending Big Ten West champion Iowa away from home in the regular season's final five weeks. However, the new pieces at quarterback and linebacker will be able to settle in thanks to an easy front half of the schedule that includes Hawaii, UCF and Colorado.
The Wolverines already have plenty of momentum after a 10-win season under Harbaugh in 2015 and a strong recruiting finish, and they'll have plenty of chances to get more in their first seven games. By the time they hit their big road tests, the newcomers should be clicking with the rest of this experienced squad.
North Carolina
8 of 10
Last year's record: 11-3
Returning starters: 14 (7 offense, 7 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: vs. Georgia, at Florida State, at Miami
North Carolina isn't going to sneak up on anyone this year after making a run all the way to the ACC Championship Game, where it pushed Clemson to the brink of a playoff-shifting upset. With plenty of experience back from last year's squad, the Tar Heels are in great position to do it all again in 2016.
Like Baylor and Clemson, North Carolina will be led by the explosive talent of its offense, which averaged more yards per game than anyone else in the country in 2015. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky, one of the new starters, might be a better fit in this offense than Marquise Williams. Big-play running back Elijah Hood, three of its top four receivers and most of its offensive line are also back.
Gene Chizik worked wonders for the UNC defense in year one, and he has a lot of veterans to work with in year two. If the defense can continue to put enough distance between opponents and the uptempo offense, there are plenty of opportunities for big wins on the schedule.
North Carolina plays two FCS teams again this year and avoids Clemson and Louisville from the Atlantic. In order to get to 10 wins, the Heels need to knock off either Georgia or Miami—who will both be ranked lower than them to start the season—and avoid any major letdowns. That's an ideal setup for double-digit victories.
San Diego State
9 of 10
Last year's record: 11-3
Returning starters: 13 (7 offense, 6 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: None
San Diego State had perhaps the quietest double digit-win season in college football last season. While Boise State had a subpar season by its lofty standards, the Aztecs swooped in and took home the Mountain West championship, along with a Hawaii Bowl rout of Cincinnati.
This year, Rocky Long's Aztecs return most of their starters on both sides of the ball, including the hard-running Donnel Pumphrey. SDSU needs a new quarterback, but it can rely on Pumphrey's talents and most of its top receivers from last season. Defensively, Alex Barrett, Calvin Munson and Damontae Kazee are all game-changers, and there isn't a single positional unit that isn't bringing back a leader.
SDSU's lone losses last season all came in a row, and the nonconference outlook should be better in 2016. The Aztecs host a Pac-12 program in California that will be replacing almost everyone of note on offense and ranked 102nd nationally in yards allowed per play last year. Road games against South Alabama and Northern Illinois are both winnable, too.
In Mountain West play, San Diego State avoids Boise State, and most of its tougher games are at home this year. Its four MWC road opponents only combined for 18 wins last season. If you're looking for a Group of Five team that could make some noise in the New Year's Six race outside of the usual suspects, SDSU is the pick.
Tennessee
10 of 10
Last year's record: 9-4
Returning starters: 17 (9 offense, 8 defense)
Games vs. projected Top 25: at Georgia, vs. Alabama
Tennessee's big breakout season didn't exactly come in 2015, but the Volunteers still set themselves up for a fantastic 2016 with how they closed things out. The depth chart is filled with experience, and the schedule makes a 10-win campaign look well within reason in Knoxville.
Quarterback Joshua Dobbs and the one-two rushing punch of Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara should be one of the best backfields in the entire country this fall. Defensive end Derek Barnett, stat-sheet-stuffing linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and special teams standout Evan Berry should be even bigger stars in new coordinator Bob Shoop's defense.
The front half of the schedule won't be easy, but Tennessee will play five of its first seven games inside its state borders. If the Volunteers survive the four-game stretch of Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M and Alabama without taking more than a couple of losses, look out. None of UT's final four SEC opponents went bowling last year, and it also faces an FCS school in Tennessee Tech.
Of course, there will always be doubt surrounding a Tennessee team that just hasn't gotten over the hump yet. But the SEC East is the Volunteers' for the taking thanks to a loaded roster and a favorable schedule. Jones' team has improved by two wins each season, and following that pattern again in 2016 wouldn't be a surprise from these Vols.
Recruit rankings courtesy of 247Sports.
Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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