Tennessee Football: Ranking the Hardest Games of the 2016 Schedule
After three years of rebuilding and many more taking lumps during a four-coach decade that saw some of the darkest days in Tennessee football history, the Volunteers should be the aggressor in 2016.
With 17 returning starters, a slew of talented playmakers on offense and defense and a run-oriented system with experienced players up and down the depth chart, it could be a big season for UT.
Catapulting off a 9-4 season that included six consecutive victories to end the season and a 45-6 exclamation point domination of Northwestern in the Outback Bowl, expectations are high. But with an offseason that has included tons of negative off-the-field headlines, can the Vols avoid the distractions?
Today, spring practice kicks off on coach Butch Jones' fourth season in Knoxville. How focused the players are in the next couple of months may go a long way in showing whether they'll be affected by the ongoing Title IX civil suit that—according to the Associated Press, via the News-Sentinel—doesn't look to be going away anytime soon.
"There's a lot of distractions outside, a lot of misrepresentations going on outside that we can't control," senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs recently told GoVols247's Wes Rucker. "We can't read into that. We can't get bothered by that. We just have to focus on what we can control, and get better this winter, get better this offseason and prepare for spring ball."
All that said, Tennessee looks stout on the field. And, for the first time in several years, the Vols' schedule doesn't look so daunting. There's no Oregon or Oklahoma looming out of conference. Instead, UT gets a transitioning Virginia Tech in the "Battle at Bristol" early in the season.
Also, Alabama and Florida are at home, Georgia likely will be breaking in a new quarterback and coach, South Carolina and Missouri have new coaches and UT's West draw, Texas A&M, had all kinds of troubles last year.
Let's rank the Vols' toughest games in the upcoming '16 season.
12. Tennessee Tech, Nov. 5
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Much like the North Texas game was in 2015, the Vols will get a game week late in the year that's essentially a bye when Football Championship Subdivision team Tennessee Tech comes to Knoxville.
By then, all the Vols' most difficult tests will be completed. It'll be a week to get a much-needed break to rest and heal up players before the Missouri, Kentucky and Vanderbilt games to close the season.
The nearby Golden Eagles will make the 90-minute drive up Interstate 40 to take on the Vols under a new coach. Former Temple offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield replaces Watson Brown, who retired after a long career.
Satterfield inherits an offense that has 6'4" senior quarterback Jared Davis at the helm and is led by star receiver Brock McCoin, who finished 2015 with more than 700 receiving yards.
The bad news for the Eagles is Tennessee can sleepwalk through this one, if needed. They allowed 35.9 points per game a season ago, and that doesn't bode well against Dobbs, Jalen Hurd, Alvin Kamara and Co.
UT will either get to pad the stats or let the backups play a lot. Most importantly, the Vols will get to relax for another near-bye week before the stretch run after a difficult gauntlet of Florida, at Georgia, Alabama, at Texas A&M and a road trip to South Carolina.
11. Ohio, Sept. 17
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While there aren't any juggernauts on Tennessee's out-of-conference schedule, there are some pretty darn good low-level teams.
One of those is Ohio, UT's second consecutive Mid-American Conference opponent in as many years. The Bobcats had a decent 8-5 season a year ago that ended in heartbreak.
After a shocking 26-21 win at Northern Illinois to close the season, coach Frank Solich's team held a commanding 24-7 lead over Appalachian State in the fourth quarter of the Camellia Bowl before collapsing and losing 31-29 on a 23-yard Zach Matics field goal as time expired.
Now, the Bobcats will move on without Derrius Vick at quarterback, which means last year's part-time starter J.D. Sprague will hold the reins of the offense all the time. The 6'1", 200-pound returning senior looked good at times a year ago, tossing seven touchdowns against just three interceptions. He also ran for 225 yards.
He'll have a workhorse running back in A.J. Ouellette to go along with Dorian Brown. Rising senior receiver Sebastian Smith has the ability to be one of the biggest playmakers in the MAC.
Despite the returning offensive stars, having a chance against UT will require a lot better defense than what the Bobcats played a season ago, specifically in a three-game, late-season stretch. In games against Western Michigan, Buffalo and Bowling Green (all losses), they allowed 49, 41 and 62 points.
There's no way that Ohio has the horses to hang with the Vols. So, while it'll be a team that has a chance to have a pretty good record, the Bobcats will likely lose by an even more lopsided score than Bowling Green did against UT a season ago.
10. at Vanderbilt, Nov. 26
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You can often throw the records out the window when Vanderbilt takes on Tennessee. Yes, the Vols normally win, but it's normally a hard-fought game because the Commodores hate UT so much, and they rarely have anything to play for that late in the year.
That close game didn't occur last season, however.
Tennessee demoralized coach Derek Mason's team 53-28 to steamroll its way into a strong bowl bid. Though the Vols defense didn't exactly rise to the occasion, their offense took care of things.
It's hard to envision the Commodores making any noise against UT this year either, especially considering some of the strong players they lost off their defense.
Offensively, VU does return a pair of potential playmakers.
Running back Ralph Webb was named a third-team All-SEC performer by Phil Steele, and he concluded his '15 season setting a VU sophomore record with 1,152 rushing yards, which was the second-highest total in team history. He was the real deal, averaging 111.6 yards in his final five SEC games.
Also, though Kyle Shurmur didn't light up the box scores a season ago, the then-freshman quarterback, who is the son of Minnesota Vikings tight ends coach and former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, did have a solid first year in Nashville.
As a sophomore, he'll probably improve even more.
All that said, there are just too many holes on Mason's team for it to consistently compete with a Tennessee team with all this depth and talent. It could be close for a little while, but the Vols shouldn't have much trouble with the 'Dores yet again.
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9. Appalachian State, Sept. 3
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How odd is it that Tennessee will play both Camellia Bowl participants from a season ago?
The Vols open the season with an upstart Appalachian State team that has the potential to be one of the top small-conference teams in the nation. The Mountaineers certainly were a season ago, going 11-2 under favorite son Scott Satterfield, becoming the first Sun Belt Conference team to win 11 games in a season.
They're loaded for '16, too.
You may think it's a stretch to put the Mountaineers over Vanderbilt, but read the next few paragraphs first. They finished 57th in the final ESPN.com power index last year to VU's 74th.
Simply put, they should be a better football team than the Commodores.
While there are several players they must replace from a potent offense, the Mountaineers do return the Sun Belt freshman of the year, quarterback Taylor Lamb. They also return 1,000-yard rusher Marcus Cox, who is one of the best runners you've never heard of.
Not only that, but App also returns nine starters from a defense that finished the season ranked 11th overall nationally in total defense. Surprisingly, the Mountaineers are already done with their "spring" practice weeks before spring, and linebacker Eric Boggs was happy with the defensive intensity.
"We had a lot of depth that has improved a lot of younger guys, the early enrollees have done a good job. As a defense, guys are starting to compete," he told the Winston-Salem Journal's Brant Wilkerson-New. "There's always improvement to be made and we've got a lot of veterans on the team. The biggest thing is developing our leadership and taking these younger guys under our wing."
App did lose 41-10 to eventual national championship runner-up Clemson, which may give you at least a little bit of what to expect against a major-conference opponent. But the Vols have a lot to prove before they can be mentioned with the Tigers.
The season's first game is going to provide a very interesting test for the Vols that may be the perfect gauge for the rest of the year.
8. Kentucky, Nov. 12
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Mark Stoops has recruited very well for Kentucky since arriving three seasons ago, but that talent is going to have to equal wins before long.
That's why Stoops overhauled the UK staff this past offseason, firing offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson and hiring co-offensive coordinators Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw away from Cincinnati coach Tommy Tuberville's staff.
That duo ran a "multiple pro-style offense," according to the Lexington Herald-Leader's Jennifer Smith.
Can they turn things around in Lexington after yet another 5-7 season? No matter how good early-season UK looks the past couple of years, the Wildcats just can't seem to overcome a tough late-season schedule to get into a bowl game.
With Patrick Towles out of the picture after transferring to Boston College, it's all Drew Barker's show for the Cats. He'll try to team with running back Stanley "Boom" Williams to give the Wildcats a dynamic 1-2 offensive punch.
But offense hasn't been the problem recently for UK against the Vols. They can't stop Tennessee's offense.
Last year, an early lead evaporated with a third-quarter onslaught by the Vols that turned into a 52-21 laugher at Commonwealth Stadium. The Wildcats' last trip to Neyland Stadium wasn't any better as Tennessee waltzed them, 50-16.
So, returning to Knoxville and coming out with a win won't be an easy task.
With all the mid-level talent Stoops has recruited to Kentucky, it has to get a little bit of a nod over Vanderbilt and Appalachian State on paper, but it would be difficult seeing any of those teams upset the Vols.
7. Missouri, Nov. 19
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Missouri has experienced its own bit of offseason uncertainty following a forgettable 2015 season that saw the Tigers go 1-7 in SEC play.
Much-maligned quarterback Maty Mauk was booted off the team after getting suspended three times in four months, according to the Kansas City Star's Tod Palmer. This was after new coach Barry Odom allowed him to return to the Tigers, and he was expected to battle Drew Lock for the starting spot.
Instead, the '16 Mizzou offense appears to be all Lock's now, and there is plenty of question marks on the rest of the unit after Russell Hansbrough has exhausted his eligibility. Ish Witter will probably get the load of carries, but asking where the offense will come from is probably not a poor question.
To say the Tigers offense a year ago was putrid would be an understatement. They were 128th nationally, averaging just 13.6 points per game, and they were equally poor across the board. The Tigers finished 114th in passing yardage and 120th in rushing yardage.
When you figure all that, it's amazing they still won five games. The reason is because of Odom's defense, which could be just as strong in '16.
Yes, linebacker Kentrell Brothers is gone to the NFL, but the front four will be really, really strong, if healthy.
Seniors Josh Augusta and Rickey Hatley, as well as freshman All-American Terry Beckner Jr., could be joined by difference-maker Harold Brantley, if he can return from missing the entire '15 season after a car wreck. At end, there's All-SEC performer Charles Harris and freshman All-American Walter Brady.
D-Line U is alive and well in Columbia.
But can the Tigers travel to Knoxville and knock off the Vols? They've got the potential to, but they're going to have to find some offense along the way, or it's difficult to see that happening.
6. at South Carolina, Oct. 29
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A transitional season and a tough schedule wound up being the undoing of South Carolina a season ago as Steve Spurrier retired midseason, giving way to interim coach Shawn Elliott. A difficult year just went from bad to worse.
Still, with all that time to hire a coach, the Gamecocks wound up with Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp, who failed famously as head coach at Florida.
It was a puzzling hire, to say the least.
But one thing Muschamp did accomplish in Gainesville was beating Tennessee every time he played the Vols. Though UT is now on a three-game winning streak against the Gamecocks, all three have been extremely close.
Three years ago, UT gave Jones a bit of a signature victory when a last-second Michael Palardy field goal resulted in a Vols win. Two seasons ago, Dobbs' breakout party culminated with a resounding comeback overtime win in Columbia.
Then, last year, with the Vols expected to handle a reeling Carolina team, Perry Orth and Co. all but upset the Vols in Knoxville.
The former walk-on quarterback surged in the second half and drove the Gamecocks for what would have a go-ahead touchdown before UT nickelback Malik Foreman made one of the plays of the year, stripping the ball from tight end Jerell Adams inside the 20-yard line. Jalen Reeves-Maybin recovered, and UT escaped, 27-24.
"He found a way to come up and really make a game-winning turnover," Jones said after that game. "It was great to see Malik make that play, and then obviously us recovering the fumble."
UT had been ahead 17-0 before yet another second-half collapse.
What does all that tell you? Expect yet another close game when UT heads to Carolina this year. Despite Jones having the Gamecocks' number, the games are always is ulcer-inducera.
5. Virginia Tech (Battle at Bristol), Sept. 10
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For more than a decade, there have been rumors of Tennessee and Virginia Tech meeting at Bristol Motor Speedway—at a facility right smack-dab in between Knoxville and Blacksburg, Virginia.
Now, later this year, all those years of wondering why such a natural out-of-conference rivalry game hasn't happened yet can end. The Vols and Hokies will play in front of what figures to be the largest crowd ever to watch a college football game in person in what is dubbed "the Battle at Bristol."
It'll be the teams' first meeting since Frank Beamer's Hokies walloped Lane Kiffin's Vols in the 2009 Chick-fil-A Bowl. But neither of those coaches are with their respective programs any longer.
Everybody knows UT is led by Jones these days, as the Vols finally found somebody who could lead them out of the dark ages of the program. Meanwhile, longtime Hokies head man Beamer finally called it quits after last season. Virginia Tech wound up hiring Memphis head coach Justin Fuente to lead the Hokies.
Fuente is a really good young coach who should get the Hokies back to their winning ways, but it would be a surprise for them to make a lot of noise this year. They lost so many important players at key positions, and didn't do particularly well recruiting, either.
With all that said, one huge thing Fuente was able to do is retain veteran defensive coordinator Bud Foster, who is capable of game-planning against anybody in the nation and is sure to have a blitz-happy scheme in place to pressure Dobbs and make things miserable for the Vols.
Virginia Tech gets up for big games, no matter how out-manned it has been talent-wise in recent years. So, the Vols would be unwise to overlook them. The Vols should have the upper hand, but in an intense geographical rivalry on such a big stage, things could get very interesting.
It'll be one of those games that's going to be squarely in the national spotlight on that day.
4. at Texas A&M, Oct. 8
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The last time Tennessee ran into quarterback Trevor Knight, he dissected the Vols' 2014 defense for 308 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the Sooners upended UT 34-10 in Norman.
Things will be much different this time around.
Not only should the Vols be much improved defensively with all the talent Jones has brought in and the experience that has been gained by playing so many underclassmen the past two years, Knight also traded in his crimson for maroon.
After Texas A&M coach Kevin Sumlin lost both blue-chip quarterbacks he'd recruited the past couple years (Kyler Murray to Oklahoma and Kyle Allen to Houston), he needed somebody (anybody?) to lead the Aggies into the new year.
Thankfully for him, Knight was looking for less-choppy waters after he lost his job to former Texas Tech transfer Baker Mayfield, who went out last year and had a fantastic season in leading the Sooners to the College Football Playoff.
If you can keep up with all the quarterback transfers out west, the bottom line is the Vols likely will be going up against Knight again this year when they make their first trip to College Station. They'll also get an up-close-and-personal look at one of the nation's top defenders in end Myles Garrett.
Considering all the talent Sumlin has brought to A&M the past few years, the Vols won't be able to overlook the Aggies in the least. But as loaded as the SEC West is, getting an A&M team that hasn't exactly been on firm footing the past couple years isn't the worst draw.
That game has the potential to be one of the Vols' most difficult tests of the year, especially if Knight comes in and handles the offense right off the bat. But, until they prove it on the field, the Aggies can't supplant the difficulty of UT's three biggest rivals.
3. at Georgia, Oct. 1
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It's going to be very strange to look over to the Georgia sideline and not see longtime staple Mark Richt, who was let go after a 10-win season and landed on his feet at alma mater Miami.
Replacing him is former Bulldogs defensive back and Alabama defensive coordinator Kirby Smart, who walks into a veritable gold mine for his first head coaching gig.
Georgia is one of the easiest places in the nation to recruit to because of the hotbed of talent it sits upon, and Richt's regime did very well stockpiling talent. Smart learned from the best in recruiting at Alabama with coach Nick Saban, and he put the finishing touches on a very good class this cycle.
Now comes the hard part.
He has to coach a team that has a whole lot of question marks entering into the season.
It all starts at quarterback where UGA was horrid a season ago. Enter 5-star Jacob Eason, the nation's second-ranked pro-style quarterback and a prodigy who is expected to step right in and perhaps start immediately in what has been a tenuous position since Aaron Murray left.
Quarterback may be the biggest question, but that isn't where the biggest worry lies. That would be whether Nick Chubb will ever be NICK CHUBB! again following a gruesome injury at Neyland Stadium last year when he tore knee ligaments and was lost for the season.
Sony Michel filled in admirably in his stead, but he's no Chubb. Who is? The Bulldogs need him to return to his workhorse, Heisman Trophy form. If he does, the Bulldogs will be firmly in the mix for the SEC East again.
There are also several holes to fill on defense with departed playmakers, but with all the talent on the sideline, the Bulldogs should be able to do that. Also, Smart is used to being at the helm of championship-caliber defenses from his time in Tuscaloosa.
So, UGA has some very real concerns in '16, but the Bulldogs also have plenty of puzzle pieces to fit together and form a solid season. No matter who wins the game against the Vols, it's always a close one.
Don't expect 2016's matchup at Sanford Stadium to be any different.
2. Florida, Sept. 24
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By now, the Vols should be searching for Gator-shaped voodoo dolls.
The only logical answer is they're simply cursed against Florida. No matter who coaches UF, no matter who plays where or who the more talented team is, Tennessee just can't beat its SEC East nemesis.
Last year, the Vols surged to a 12-point lead when Jones inexplicably elected to try an extra point to go ahead by 13 rather than go for two to get the more logical 14-point advantage in the fourth quarter. That opened the door for another patented, historic Vols collapse.
After Florida closed the gap to six, former UT defensive coordinator John Jancek called a quarterback spy on a 4th-and-14 play. Not only did the Gators convert yet another fourth down, then-quarterback Will Grier hit Antonio Callaway for a 63-yard touchdown grab to surge ahead 28-27.
Aaron Medley missed a 55-yard field goal that was long enough as time expired, and the Vols dropped their 11th-consecutive game against a Florida team that was 5-of-5 on fourth-down conversions.
"They played their hearts out for the Gators, and all the Gator fans, and all the Gators that played before them," coach Jim McElwain told the Orlando Sentinel's Edgar Thompson. "I think, down deep, you just don't lose to Tennessee, and they didn't. I don't know if we deserved it or not, but I sure like it this way than the other way. It was pretty cool, wasn't it?"
Though the Gators went on to play for the SEC championship, they lost a lot of talent off a '15 team that was really struggling to find anything offensively at the end of the season.
The Gators have a ton of questions yet again, beginning at quarterback, where redshirt sophomore Luke Del Rio is expected to get the nod over talented freshman mid-term enrollee Feleipe Franks. If one of those guys wind up looking good, watch out.
The Vols return much more talent than McElwain's team, and they get their hated foes back in Neyland Stadium again.
The good news for UT is the last time it beat Florida back in 2004, it was at home. The bad news is there are 11-year-olds around the nation who were only glimmers in their parents' eyes the last time that actually happened.
So, say what you will about how much talent the Vols have and how this should be the year. They've got to beat Florida before anybody takes them seriously as a legit SEC contender.
1. Alabama, Oct. 15
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Anytime you have the defending national champion on your schedule, it has to be the top test of difficulty, right? Throw in the fact that we're talking about Tennessee and Alabama, one of the biggest rivalries in college football history.
Add to the equation the Crimson Tide are on a nine-game winning streak against UT, and that painful little tidbit makes this game even more in doubt.
The Vols have closed the gap with the nation's top team. Last year, Tennessee held a fourth-quarter advantage before Bama put together a big-time drive led by quarterback Jacob Coker to take a late lead. Then, outside linebacker Ryan Anderson forced Dobbs into a sack-fumble to secure a 19-14 win.
Alabama went on to win the national championship; the Vols never lost again, reeling off six straight wins to close the year.
Both teams could be really stout again in '16.
Though Alabama fills the NFL draft with crimson-clad talent each year, all Saban does is recruit top-ranked classes. So, the Tide will be deep and strong yet again. Coker is gone, but several quarterbacks will battle for the job, including former top recruit Blake Barnett.
Even though Derrick Henry is gone, Bo Scarborough and Damien Harris are more than capable. They've got a stable of star defenders, led by a group of future pro defensive backs, and you can add Bowling Green receiver transfer Gehrig Dieter to a group that already includes one of the nation's top talents in Calvin Ridley.
Alabama is loaded everywhere, and so are the Vols.
It would be the biggest win of Jones' career if the Vols can knock off their hated rival when they come in to Neyland Stadium on the third Saturday in October. But, until they do, Bama will remain king in this series, the SEC and the country.
All quotes and information gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. All recruiting information gathered from 247Sports unless otherwise noted. All stats gathered at UTSports.com unless otherwise noted.
Brad Shepard covers SEC football and is the Tennessee lead writer for Bleacher Report. Follow Brad on Twitter @Brad_Shepard.
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