1 Game Every College Football Hot-Seat Coach Must Win in 2016
The 2016 college football season is still six months away, but several head coaches across the country are already feeling the huge pressure of the upcoming campaign.
These are the coaches on the infamous "hot seat"—the ones who need to turn things around in 2016, or else they might be forced to look for another job once the coaching carousel starts back up again.
While coaches need more than just one win per season to save their jobs, there's no denying that some victories have more influence on their security than others.
Here are 10 Power Five head coaches who will be on varying temperatures of the hot seat in 2016 and the one turning-point game they each must win for their future. These games have been chosen by timing on the schedule, past trends in the coaches' tenures and the expectations placed on them heading into the season.
Have any more must-win games for these coaches on the hot seat? Sound off in the comments below.
Auburn's Gus Malzahn
1 of 10
Nov. 12 at Georgia
Gus Malzahn's seat might not be scalding just yet at Auburn, but he has gone 15-11—with a 6-10 mark in the SEC—in the two seasons after his dream debut campaign that finished at the national title game. Auburn is recruiting at a top-10 level but hasn't lived up to big-time hype recently in a cutthroat SEC West.
The prevailing thought is that Malzahn needs an 8-4 or 9-3 record in 2016 to save his job, considering the overall strength of his team's schedule. But it needs to be the right eight or nine wins. His Tigers can't take big losses to their top rivals and expect the fans and those in charge to keep waiting for improvement.
Respectable losses to projected Top 10 teams Clemson, LSU and Alabama would be understandable, but Malzahn could definitely use a win against rival Georgia in 2016. The Bulldogs have taken eight of the last 10 in the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry, with Auburn's only two wins coming in seasons in which it has competed for a national title.
A road win against a big-time rival late in the season would be a big boost for Malzahn, even if Auburn isn't able to hang with Alabama in Tuscaloosa two weeks later. On the flip side, losing once again to Georgia—and a first-time head coach in Kirby Smart—would be a big blow to Malzahn's job status.
Colorado's Mike MacIntyre
2 of 10
Nov. 26 vs. Utah
Colorado is being patient with Mike MacIntyre, and for good reason. His Buffaloes play in one of the most competitive divisions in the entire country. But if Colorado doesn't show progress in his fourth season, the school might look to cut ties.
"The Colorado Buffaloes and Mike MacIntyre will determine the course of their season based on well they can handle their home games," Avinash Kunnath of Pacific Takes wrote. "If they can't, another losing season awaits, and probably a very hot seat for Mac comes by as well."
MacIntyre's team should be able to pick up a home victory against Oregon State, and the rest of the conference home slate has potential for an upset or two. The one that could save MacIntyre's job is the finale against Utah, a team that has won four straight against Colorado—all by single possessions.
Colorado has proved it can compete with Utah, and getting over the hump with a late November win against a conference rival would be massive for MacIntyre. His Buffaloes could at least double their Pac-12 win total under him and be in bowl-game range with a victory here.
Kentucky's Mark Stoops
3 of 10
Oct. 22 vs. Mississippi State
Mark Stoops has made Kentucky more relevant on the recruiting trail, but his last two seasons with the Wildcats have ended in frustration, as second-half collapses prevented them from playing in a bowl game. While a big buyout is a boost to his job security, he needs to guide his program to take the next step soon.
The key for the Wildcats in 2016 is to prevent another second-half slump. They'll have opportunities to pick up wins in the first half of the season, and the Mississippi State matchup right after a bye week serves as the exact start to the second half.
In 2014 and 2015, the annual meeting with Mississippi State became the second loss in a long skid for the Wildcats. This year, Kentucky will have a bye week beforehand and home-field advantage—and it won't have to face Bulldogs quarterback Dak Prescott, who completed 71 percent of his passes and threw for 348 yards against the Wildcats last season.
Picking up its first win against cross-division rival Mississippi State since 2008 would provide great momentum for Stoops' team, which will have a few more good chances to pick up wins down the stretch. Another loss, though, could send the Wildcats spiraling again.
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Penn State's James Franklin
4 of 10
Nov. 5 vs. Iowa
James Franklin has gone 7-5 in his first two seasons at Penn State, and the pressure is starting to mount for him as the Nittany Lions head into 2016. He has two brand-new coordinators and will start a new quarterback in a season that needs to feature some progress for his sake.
Franklin hasn't been able to capture that signature win yet for the Nittany Lions, as they only beat one conference foe—Indiana—that went on to play in a bowl game last year. Picking up defending Big Ten West champion Iowa in cross-divisional play could be the perfect opportunity for Franklin's team.
Penn State should take care of business against Purdue the week before the Hawkeyes come to town. This will be the toughest road environment Iowa has to play in all season, and Penn State should play all of that up to its advantage inside Beaver Stadium.
Beating what will probably be a Big Ten title contender at home in November would be a huge boost for Franklin's team, which lost four straight to end 2015. That momentum should roll into winnable road games against Indiana and Rutgers before the finale against Michigan State. This would be a big win at just the right time for Franklin.
Purdue's Darrell Hazell
5 of 10
Oct. 1 at Maryland
Darrell Hazell is entering a crucial season at Purdue, as his buyout drops significantly on December 1, per Mike Carmin of the Indianapolis Star. What does that look like? For starters, more than just one win in Big Ten play, as Purdue has gone 1-7 against its conference foes in back-to-back seasons.
In Hazell's first three seasons with Purdue, the Boilermakers have opened up the Big Ten slate with Wisconsin, Iowa and Michigan State, respectively. This year, it opens with a Maryland team that will be in rebuilding mode under new head coach D.J. Durkin.
Purdue showed some real fight on the road last season, losing close ones to 10-win teams Marshall, Michigan State and Northwestern. The Boilermakers will have an experience advantage against the Terrapins—one they'll need to take full advantage of to pull off the win in College Park.
By getting off to a better start in the Big Ten schedule, Purdue will pick up steam right before a winnable road game against Illinois, which would already give Hazell his best-ever start in conference play. But if the team drops one of its better opportunities at a win, things could go south in a hurry.
Texas' Charlie Strong
6 of 10
Nov. 5 at Texas Tech
After missing a bowl game in 2015, the pressure is on for Charlie Strong to win now at Texas. He's addressed his team's offensive woes with the hiring of Sterlin Gilbert, and his staff picked up several huge offseason wins with a strong finish to the nation's No. 11 recruiting class at 247Sports.
November has the look of a make-or-break month for Strong, who may need eight or nine wins to save his job in 2016. After facing Baylor's high-powered offense at home to close October, the Longhorns travel to Texas Tech, which beat them 48-45 late last season.
Like Baylor, this will be a great test of Texas' new-look offense. Can they keep up the pace with the Red Raiders, who will look to sling the ball around with quarterback Patrick Mahomes? Getting revenge on an in-state rival away from home would be a tremendous shot in the arm for Texas down the stretch.
After Texas Tech, Texas will host West Virginia, visit lowly Kansas and host TCU. That's a favorable slate for catching fire heading into the postseason. But if Strong loses another one to an in-state rival such as Texas Tech, that'll be one more late strike against him with a program that might be ready to go after Houston head coach Tom Herman.
Texas A&M's Kevin Sumlin
7 of 10
Sept. 17 at Auburn
Texas A&M hasn't been able to keep up the momentum built by Johnny Manziel, and three of his successors at starting quarterback have transferred away from the program. Now, the pressure is on after second-half slumps ended Kevin Sumlin's last two seasons with the Aggies.
This year, Sumlin needs to worry about a first-half slump. Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote earlier this week that the month of September will be crucial for the SEC coaches on the hot seat. Sumlin's Texas A&M team will host a UCLA squad in transition and then face Auburn two weeks later.
"The Aggies have had success against Auburn on the Plains, but this game will take on a much different meaning," Sallee wrote. "It's a desperation game. It's the biggest SEC swing game of September that will not only open conference play for both teams but define the narrative for both teams."
While Malzahn will be able to ease the pressure on him at Auburn later in the year with a win over a big SEC rival, Sumlin doesn't quite have the same type of opportunity on the schedule. If the Aggies lose at home to UCLA to start the season, they can't afford to fall to 1-2, especially with a game against physical Arkansas on tap the next weekend.
Vanderbilt's Derek Mason
8 of 10
Oct. 8 at Kentucky
Derek Mason is in a tough spot at Vanderbilt, which reverted back to its doormat status in the SEC in his first couple of seasons. The potential is there for the Commodores to compete for a bowl berth in 2016, but that will mean picking up at least a couple of wins away from home.
Vanderbilt knocked off Kentucky at home last season, and it will need to do that again in order to push toward those magic six wins. This time, the victory will have to come on the road, where Vanderbilt has only beaten Middle Tennessee State under Mason.
The Commodores face Kentucky between matchups against Florida and Georgia, and they'll also have to face stronger opponents at home in Ole Miss and Tennessee later in the season. If Vanderbilt has truly improved in 2016, it must grab wins like this one away from Nashville.
Mason might not have to get to 6-6 to keep his job at Vanderbilt, but he needs to at least come close. With tough opponents up and down the schedule, his Commodores definitely need to cash in on opportunities against teams they've already beaten in the comforts of their home stadium.
Wake Forest's Dave Clawson
9 of 10
Oct. 8 vs. Syracuse
Like MacIntyre at Colorado or Hazell at Purdue, there's a question of patience for Wake Forest as it enters the third season under Dave Clawson. After back-to-back 3-9 seasons, will the Demon Deacons wait much longer in a conference that loaded up on quality coaching hires this offseason?
One of those quality coaching hires, Dino Babers, will bring his Syracuse team to BB&T Field in the early part of October. It will be the ACC home opener for Wake Forest, which has only beaten conference foes Virginia Tech and Boston College under Clawson in two games that finished with a combined score of 9-3.
How Babers' Baylor-like offensive scheme will work in the first season with the Orange remains to be seen, but Clawson can't afford to let a first-year coach come into his home stadium and hand him an early loss. Wake Forest could challenge for a bowl berth this year just by taking care of business at home.
If the Demon Deacons let the Orange zoom right past them at home this October, things could get ugly quickly. The Demon Deacons have to face five bowl teams—including Florida State and Louisville—on the road, so picking up these wins in Winston-Salem is paramount to Clawson's future.
West Virginia's Dana Holgorsen
10 of 10
Oct. 1 vs. Kansas State
Dana Holgorsen is back for another campaign at West Virginia after posting a third losing Big 12 record in the last four seasons with the Mountaineers. Last year, WVU had to travel to Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU in the span of four weeks, which would have been tough for any team.
This year, West Virginia gets all three of those teams at home, and the tests are more evenly spread out through the conference schedule. But there's another home matchup Holgorsen needs his team to take full advantage of—the Big 12 opener against Kansas State.
The Wildcats have beaten the Mountaineers in back-to-back close games, and they prevented West Virginia from finishing the season on what would have been a six-game winning streak last year. West Virginia hasn't won its Big 12 opener since its first season in the conference. Getting over that hump against Kansas State will be a psychological boost heading into a bye week and the start of eight straight games.
If West Virginia gets out to another slow start in the conference, Holgorsen's seat will do nothing but heat up even more throughout the months of October and November. He needs to show this year will be different than his last few with a strong start to Big 12 play.
Justin Ferguson is a National College Football Analyst at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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