NFL Free Agency 2016: Ranking Top Available RBs

Running backs are making a comeback in the NFL. We aren't going to see $85 million contracts anytime soon, but free agents are getting good deals again after that horrific 2014 offseason that saw Toby Gerhart win the biggest prize—a three-year, $10.5 million contract.

This year, a handful of quality backs are hitting the market, along with some nice complementary options with upside.

Based on past performance, age and potential, let's take a look at the top 10 running backs set to hit free agency.

Honorable Mentions

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Tim Hightower (29), Chris Johnson (30) and even Steven Jackson (32) turned back the clock last season, but it wasn't enough to get them on the top 10 here.

While they certainly surprised the league, what are the chances they hold up at their ages going forward? 

You might wonder why Reggie Bush didn't make the top 10 here, and to that I would wonder if you have watched him play in recent years. He hasn't been much more than a name for some time now.

10. Khiry Robinson, New Orleans Saints

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
26	56	180	4	14	3.2	20	17	115	6.8	0

 

2015 Review

In reality, Tim Hightower was better than Khiry Robinson. The latter is younger—he is just 26, while Hightower will be 30 in May—and has more potential, though, which is why he squeaked in here at No. 10.

Robinson was stuck behind Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller before suffering a gruesome broken leg that ended his 2015 campaign. He managed to catch 17 passes for 115 yards in half a season's worth of third-string duty, though.

He wasn't particularly effective as a runner, averaging an abysmal 3.2 yards per carry. 

 

2016 Outlook

Robinson's injury was brutal, and he is still rehabbing his way back to form. Hopefully, he will make a full recovery and get back to pre-2015 form.

According to Pro Football Focus, he was the 16th-best rated running back in the league back in 2014 despite playing just 168 snaps.

 

Potential Suitors

The Saints can probably retain Robinson without much fuss if they want to—he is a restricted free agent, after all—but Ingram and Spiller have decent-sized contracts, and New Orleans isn't exactly flush with cap space.

Robinson won't be a lead back anywhere, but he could be a valuable horse in a running back stable. A ton of teams could use a solid role player at running back, so he could wind up just about anywhere.

Perhaps the Jacksonville Jaguars or Oakland Raiders will bolster their backfields with the cap space they have accumulated. The Chicago Bears have Jeremy Langford and Ka'Deem Carey, but Robinson could round out that backfield nicely as well. 

9. Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
24	207	863	7	72	4.2	35	24	111	4.6	0

 

2015 Review

What happened to Ronnie Hillman?

Given the opportunity of a lifetime, the fifth-year back couldn't muster more than 4.2 yards per carry—3.5 from Week 8 on—in a lumbering effort for a guy who should be quick.

Hillman got the starting job after starter C.J. Anderson stumbled out of the gate and fell injured, but Hillman gave it all back as the season wore on. 

 

2016 Outlook

Despite his poor second half last season, Hillman makes for a viable change-of-pace option. His numbers didn't really show it, but he is a decent third-down back option thanks to his pass-catching skills.

 

Potential Suitors

Hillman should have some interest on the open market despite his second-half woes last season. Assuming the Broncos don't want him back—not a given, especially because they kept giving him the ball despite his increasingly inefficient efforts last season.

The Tennessee Titans seem like a likely destination if Hillman gets away. They could use a complementary back who can catch like Hillman.

8. James Starks, Green Bay Packers

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
29	148	601	2	65	4.1	53	43	392	9.1	3

 

2015 Review

There were times James Starks looked like the truth in Green Bay last season, to the point where it seemed odd the Packers would even turn back to Eddie Lacy. Then, Starks would fumble the ball.

Starks buttered his bread as a pass-catcher for the Packers, and he occasionally carried the load with moderate success over the long haul. He looked great at times, but he wasn't trusted enough to get the starting job on a permanent basis.

 

2016 Outlook

If only Starks was a better pass-blocker or didn't have fumbling issues. 

Well, maybe those issues are overblown. He did leave the ball on the ground five times last season, but that was the same number of fumbles that he had the previous four years in the league. 

Starks should be a great third-down back in the right situation.

 

Potential Suitors

That situation could be back with the Packers, where he has developed a rapport with Lacy and carved out a great role.

Could Starks reprise his role for another contender? Perhaps the Carolina Panthers could use his services behind Jonathan Stewart, who has never been the picture of health. 

Or he could wind up in Tennessee, which is decidedly not a contender.

7. Alfred Morris, Washington

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
27	202	751	1	48	3.7	13	10	55	5.5	0

 

2015 Review

It has been a steady decline for Alfred Morris after he burst onto the scene as an unexpected rookie sensation out of the sixth round four years ago.

Last season was the worst of his career, as he saw rookie Matt Jones, Chris Thompson and even Pierre Thomas eat into his playing time. Morris averaged just 3.7 yards per carry and scored just one touchdown, by far the worst numbers of his career.

 

2016 Outlook

Morris is very much a one-trick pony in the NFL. He has never been a good pass-catcher, though he has had a moment or two in the league.

His limited skill set will be a drag on his draft stock, and he will likely be in a timeshare with someone on whichever team picks him up.

That said, Morris could thrive in the right situation, which would presumably include a zone-blocking scheme that suits him best.

 

Potential Suitors

There aren't a ton of teams that employ zone-blocking schemes in the NFL, and vacancies are limited as it is. Denver might be an ideal landing spot if it weren't for C.J. Anderson, though he is slated for restricted free agency too.

Another place where Morris might thrive is in Seattle, where the Seahawks have lost Marshawn Lynch to retirement. Morris has performed his best with Robert Griffin III running the read-option, and he would be in an even better situation with Russell Wilson. Thomas Rawls did an excellent job in relief of Lynch last season, though, and might have won the lead role in that offense.

Perhaps the Kansas City Chiefs will want someone to complement Jamaal Charles as he makes his way back from another season-ending knee injury. 

6. Bilal Powell, New York Jets

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
27	70	313	1	24	4.5	63	47	388	8.3	2

2015 Review

Where did Bilal Powell come from toward the end of last season? 

A perennial bit player, he looked fabulous in the second half of the season. He was instrumental in New York's playoff push, particularly because of his skills as a pass-catcher. If he wasn't injured for the final game of the year, the Jets might have actually been competitive on offense.

 

2016 Outlook

Despite last season's success, Powell is best suited in a complementary role. He is more of a third-down back than someone who can carry the load—he never got more than seven carries in a game despite how well he was playing in the second half of last season—though we could point to Dion Lewis as a similar back who thrived with a bigger piece of the offensive pie.

Of course, it helped Lewis that he signed on with a great offense.

 

Potential Suitors

New York should make a strong push to retain Powell, especially considering Chris Ivory is also a free agent. But should Powell get away, plenty of teams will covet his pass-catching ability.

If the Broncos let Hillman walk, Powell would make an excellent replacement and partner with Anderson. The Tennessee Titans are bereft of running back talent, particularly of the third-down variety. So are the Houston Texans, who don't have much beyond perennially hobbled Arian Foster.

5. Chris Ivory, New York Jets

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
27	247	1070	7	58	4.3	37	30	217	7.2	1

 

2015 Review

Chris Ivory had a career year, netting a Pro Bowl berth—though mostly because other backs declined their invitations or were otherwise indisposed—and topping 1,000 yards for the first time.

He wasn't as efficient—averaging 4.3 yards per carry—but he did manage to garner the fifth-best elusive rating as compiled by Pro Football Focus.

 

2016 Outlook

If he could just stay healthy, Ivory could be one of the better backs in the league. As nice of a season as he had, Ivory played through injuries for portions of it.

And that is the rub with Ivory—his running style lends itself to injury, which makes him a risky proposition on the open market.

 

Potential Suitors

Whichever team lands Ivory will need to have a solid backup plan on the roster, assuming he is even the starter wherever he goes. 

If the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Miami Dolphins lose Doug Martin or Lamar Miller, respectively, Ivory could fly south to roost. The Cowboys are also a great potential landing spot if they whiff or pass on the top guys in the free-agent class.

The Cleveland Browns could use an upgrade at running back, at least on early downs. Duke Johnson had a decent rookie season, but he may be better suited to complement a guy like Ivory.

4. C.J. Anderson, Denver Broncos

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2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
24	152	720	5	48	4.7	36	25	183	7.3	0

 

2015 Review

What a difference a half-season make.

C.J. Anderson was the latest to suffer from the Curse of the Broncos Starter. He went into the 2015 season buoying the hopes and dreams of many a fantasy football owner, only to take those teams down in flames.

Only when owners finally gave up on him did Anderson turn things around, torching opponents in the second half of the season to the tune of 5.4 yards per carry while scoring six touchdowns from Week 10 on.

Of course, we're not talking about fantasy football here—free agency is the name of the game. Anderson acquitted himself well for a long stretch through the Super Bowl, and it wasn't a fluke—he averages 4.7 yards per carry for his career.

 

2016 Outlook

Anderson looked like an every-down back in the latter portion of the 2015 season, not to mention the postseason. If he can stay healthy, he would make for an excellent lead back in a zone-blocking scheme, as we saw last season.

 

Potential Suitors

As a restricted free agent who happens to be Denver's best running back at this point—not to mention a darn good one if the second half of the season was any indication—it's tough to see the Broncos letting him go in free agency.

Given they don't have much cap space to deal with after franchise-tagging outside linebacker Von Miller and figuring out a new contract for quarterback Brock Osweiler, though, the Broncos might have to make a tough choice on Anderson. If so, he would fit in nicely just about anywhere, even if it's not a zone-blocking system.

The New York Giants leap off the page here, where he could take over the starting job from 30-year-old Rashad Jennings and pair up with pass-catching savant Shane Vereen. Anderson would make a quality replacement for Lamar Miller in Miami or for Doug Martin in Tampa Bay.

3. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears

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2015 Statistics 

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
30	218	898	4	27	4.1	58	44	389	8.8	3

 

2015 Review

One of the most reliable running backs in the league, Matt Forte had another fabulous season for the Bears. Too bad it amounted to nothing as Chicago wallowed in mediocrity yet again.

Forte dealt with some injury issues, but he was rather productive when he was on the field. As usual, he was particularly good in the passing game.

 

2016 Outlook

If Forte was a year or two younger, he would be the clear-cut leader here heading into free agency. Alas, he has not only hit the dreaded 30-year-old mark, but he has also put a ton of mileage on his wheels.

That said, he is still an excellent all-around back who should be a boon to whoever signs him, even if only for a year or two.

 

Potential Suitors

If Forte wants to win a championship, he needs to sign with a contender. (You can thank Captain Obvious for that sentence later.)

Of course, those contenders would need to be interested in him first.

What if Forte went to the dark side and landed in Green Bay? The Packers were less than pleased with Lacy's performance, which was directly attributable to his weight. Starks did a nice job in spurts, but Forte could be a rich man's version of what Starks brought to the table.

The New England Patriots are also a great option for Forte, though Lewis was great for them last season and should be back from injury to start 2016.

2. Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Chris Keane/Associated Press

2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
26	288	1402	6	84	4.9	44	33	271	8.2	1

 

2015 Review

Regaining his rookie form and then some, Doug Martin had a resurgent season at the perfect time. 

His turnaround was evident in the preseason. It was on us for scarcely believing it. 

Martin was the beneficiary of a healthy season and decent offensive line play, coming close to winning the rushing title while playing with a rookie quarterback and sharing time with Charles Sims. He led the league in PFF's elusive rating last season by a relatively wide margin, and he was the site's second-best back all around. 

How's that for unexpected?

 

2016 Outlook

Which Martin are we going to get? The one who burst onto the scene with a huge rookie year or nearly led the league in rushing last season, or the one who plodded his way through his second and third seasons?

Then there is the fact he isn't a particularly great pass-catcher, though he isn't quite Morris in that department. His lack of involvement in the passing game makes him a two-down back and keeps him from being at the top of the list here.

 

Potential Suitors

The Buccaneers would surely love to have him back, but Martin might command too much money for a commitment, given Sims played so well last season.

Dallas makes for an excellent landing spot if he winds up elsewhere. The Cowboys weren't the same without DeMarco Murray last season, and Martin would bring that running game right back to prominence.

1. Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

2015 Statistics

Age	Att	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD
24	194	872	8	85	4.5	57	47	397	8.4	2

 

2015 Review

Lamar Miller was great in 2015. If only Miami had used him properly.

The former Hurricane would have had a huge year had his hometown Dolphins fed him the ball more often. Perhaps his own team thought he wasn't durable enough to withstand more carries. 

He would get going and mysteriously disappear from the game plan despite his success.

 

2016 Outlook

Miller is heading into his prime as a NFL running back, and he could do some serious damage in the league going forward. His pass-catching ability makes him the most complete back in free agency under 29, and he will thrive just about anywhere he lands.

 

Potential Suitors

Perhaps his workload will be a red flag to the rest of the league. But his tape and production should draw plenty of attention on the open market, should the Dolphins fail to re-sign their homegrown star at any rate.

If Miami can't afford to retain him—a likely scenario given the cap situation in south Florida—Miller would be a great fit in Dallas, where he would have one of the best offensive lines in the league. 

Perhaps he got used to mediocrity with the Dolphins, which might make him more inclined to land with the Tennessee Titans.

 

Statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

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