Ranking Top College Football Divisions Heading into 2016
The strength and weakness of college football's divisions has developed into a major talking point.
How does the East of one conference compare with the West? How does that affect how we perceive a team's record? How hard was that team's road to the title game?
To rank next year's major divisions—the ACC Atlantic and Coastal, the Big Ten East and West, the Pac-12 North and South and the SEC East and West—we've used data from SB Nation's S&P+ projections, an advanced metric that accounts for multiple factors.
Among those factors are recruiting impact, returning production and five-year weighted performance, which correlate strongly with how teams—and the divisions they compete in—will perform.
From there, a subjective call was made based on the teams in each division. But the numbers did the heavy lifting.
Sound off below and let us know what you think!
8. Big Ten West
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 53 | 8 |
| Returning Production | 57.67 | 7 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 55.67 | 8 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 4.30 | 8 |
The Big Ten West is as mediocre as advertised.
Last year, after Iowa plowed through the division undefeated, it lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game and then had its bell rung against Stanford in the Rose Bowl. That's a bad look for a 12-0 division champion.
It's also a bad look when next year's projected favorite, Nebraska, finished the previous season with seven losses. The Huskers are the only Big Ten West team that ranks in the top 30 in returning production.
Every other division on this list boasts multiple teams.
7. ACC Coastal
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 44 | 7 |
| Returning Production | 57.00 | 6 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 50.17 | 7 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 5.80 | 7 |
The fall of Virginia Tech and Miami, the Coastal's supposed powers, has made the division an afterthought for half a decade.
However, the Hokies and Hurricanes moved on from Frank Beamer and Al Golden, hiring Justin Fuente and Mark Richt, respectively, to replace them. Those are both high-upside hires who could restore one or both of the programs—and the division—to national relevance.
That and the slow rise of North Carolina, Pat Narduzzi turning Pitt into a contender and the once-every-few-years contention of Georgia Tech make the Coastal a division worth watching. There's plenty of potential for it to grow and challenge the Atlantic.
Right now, it just lacks a signature team.
6. SEC East
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 29 | t-2 |
| Returning Production | 63.33 | 8 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 39.00 | 2 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 6.33 | 6 |
The struggles of the SEC East have been overstated—it still ranks No. 2 in five-year weighted S&P+—but next year might be its worst in recent memory.
No division returns less production, with the average team ranking outside the national top 60. Looking closer at those numbers reveals a schism between the top three (Tennessee, Georgia, Florida), which all rank inside the top 20, and the bottom four (Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky), which all rank outside the top 70.
Those numbers imply a serious lack of parity. Tennessee, Georgia and Florida are almost certain to sweep Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Kentucky and then feast on one another only.
In this regard, the SEC East resembles the Big Ten East, a division we'll get to later. The only difference is that the Big Ten East has a top four (Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Penn State), and that group has better alphas than Georgia and Tennessee.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
5. Pac-12 South
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 29 | t-2 |
| Returning Production | 54.14 | 5 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 42.67 | 4 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 7.62 | 4 |
On paper, the Pac-12 South can rank higher. No division outside the SEC recruits better, and that impact provides upward mobility.
The problem with this division has been coaching density. The best talent resides at USC and UCLA, but those coaching staffs have perennially underachieved. The best coaching resides at Utah, Arizona and Arizona State, but those rosters lack as much talent.
The result is a division that feasts on itself, with the top never far from the bottom but unable to compete for playoff spots. This may be the year that changes, especially with quarterback Josh Rosen becoming a sophomore at UCLA, but history has taught us not to fall for these teams' offseason hype trains, no matter how appealing their siren.
They have a lot to prove before rising.
4. Big Ten East
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 34 | 4 |
| Returning Production | 50.33 | 4 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 46.67 | 6 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 7.48 | 5 |
The Big Ten East is loaded but top-heavy.
With Michigan and Ohio State, it has two projected top-15 teams. With Michigan State and Penn State, it has two more projected top-30 teams. Only one other division can claim that.
So why does the Big Ten East rank No. 4? Because the rest of the league is anemic. Indiana is slowly improving, and Maryland and Rutgers tied their hopes to former division coordinators—D.J. Durkin (via Michigan) and Chris Ash (via Ohio State), respectively—but for now, each is likely to go winless against the top four.
Earmark this division as one to watch. It's hard to ignore Urban Meyer, Jim Harbaugh and Mark Dantonio—three of the best (six?) head coaches in college football—playing in the same league.
The bottom just needs to rise toward the top.
3. Pac-12 North
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 37 | 6 |
| Returning Production | 43.17 | 3 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 39.67 | 3 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 9.03 | 3 |
The Pac-12 North has been owned by Stanford and Oregon, but the reason it ranks so high next year is actually Washington.
In Year 3 under head coach Chris Petersen, the Huskies are projected to rank No. 10 in S&P+. The offense is led by rising sophomores Jake Browning and Myles Gaskin at quarterback and running back, respectively, and the defense is led by six rising juniors—Budda Baker, Sidney Jones, Darren Gardenhire, Azeem Victor, Keishawn Bierria and Elijah Qualls—as outlined by UW Dawg Pound's John Sayler.
Throw in the upstart Huskies alongside the always-competitive Cardinal and Ducks, and you have three legitimate playoff contenders. Add to that a pair of explosive top-50 teams in Washington State and California, and you have enough depth to feel good about.
This division is on the up and up.
2. ACC Atlantic
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 35 | 5 |
| Returning Production | 28.83 | 2 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 45.33 | 5 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 11.98 | 2 |
Clemson (No. 3) and Florida State (No. 5) are both projected top-five teams. The winner of their matchup has won the ACC five straight seasons, which says a lot about the gap between the Atlantic and the Coastal.
But the Atlantic is more than just a two-team division. Louisville is a projected top-20 team and has a high ceiling under sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson, who ended last year on a high note with 227 passing yards and 226 rushing yards in the Music City Bowl against Texas A&M. The only other quarterbacks to throw and pass for 200 yards in a bowl game are Vince Young and Johnny Manziel.
"If he improves like he did in the bowl preparation, we can get to where we can really throw the ball," head coach Bobby Petrino said of Jackson, per Steve Jones of the Courier-Journal. "We feel like we finished the year really running the ball the way we want to."
The Cardinals, Tigers and Seminoles can hang with any division's top three—even the No. 1 league on this list. The bottom of the division keeps the Atlantic as a distant No. 2, but it's definitely rising fast.
1. SEC West
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| Avg. Rank | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| Recruiting Impact | 15 | 1 |
| Returning Production | 19.33 | 1 |
| 5-Year Weighted S&P+ | 16.83 | 1 |
| Avg. S&P+ | Div. Rank (1-8) | |
| 2016 Projected S&P+ | 16.18 | 1 |
If the Big Ten West is as mediocre as advertised, the SEC West is as awesome.
It might be even more awesome.
All seven teams—Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Auburn—rank inside the projected S&P+ top 25. The division ranks No. 1 in five-year performance and recruiting impact, which means it has played the best and attracts the best talent, but it also ranks No. 1 in returning production, which means the ranks haven't been too thinned by NFL draft decisions.
Why is that so important? Because the SEC East, as discussed on an earlier slide, ranks last in returning production.
If you thought the gap between them was big the past two seasons…just wait to see how big it grows next year.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
