25 Biggest Trap Games for 2016 College Football Season
With a few exceptions from the mid-major ranks, the schedules are out for college football's 2016 season. We can start to assess the type of journey top teams will navigate on the road to the playoffs and where the toughest challenges will come from, but it's not always from the most obvious places.
The eyes naturally focus in on the high-profile opponents, the rivals and foes that are coming off big years. But just as dangerous are those seemingly unsuspecting opponents who lurk in the shadows cast by the big boys, teams that are lying in wait ready to spring a trap.
The trap game is a regular phenomenon in college football, with tunnel vision toward what's ahead or the lingering effects of a just-faced competitor leaving top teams vulnerable. It doesn't always result in a loss, but the stress level is still very high.
Based on how the schedules are set up for 2016, here's 25 of the biggest potential trap games of the upcoming season.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Week 2)
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When: Sept. 10
Alabama will open defense of its national championship on a grand stage during Week 1, facing USC at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. This will be the fifth consecutive season the Crimson Side begin with a high-profile neutral-site game, and they've won the previous four by an average of 20 points.
The Tide normally schedule a walkover opponent the following week for their home opener, but this time around they'll be facing one of the best mid-major teams in the country and one with the potential to make for a stressful return to Tuscaloosa.
Western Kentucky went 12-2 last season, breezing through Conference USA behind a potent passing attack. Quarterback Brandon Doughty has graduated, but what remains is an offensive system that will keep firing until the final whistle.
Don't expect 'Bama to lose this game, but also don't expect a game as easy as last year's Week 2 romp (37-10 vs. Middle Tennessee).
USC Trojans vs. Utah State Aggies (Week 2)
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When: Sept. 10
Just like with Alabama, USC will be coming down off the emotions of that opening clash in Texas against the defending national champions. It might be difficult to show the same fire and intensity the following week, especially if the Trojans head home at 0-1.
Doing that could be disastrous, considering what USC has coming after it hosts a consistent Utah State team.
This is the only home game for USC in the first month of 2016, as it dives into Pac-12 play with consecutive road games against Stanford and Utah. Being 1-3 going into October is very possible, as could 0-4 if the Trojans ignore Utah State—which has made a bowl game in five straight seasons—by lingering too much on the Alabama game while looking ahead to the upcoming league tilts.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. North Dakota State Bison (Week 3)
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When: Sept. 17
By now, any FBS team that schedules North Dakota State is just asking for the trouble. The Bison have won five consecutive FCS national titles and in that run have knocked off four FBS teams.
None have been as good as Iowa, but that's beside the point: Inviting NDSU to your field is a recipe for disaster.
Iowa plays its first three games at home, with the one before this the most important of the lot. That's the annual clash with in-state rival Iowa State, which beat the Hawkeyes in Ames in 2014 before Iowa reclaimed the Cy-Hawk Trophy last season.
Fond memories of another potential triumph over the Cyclones have the potential to cloud Iowa's vision at the wrong time and against the wrong opponent.
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Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes at Appalachian State Mountaineers (Week 3)
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When: Sept. 17
Miami is hoping its recent hire of Mark Richt can help return the program to its stature from the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s, when "The U" was among the most well-known brands in college football. Playing home-and-home series with non-power schools doesn't really fit in with this goal.
The Hurricanes are slated to play on the road against a team from the Sun Belt, Mid-American or Conference USA each of the next four seasons, after winning at C-USA school Florida Atlantic last year. The 2016 trip to Boone, North Carolina, has the makings of the most treacherous of those trips, one that could put a serious crimp in Richt's early momentum.
Appalachian State was 11-2 a season ago, winning its first-ever bowl game, and the Mountaineers return 15 starters, including quarterback Taylor Lamb and 1,400-yard rusher Marcus Cox.
And Miami won't exactly have been well-rested coming in. It opens with consecutive home games against FCS school Florida A&M and then Florida Atlantic.
Utah Utes at San Jose State Spartans (Week 3)
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When: Sept. 17
Utah's impressive 2015 season was capped by an emotional win over rival BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl, a game the Utes had all season to bask in the glory of. They get another chance to beat the Cougars in 2016, but another win won't be able to be celebrated for as long.
A week after hosting BYU, Utah plays its long nonconference road game in a matchup that was likely scheduled for recruiting purposes. As with last year's trip to Fresno State (and a 2021 game at San Diego State), playing in California can help land future prospects such as the seven it signed from the Golden State in the 2016 class.
It could be harder to convince additional players to commit to Utah if it were to lose this game, which is entirely possible in the wake of having faced BYU the week before and with the Pac-12 opener against USC coming on the following Friday night.
TCU Horned Frogs at SMU Mustangs (Week 4)
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When: Sept. 23
TCU and SMU are old Southwest Conference rivals, but since that league disbanded in the 1990s, they've gone on very different paths. TCU's route has taken it to the Big 12 where it's now a national power, having won 23 games the last two seasons, while SMU has needed five years to get to that total while playing in Conference USA and the American.
SMU's rebuilding plan under coach Chad Morris figures to be a slow one, and it's not helped by having to play TCU and Baylor again in 2016. But if there's one of those games where the Mustangs have a shot to make noise, it will be at home.
The Horned Frogs could very easily be looking ahead to Oct. 1, when they host Oklahoma in a critical early Big 12 game. Last season they nearly slipped at home to winless Kansas a week before playing the Sooners.
Florida State Seminoles at South Florida Bulls (Week 4)
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When: Sept. 24
Florida State has a loaded schedule that includes national runner-up Clemson, Sugar Bowl winner Ole Miss, ACC contenders Louisville and North Carolina and in-state rivals Miami and Florida. The rest of the lineup probably doesn't strike fear on first glance, but South Florida is worth a second look.
The Bulls were still figuring themselves out last September when they lost 34-14 in Tallahassee, but by year's end they were one of the hottest mid-major teams in the country. They won eight games, their most since 2010.
Florida State's first visit to Tampa since 2012 comes at an inopportune time on the schedule, right after playing at Louisville and a week before hosting UNC.
Louisville Cardinals at Marshall Thundering Herd (Week 4)
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When: Sept. 24
Louisville has the odd distinction of playing two non-power teams on the road in 2016, though it's quite familiar with one of those opponents. The Cardinals lost at home to Houston last year, with Houston going on to win 13 games and beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl, so they're eagerly anticipating the rematch this November.
Needless to say, the trip to Huntington, West Virginia, doesn't have the same sizzle. And its spot on the schedule almost guarantees that Marshall won't get Louisville's full attention.
The Cardinals will be coming off a home game against Florida State, which could set the tone for a possible run to the ACC Atlantic Division title. The same goes for the game right after Marshall, at defending conference champ Clemson.
That three-game stretch will dictate how 2016 goes for Louisville, but Marshall is a distant third in terms of importance.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Massachusetts Minutemen (Week 4)
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When: Sept. 24
Because the SEC counts BYU toward its nonconference scheduling requirements, Mississippi State will be facing a power opponent in non-league play for the first time since 2013. That still doesn't explain why the Bulldogs set up a three-game with Massachusetts and opted to have the first meeting be on the road.
Massachusetts is an independent this season after spending the last four years in the Mid-American Conference, and in those four seasons it went 8-40. Not the most daunting of foes, though one that could pounce on a wounded visitor as Mississippi State could be.
The Bulldogs will have played at LSU the week before, and after UMass is a bye week. Many players might already be looking ahead to the time off while playing in New England.
BYU Cougars vs. Toledo Rockets (Week 5)
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When: Sept. 30
BYU's ambitious scheduling has reached critical mass in 2016, with the Cougars facing six power-conference teams in the first seven weeks. And right in the middle is a pretty good now-power opponent, but one whose pedigree doesn't stack up with the rest of the lineup.
Toledo has won 52 games over the past six seasons, going 10-2 last year with victories over two power schools. The Rockets will come to Provo for a Friday night game held six days after BYU faces West Virginia in Landover, Maryland, and a week before the Cougars travel to Michigan State.
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores (Week 5)
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When: Oct. 1
Florida won the SEC East in Jim McElwain's first season, though it limped to the finish with three straight losses and a couple of other close finishes. That included an ugly 9-7 home win over Vanderbilt, a trap game that followed the Gators' big victory over rival Georgia.
Vandy pops up on the schedule at another inconvenient time, right in between a pair of games that will go a long way toward determining if Florida can defend its division title.
The trip to Nashville comes at the tail end of a two-game road swing, the first game being at Tennessee. After playing the Commodores, Florida hosts LSU.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Syracuse Orange (Week 5)
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When: Oct. 1
Notre Dame's scheduling agreement with the ACC has so far produced at least one instant classic and one stinker each year. In 2014 the Fighting Irish went down to the wire with Florida State but also struggled to pull away from an underachieving North Carolina team the week before. Last season they nearly knocked off Clemson on the road but also sleepwalked through a win over Boston College.
This year's top ACC tilt will probably be when Notre Dame hosts Miami (Fla.) in late October, and the game against Syracuse has the best shot of being the uninspiring performance. The game will be held in MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, the same place the Irish beat Syracuse two years ago.
Because it's in a neutral site rather than the Carrier Dome, Notre Dame should have an overwhelming edge in fans much like the BC game at Fenway Park in Boston. That doesn't ensure the Irish will play well, however.
Texas A&M Aggies at South Carolina Gamecocks (Week 5)
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When: Oct. 1
Texas A&M has started 5-0 the past two years, only to fall apart in the second half of each season. If the Aggies win their first four games in 2016—which would be an impressive feat since it would include victories over UCLA, Auburn and Arkansas—they'd be set up for a huge Week 6 matchup with Tennessee.
But there's that pesky trip to South Carolina to concern themselves with.
Columbia's Williams-Brice Stadium used to be an imposing place to play, but since A&M rolled to a 52-28 win there to open 2014, ending the Gamecocks' 18-game home win streak, it has lost there six more times (including to FCS The Citadel in November).
South Carolina is under new leadership, and though not much is expected from Will Muschamp's first season, this game will provide the Gamecocks with an opportunity to make some progress.
Clemson Tigers at Boston College Eagles (Week 6)
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When: Oct. 7
Clemson's quest to repeat as ACC champions likely comes down to two games that bracket October: home against Louisville and at Florida State. Win those, and the Tigers should be in line to claim the Atlantic Division and again play in Charlotte in December.
All other ACC games should be considered potential pitfalls only if Clemson allows them to be. Such as a quick turnaround to play a rebuilding team on the road, right after one of the biggest games of the year.
Boston College was winless in the league and 3-9 overall last season, despite one of the best defenses in the country. Clemson was the only team to top 30 points on the Eagles, but that was at home. This time the Tigers will head to Chestnut Hill six days after hosting Louisville.
LSU Tigers vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (Week 7)
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When: Oct. 15
The SEC slate is so difficult and rigorous, the only way to survive the gauntlet is with frequent breaks along the way. That seems to be the philosophy of several teams in the league, which choose to litter their schedules with nonconference games instead of just at the beginning or end. LSU is among those schools, with non-SEC contests on the docket in October and November.
The first of those forays will be the most dangerous, both in terms of competition and its placement on the schedule.
Southern Mississippi won Conference USA's West Division in 2015, and though it's changed coaches, it still has a talented quarterback in Nick Mullens. Last year he threw for 4,476 yards and 38 touchdowns, including 311 against Mississippi State and 447 against Nebraska.
The Golden Eagles come to Baton Rouge right after LSU visits Florida and before the Tigers host Ole Miss, games that will draw far more attention and concern.
Michigan State Spartans at Maryland Terrapins (Week 8)
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When: Oct. 22
Michigan State hit the Big Ten lottery this season, getting Wisconsin, Northwestern, Michigan and Ohio State all at home. The Spartans' four conference road opponents went a combined 21-29 in 2016, with only Penn State posting a record above .500, compared to a 46-18 mark for the five Big Ten home foes.
That light road slate shouldn't be completely disregarded, though, since each trip comes right after MSU will have hosted a 10-win team. In the case of the game at Maryland, it comes right in between such contests against Northwestern and Michigan.
Last year the Spartans played at Rutgers immediately before facing Michigan, and the results were nearly disastrous. They trailed in the first half and didn't score the winning touchdown until the final minute of the fourth quarter.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Virginia Cavaliers (Week 8)
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When: Oct. 22
North Carolina ran off 11 straight wins last season to win the ACC's Coastal Division, benefiting from a rather soft league schedule that didn't see them play its third road game until late November. This fall the Tar Heels will play three conference road games in a four-week span in October, including at Florida State and Miami.
After having taken on those foes away from home, playing at Virginia shouldn't be as daunting. But the visit to Charlottesville comes right after Miami and right before a bye.
UNC has won six straight over Virginia, but in 2014 it escaped with a 28-27 road victory.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers (Week 9)
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When: Oct. 29
Penn State's most important stretch in 2016 includes home games against Ohio State and Iowa, which last year each won 12 games and played in New Year's Six bowls. The Nittany Lions took OSU to overtime the last time it came to Beaver Stadium, while Iowa hasn't won there since 2009.
Those games could be the difference between a good season and a great one for Penn State, which has gone 7-6 the last two years but without any signature victories. It's also mostly avoided the bad loss, which is what falling at Purdue would be.
Purdue will catch PSU right after Ohio State and right before Iowa, a perfect spot for a struggling program to pull off an upset.
Oklahoma Sooners at Iowa State Cyclones (Week 10)
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When: Nov. 3
With a schedule that features five 10-win opponents and a game that serves as the centerpiece of the Texas State Fair, it's hard to imagine there's anything akin to a “soft” spot for Oklahoma this fall. Yet somehow the Sooners got blessed with facing the Big 12's two worst programs on consecutive weeks.
Look closer, though, and you'll see that playing Kansas and Iowa State back-to-back might not be such a good thing.
First off, an extended period of subpar competition could make Oklahoma ill-prepared for the stretch run, which begins Nov. 12 against Baylor and continues a week later at West Virginia. Secondly, the ISU game is on a Thursday and only five days after the Sooners host Kansas, and even if they can sit starters in the second half, they'll have a short turnaround.
Florida State Seminoles at North Carolina State Wolfpack (Week 10)
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When: Nov. 5
Florida State will have an extra week of preparation before taking on Clemson on Oct. 29, a game that may very well decide the ACC's Atlantic Division. The Seminoles don't have the luxury of a bye after that game as well, during which either an emotional high from a big win or the letdown of a tough loss could linger.
North Carolina State will hope to capitalize on whichever situation presents itself, just like it did two years ago when it hosted FSU. The Seminoles were coming off an overtime win against Clemson, at home, and then ran into a buzz saw on their trip to Raleigh. They trailed by 17 points late in the first quarter before rallying for a 56-41 win.
Georgia Bulldogs at Kentucky Wildcats (Week 10)
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When: Nov. 5
For the third consecutive season, Georgia will follow up its rivalry game with Florida by playing Kentucky. The Bulldogs were soundly beaten by Florida in 2014 and 2015 and ended up taking out their frustrations on the Wildcats.
Kirby Smart will want to get off to a good start in that rivalry, since he's replacing a coach (Mark Richt) who was 5-10 against the Gators. A win in the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party cures many ails, but not if it's followed up by a letdown performance in Lexington a week later.
Ole Miss Rebels vs. Georgia Southern Eagles (Week 10)
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When: Nov. 5
Why willingly schedule a game against an option run team if you don't have to?
It made sense for Georgia to set up a late-season game with Georgia Southern in 2015, since that would prepare it for the annual clash against Georgia Tech and its triple-option attack. But Ole Miss? What's the benefit to facing the Eagles, which last year led FBS with 363 rushing yards per game, and to do so during the stretch run?
The Rebels stumbled with an out-of-league game in the middle of SEC play last year, falling at Memphis, and this time around they'll be facing a stern test right before a two-game trip to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt.
Arizona Wildcats at Oregon State Beavers (Week 12)
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When: Nov. 19
With 10 of the Pac-12's dozen schools making bowl games last season, there aren't many trap-game situations on the league schedule at this point. Playing Oregon State on the road late in the year is probably the biggest exception.
The Beavers went winless in the conference in 2015, losing by an average of 24.6 points, and in November they showed little fight in home losses to UCLA (41-0) and Washington (52-7). To assume they'll be as much of a pushover this year would be foolish.
Arizona actually faces the Pac-12's two non-bowl teams in consecutive weeks in November, hosting Colorado before going to Corvallis. The latter also comes six days before the rivalry clash with Arizona State, a game that could draw focus away from the Beavers.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (Week 12)
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When: Nov. 19
Iowa's perfect run through the Big Ten last fall seemed to earn more criticism than praise, since the Hawkeyes avoided all of the tougher East Division teams and they didn't blow out the bad teams on the schedule. The crossover slate is much improved for 2016, with matchups against Michigan and Penn State, but there are still five league games against teams with losing records.
That includes Illinois, which serves as Iowa's final road game and the meat in a Michigan-Nebraska late-season home sandwich. The Fighting Illini were wedged in between the Hawkeyes' wins at Wisconsin and Nebraska last season, and they only lost 29-20 in Iowa City.
Washington State Cougars at Colorado Buffaloes (Week 12)
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When: Nov. 19
The phenomenon that is #Pac12AfterDark applies to the craziness that tends to happen in Pac-12 games that kick off late and end even later. And the further into the season we go, the wilder these contests tend to be.
It was in this month last season when we saw Arizona upset Utah in overtime, Washington State score in the final seconds to win at UCLA and California rally from a large first-half deficit to knock off visiting Arizona State. In 2014, ASU's pursuit of a playoff spot was derailed with a mid-November loss at Oregon State.
All of those games happened at night. If Washington State and Colorado kick off off under the lights, expect insanity to ensue.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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