Preview and Predictions for the 2016 Northern Trust Open
A favorite event of professionals, fans and golf historians, the Northern Trust Open gets underway at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California, this week.
George Thomas' signature design, with its driveable par-four 10th and bunker-in-the-middle-of-the green sixth, began hosting the Los Angeles Open in 1929. Ben Hogan famously won two L.A. Opens and a U.S. Open at Riviera in the late '40s, earning the Pacific Palisades track the moniker "Hogan's Alley."
From the past to the present: This year's event will feature Rory McIlroy for the first time in his career. Jordan Spieth and more figures from the pantheon of pro golf's best will be on hand as well for the tour's toughest par-71 test.
Read on for a full breakdown of where to watch, the biggest storylines and who could lift the trophy this week.
Where to Watch
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Defending Champion: James Hahn
Where: Riviera Country Club, 7,322 yards, par 71
What
Total Purse: $6.8 million
Winning Share: $1.224 million
FedEx Points to Winner: 500
When
Thursday-Friday: 5-8 p.m. ET (Golf Channel)
Saturday: 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6 p.m. (CBS)
Sunday: 1-2:30 p.m. (GC), 3-6:30 p.m. (CBS)
Biggest Storylines
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World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is making his 2016 PGA Tour debut and his career debut at Riviera. With world No. 1 Jordan Spieth also in the field, we're presented with our first potential "McIlroy vs. Spieth" showdown on the PGA Tour this season.
The field this week also includes 15 of the top 30 golfers in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Charlie Danielson from the University of Illinois was awarded an exemption into the field as the winner of Monday's Collegiate Showcase, in which a tour alum of a school is paired with a college player from his alma mater. Also receiving an exemption was J.J. Spaun, a L.A. native and Player of the Year on the Mackenzie Tour last season.
Pat Perez continues his streak of West Coast swing events. Double P has played 55 West Coast events in a row since 2008.
The Favorites
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Jordan Spieth: Since he's the reigning world No. 1 (and already a winner this season), it's a surprise to nobody that Jordan Spieth is a tournament favorite. And for those considering the adept all-around player, it's worth noting that he and his partner shot a best-ball 61 in Monday's Collegiate Showcase.
Rory McIlroy: Riviera is a tricky course from a tactical standpoint, and its greens are difficult to read. Those factors will work against Rory McIlroy in his debut at the L.A. track. However, he is Rory McIlroy. That will work in his favor. McIlroy is an accomplished long-iron player, and so long as he wants to be off the tee, both elements will be key this week.
Hideki Matsuyama: Matsuyama won in his most recent start (Farmers Insurance Open) and finished fourth at Riviera last year. He's second on tour in strokes gained from tee to green this year and was 14th in approaches from 125-150 yards (wedge distance) last year. Wedge work will be key this week, in additions to distance of the tee and long approach shots.
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The Dark Horses
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Paul Casey: Casey finished second at Riviera last year and 12th in 2011. He's recorded top-10 finishes in two of his last four starts. It's hard to rule out a guy who made it into the tournament-deciding playoff. The Englishman was fifth on tour in greens in regulation last season and 10th in strokes gained: total, so he fits the profile of a striker who ought to play well at Riviera, where the short game is of less significance. He's an adept driver as well.
Charl Schwartzel: Sure, it's tough to win in South Africa (as Schwartzel did at last week's Tshwane Open) fly to California and then win the next week, but that's why Schwartzel is a long shot, not a favorite. The numbers, however, make the South African look good this week: two wins, two top-10 finishes in his last four starts. He has two top-10 finishes in his last three Northern Trust Open appearances.
Prediction
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Winner: Sergio Garcia
Skipping over McIlroy makes sense as he's a first-timer here. Spieth was anything but sharp for three days at Pebble Beach, and this looks like a week where he grinds out a top-15 finish without his best stuff. Winning twice in a row is statistically improbable, so forget about Matsuyama. Dustin Johnson is worth considering from a tee-to-green standpoint, but his putting has been among the worst on tour lately (164th in strokes gained in putting). It's tough to think he will handle the notoriously tricky Riviera greens well enough to win.
Eternally a wild card and nearly always a solid bet on paper, Sergio Garcia is always a risky proposition. With that in mind, here are a few reasons why he ought to win this week if he's able to keep from beating himself.
He should have won last year (finished fourth), and he's finished inside the top 10 two of his last four starts at Riviera.
The course has a reputation as a ball striker's paradise, and Garcia is still one of the most adept flushers in the game. He was 12th in strokes gained from tee to green last year and plenty long off the tee.
He seems to have found some confidence after fiddling with his putting grip recently, notching three top-15 finishes in a row on the European Tour.
At 36, he's not content to fade into the background, saying recently he still hopes to win multiple major championships, per BBC Sport (h/t CBSSports.com).
All stats via PGATour.com
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