Post-National Signing Day College Football Playoff Predictions
Thanks to national signing day, rosters across college football are about as complete as they're going to be all year. Of course, incoming freshmen still have to qualify and arrive on campus in time to compete, but the number of players is as high as it's going to be.
As such, the overall look and feel of a team changes a little bit. The same is true about projections for the 2016 season and playoff field. After all, there could be some freshmen and/or junior college transfers who impact the championship race. (Can anyone say Cam Newton and Auburn?)
With signing day now in the rear-view mirror, it's time to call our shots and predict what next season's four-team playoff field will look like based on returning and incoming players. Seedings are based on projected outcomes in the regular season.
These predictions are bound to change, probably soon and often. We're just trying to be honest here.
1. Florida State
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Predictions are all about calling shots, and the shot here is that Florida State, not Clemson, emerges as the ACC champion in 2016.
The Tigers will have a ridiculous offense returning next season—maybe the best in college football. However, they once again have to rebuild their defense after losing both starting defensive ends (Shaq Lawson and Kevin Dodd) plus cornerback Mackensie Alexander.
Every team has questions when a new year begins; it's a matter of how pressing they are. What sticks out about Florida State is its "rebuilding" year was still a 10-win season. If the Seminoles' pass protection improves and their wide receivers take a step forward, their offense should be far more competent. Quarterback Sean Maguire is no Jameis Winston, but he has a big arm, decent mobility and showed in the Peach Bowl he can throw some strikes under pressure.
With the way Florida State recruits—the 'Noles were named signing day winners by the likes of Sports Illustrated and USA Today—there will be some tight offseason position battles as well. After a "down" year, Florida State has the skill to get back to the top of the ACC.
2. Alabama
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Oh, you thought Alabama was going to walk away quietly and let somebody else have a crack at a national championship? You were terribly mistaken, and yes, the Tide are standing right behind you. A piece of advice: Don't look back when you run.
The defensive front seven, maybe the best in college football history—and no, that's not hyperbolic—sustained some heavy losses. However, that was also an incredibly deep group full of No. 2 and No. 3 players ready to move into larger roles. Additionally, seasoned vets such as linebacker Reuben Foster are ready to return.
Incoming freshmen such as linebacker Ben Davis should be able to fill a Reggie Ragland-type role—at least in part—right away. And while the quarterback competition will take center stage on offense, running back Bo Scarbrough figures to be the next great Tide running back.
When you have the No. 1 class for six straight years, per 247Sports, there's nothing else to call it other than a recruiting dynasty. LSU and Ole Miss will give Alabama a run in 2016, but head coach Nick Saban is the most proven coach in that group. Alabama isn't going anywhere.
3. Michigan
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Oh yeah, we're all in with Michigan making the playoff after signing day. If nothing else, it will be the most entertaining media circus for the new postseason format to date.
The cupboard certainly wasn't bare when Jim Harbaugh took over the program last year, and the '16 class only reinforces what he's building. The Wolverines finished with the No. 5 class nationally and landed the No. 1 overall recruit, defensive tackle Rashan Gary.
Michigan should be deep at D-line, but it's hard to imagine Gary not getting at least some playing time next season. Plus, safety Jabrill Peppers is back and is the best player on the team. Expect the Wolverines to be tough up front with another bruising running game. The quarterback competition will be fun to watch, but with Harbaugh's reputation as a developer—he did an excellent job with Jake Rudock last year—that's the least of this team's concerns.
With Michigan State and Ohio State forced to rebuild after heavy personnel losses, this seems like the type of season where Michigan can make a quicker rise to the playoff than perhaps some initially expected.
"Our biggest recruiting day was last year, when we got Coach Harbaugh back," former Michigan quarterback Tom Brady said at Michigan's signing day event, per Dan Murphy of ESPN.com. "I've competed against him, and lost."
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4. Oklahoma
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The final spot for the post-signing day playoff was a tough fill. So far, the selection committee has preferred conference champions over all else. That means, assuming certain trends continue, the champion of the Big 12 or Pac-12 (or Notre Dame) has the inside track.
Based on who's returning, the Sooners get a slight edge. It helps to have a Heisman-caliber quarterback in Baker Mayfield, but the offense is more than that. Running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon return, and Oklahoma was at its best when both of them were playing at high levels.
The primary concern for Oklahoma is its pass rush. The disruptive duo of linebacker Eric Striker and Charles Tapper are gone, and there isn't a lot of experience ready to move into their place. Oklahoma may have to rely on some freshmen to fill those holes. That's why getting 4-star defensive Mark Jackson Jr. to flip from Texas A&M was so pivotal. Additionally, the Sooners got a late surprise from 5-star outside linebacker Caleb Kelly.
“That puts more pressure on me but that’s what I like anyway. That’s my goal; I want to go play," Kelly told Josh McCuistion of Rivals.com. "I think the first game there is a good chance, at Houston, Sept. 3, I’ll be suiting up and I could be either second string or starting."
The top of the Big 12 could look similar to 2015 as far as contenders go. With what Oklahoma has coming back, it should be the early favorite.
Peach Bowl: Florida State vs. Oklahoma
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It's back to the Peach Bowl for Florida State and head coach Jimbo Fisher, who's looking for a better result after losing to Houston in Atlanta.
Without a doubt, Oklahoma has the quarterback edge here with Mayfield, but both running games are outstanding. The chances of Perine, Mixon or FSU's Dalvin Cook (or a combination of the three) eclipsing 100 yards is high.
Mayfield's best quality is he's afraid of no one, nor is he afraid to let anyone know it. He oozes with bravado. But Florida State has a physical defense. Edge-rusher Josh Sweat is a star in the making, and safety Derwin James will take your head off.
The Sooners have the fast, athletic defense to stay with FSU's skill guys, who, it should be noted, have a lot to prove in 2016. But if Cook has a big game, stopping the run has proven to be the weakness for Oklahoma in the past.
Predicted Winner: Florida State
Fiesta Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan
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In this playoff universe, the Fiesta Bowl is a bit of an odd duck because it wouldn't be geographically convenient for Alabama or Michigan. It's a true neutral-site location.
Schematically, Alabama and Michigan aren't all that different on offense. Both will want to run the ball down the other's throat. Both have the defensive fronts to stop those types of power-running attacks. This is a game in which some of those top 2016 defensive signees—Gary, Davis and the like—could come up big.
This could be one of those outcomes in which the game is low-scoring through two or three quarters but as time goes on, defenses tire out and points come a bit easier. Throw in some creativity from Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin and things could get fun late.
Both programs are big, tough and hard to move in the trenches. This could be more even than the Alabama-Michigan State matchup in the Cotton Bowl. Ultimately, though, Alabama's defensive depth ends up being the difference.
Predicted Winner: Alabama
National Championship: Florida State vs. Alabama
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If our post-signing day playoff unfolds as predicted—and when has that ever gone wrong?—then college football will get the championship game it thought it would a couple of years ago.
In fact, if we get an Alabama-Florida State title, it'll involve the No. 1 and No. 2 classes from 2016, respectively. And there could be plenty of big moments from freshmen like Davis for Alabama, or cornerback Levonta Taylor and wide receiver Keith Gavin for Florida State.
If the Tide's pass rush is anywhere close to where it was this past season, Florida State could be in trouble. Ideally, the Seminoles' pass protection improves over the course of the season, but as of now, it's a concern.
It's awfully hard to get back to the playoff, let alone win back-to-back national titles. However, Saban has recruited at a championship level for years and won consecutive titles in the BCS era. If anyone makes it possible, it's him.
Predicted Winner: Alabama
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All recruiting information courtesy of 247Sports.
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