SEC Football: Early Odds for Each Team to Make the 2016-17 Playoff
We just wrapped up national signing day, but it's never too early to start looking ahead to the 2016-2017 College Football Playoff, right?
According to Odds Shark, seven SEC squads—Alabama (7-1), LSU and Tennessee (14-1), Ole Miss (20-1), Georgia and Auburn (33-1) and Florida (40-1)—are among the 20 most likely teams to win the national title this season.
But Las Vegas odds typically skew toward bigger names, hype and value.
Where did Vegas get it right, and which are the sucker bets? Our picks based on legitimate hype, irrelevant offseason talking points, schedule and talent are in this slideshow.
14. Missouri Tigers: 1,900-1
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Sorry, Missouri. I know you were close to the BCS National Championship Game in December in 2013 and were 60 minutes away from an SEC title when you walked into the Georgia Dome to play Alabama a year later.
But those days are long, long gone.
This Missouri team relied on its stellar defense in 2015 thanks to the reliability of stud linebacker Kentrell Brothers. But Brothers is gone now, the offense is still a massive question mark under quarterback Drew Lock, and there are no running backs like Russell Hansbrough for new head coach Barry Odom to fall back on.
Plus, Missouri opens at West Virginia, and plays at LSU, Florida and Tennessee. Can it survive all of those traps? Not likely. Plus, even if it does, it would still have to top the SEC West champion in Atlanta.
That's not happening.
13. South Carolina Gamecocks: 1,800-1
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First-year South Carolina head coach Will Muschamp has assembled a solid staff and had some success down the stretch on the recruiting trail. But his first season as the head coach of the Gamecocks will be more about laying the groundwork than contending for the SEC East and College Football Playoff.
The reasons are simple—there are massive offensive questions, and the schedule doesn't set up well for a title run.
The Gamecocks lost stud wide receiver Pharoh Cooper, have no proven playmakers on offense and have to settle on a quarterback after a roller-coaster year at the position in 2015. That's a terrible recipe for a team that travels to Vanderbilt (which has a tremendous defense) to open the season and Mississippi State a week later.
On top of that, the Gamecocks travel to Clemson to close the year, get Florida on the road as well and face Tennessee after the Vols have a bye.
Good luck, "Coach Boom."
12. Kentucky Wildcats: 1,500-1
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It's a critical year for Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops and his Wildcats. The former Florida State defensive coordinator has missed out on a bowl game in each of his first three seasons in the Bluegrass State, and fixing that glitch is job No. 1 for Stoops in 2016.
But the playoff? That's a little bit more far-fetched.
Drew Barker should be better with a full year as the front-runner for the starting quarterback job, and newcomers Stephen Johnson II and Gunnar Hoak provide options for Stoops if Barker struggles. But the defense is lacking in the playmaker department, the offense has no proven wide receivers to help out the quarterbacks, and aside from the running back duo of Stanley "Boom" Williams and Jojo Kemp, the Wildcats leave a lot to be desired.
They have games at Florida (Sept. 10), at Alabama (Oct. 1), at Tennessee (Nov. 12) and at Louisville (Nov. 26).
A bowl could happen. A playoff run? Nope.
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11. Vanderbilt Commodores: 1,000-1
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Why is it so hard for fans of other teams to consider Vanderbilt anything more than a cellar-dweller? "Because it's Vandy."
Nowadays, though, "Vandy" means a team that is solid on the ground and plays reliably and consistently on defense. Ralph Webb has rushed for 2,059 yards over the last two seasons, and linebacker Zach Cunningham will return in 2016 to lead a Commodore defense that finished in the top 30 nationally in total defense (28th), scoring defense (22nd), third-down defense (sixth) and red-zone defense (sixth).
The bad news is that, while Kyle Shurmur could become a star at quarterback, the 'Dores are lacking in wide receiver depth and haven't been able to find a way to give Webb a little help over the last two seasons.
Plus, games at Georgia, Auburn and Georgia Tech, and the rest of the SEC slate make a playoff run tough to fathom.
10. Arkansas Razorbacks: 150-1
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Make no mistake about it: Arkansas will be competitive in the SEC West yet again in 2016 as indicated by the huge jump in odds from No. 11 Vandy to No. 10 Arkansas.
The problem, though, is that it could be knocked out of the playoff chase before even getting into SEC play.
The Razorbacks travel to TCU in Week 2, and with the loss of quarterback Brandon Allen, two stud running backs, several pieces along the offensive line and tight end Hunter Henry, it's hard to imagine the Hogs getting into and winning a shootout with a potent offense like the Horned Frogs boast early in the season.
When they hit the conference slate, things aren't as difficult as they've been in years past. Alabama, Ole Miss and LSU all play in Fayetteville. But the Crimson Tide and Rebels come in back-to-back weekends prior to Arkansas' bye week, and the Hogs follow those two games with a road trip to Auburn on Oct. 22 before finally getting a week off.
That's not easy.
As is the case with every team in the SEC West, the Hogs will be competitive. A playoff run, though, is a bit premature.
9. Mississippi State Bulldogs: 145-1
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Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen has done a fantastic job at raising the floor of the program where bowl games are the expectation, and raised the ceiling over the last two seasons by earning the first No. 1 ranking in program in history in 2014, producing a superstar in former quarterback Dak Prescott and consistently replacing star defenders with more star defenders.
Now comes the tricky part: the post-Dak Prescott era.
Nick Fitzgerald should be able to step in and run essentially the same offense, which also features all of its contributors at running back from a year ago, stud wide receiver Fred Ross and a more talented supporting cast outside than Mullen has ever had in Starkville.
Defensively, the identity of the Bulldogs does not and has not changed no matter who's coordinating the defense. They hit hard, play stellar situational defense in the red zone and on third downs, and force turnovers.
The schedule is tricky with trips to LSU, BYU, Alabama and Ole Miss, but Mississippi State should at least be competitive in the division. The playoff, though, is a tad bit aggressive.
8. Florida Gators: 50-1
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Florida found its way to the Georgia Dome as SEC East champions in Jim McElwain's first year as the head coach. A return trip in 2016, though, will be a little tougher.
The quarterback situation can best be described as murky. Former starter Treon Harris moved to wide receiver, Austin Appleby transferred from Purdue, former Alabama and Oregon State quarterback Luke Del Rio is now eligible after sitting out his transfer year, and true freshman Feleipe Franks enrolled early to try to win the job. McElwain has to figure out who's going to lead his offense, because the Gators team in the second half of the season with Harris at the helm in place of suspended starter Will Grier was a shell of itself.
The defense should be solid again, led by corner Jalen Tabor. But replacing fellow corner Vernon Hargreaves, defensive lineman Jon Bullard and other pieces might force at least a little bit of inconsistency—especially early.
On top of the typical SEC schedule, the Gators have the annual rivalry with LSU on the docket as well as the rivalry game with Florida State—likely a national title contender—in Tallahassee to close the season.
Florida could be solid and even contend for the division again. But the quarterback issue combined with a tough schedule makes a playoff run unlikely.
7. Texas A&M Aggies: 49-1
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After three straight years of anonymity, which included former quarterback Johnny Manziel's final year in College Station, it seems difficult to love—or even like—Texas A&M in 2016.
Don't fall into that trap, because the Aggies will be in the mix.
Trevor Knight had his ups and downs at Oklahoma, but he's certainly good enough to succeed in an Aggies offense that should benefit from his ability as a dual-threat quarterback and experience in college football. Texas A&M has what looks like an NBA starting lineup at wide receiver and a solid running back in James White, and it gets former Sooner running back Keith Ford in the mix as well after sitting out a transfer year.
On top of that, new coordinator Noel Mazzone—while still a spread coach—is more of a run-based spread guru than his predecessor, Jake Spavital.
The defense is led by a dynamic duo at defensive end in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, Daylon Mack is a monster in the middle, Armani Watts is a beast at safety, former 5-star corner Priest Willis is eligible after transferring from UCLA, and Otaro Alaka is back at linebacker after a year off.
"Got some depth there with Otaro Alaka coming back," head coach Kevin Sumlin said on national signing day. "He looks great. The year off and medical redshirt really has helped him."
Add in another offseason of defenders becoming comfortable with coordinator John Chavis' system, and the Aggies should surprise some people.
6. Auburn Tigers: 45-1
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Auburn's 2015 season was nearly a disaster, but this team is still set up to make some noise in 2016.
Head coach Gus Malzahn addressed his two most glaring issues during the 2016 recruiting cycle—quarterback and defensive line.
He inked a short-term quarterback solution in junior college weapon John Franklin III—who served as Nick Marshall on Florida State's scout team leading up to the 2014 BCS National Championship Game between the Seminoles and Tigers. He also added 4-star dual-threat quarterback Woody Barrett, who will bring more of a Cam Newton-ish power attack back to the position.
Those two give Malzahn options alongside co-starters Sean White and Jeremy Johnson, both of whom are back to compete for the job along with stud running back Jovon Robinson.
Up front, Malzhan signed 5-star tackle Derrick Brown, 4-star Antwaun Jackson, 4-star defensive end Marlon Davidson, junior college rush specialist Paul James and underrated end Nick Coe. This is in addition to a defensive line that already includes tackle Montravius Adams, and ends Carl Lawson and Byron Cowart.
That's championship-level depth.
The problem for Auburn is the schedule. Road trips to Ole Miss, Georgia and Auburn over the final five weeks are brutal, and the Tigers open up with national runner-up Clemson on the Plains. In my way-too-early SEC West predictions, I had Auburn higher than most. But it's hard to imagine the new pieces being as ready as they need to be for the first game, which could severely impact Malzahn's push for the playoff.
5. LSU Tigers: 35-1
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LSU is probably a bit lower on this list than on other odds boards, and that's OK.
Betting on LSU to make or win the playoff is the sucker bet of the offseason.
Yes, David Aranda is a phenomenal defensive coordinator. Yes, the defense returns a ton of great players, including linebacker Kendell Beckwith and corner Tre'Davious White. Yes, there are weapons galore outside. Yes, running back Leonard Fournette is a monster and the best running back in a sport that's loaded with running back talent.
No, none of it means an awful lot in terms of the playoff.
Based on comments to ESPN's Marty Smith, it appears LSU head coach Les Miles will retain offensive coordinator Cam Cameron after Cameron's three-year contract expires, despite it becoming clear over Cameron's and Miles' tenures in Baton Rouge that their strict and rigid offense that lacks creativity and flexibility doesn't work well with a dual-threat quarterback. Brandon Harris would be awesome in an offense that actually utilizes his skills, but Miles has been trying to fit square pegs into round holes ever since signing dual-threat quarterback Ryan Perrilloux in 2005.
That lack of creativity has created an "Alabama problem" at LSU. The Tigers have lost five straight to former head coach Nick Saban, and tough games in Green Bay versus Wisconsin, at Auburn—where LSU typically struggles—and at Florida, and the rest of the SEC slate make a playoff run more myth than reality.
I had LSU far down in early SEC West picks, but it chimes in higher in playoff odds because its out-of-conference matchup in Week 1 isn't as daunting as Auburn's (Clemson) or Texas A&M's (UCLA).
4. Georgia Bulldogs: 30-1
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First-year Georgia head coach Kirby Smart gets the college football equivalent of opening a brand-new house to find a Ferrari in the garage.
Running back Nick Chubb is back and will lead a running back corps that includes Sony Michel and newcomer Elijah Holyfield. The quarterback is a problem, but Smart held on to the commitment of 5-star pro-style passer Jacob Eason, who should star from day one.
Defensively, the losses of linebackers Leonard Floyd, Jake Ganus and Jordan Jenkins hurt. But Lorenzo Carter is back, as is a veteran group up front and in the secondary.
The schedule isn't terrible. Smart will get Auburn, Tennessee and Georgia Tech at home, and the season opener against North Carolina is an hour down the road at the Georgia Dome. The road trip to Ole Miss will be tough, but the Bulldogs should be in the mix for the SEC East in 2016.
3. Tennessee Volunteers: 15-1
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Say it with me, and say it with feeling, "Tennessee isn't the offseason champion."
Despite claims to the contrary, Tennessee has been picked higher than fourth at SEC media days just one time since 2010 (last year) and hasn't been picked to win the division since 2005.
It returns one of the most dynamic backfields in the country, with dual-threat quarterback Joshua Dobbs, bruiser Jalen Hurd and ultra-versatile Alvin Kamara. Four starters up front should return, as well as potentially dangerous weapons outside, including Josh Malone and Preston Williams.
The defense is loaded with end Derek Barnett back, along with tackles Shy Tuttle and Kahlil McKenzie, linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin and corner Cam Sutton.
The Vols get Florida and Alabama at home, and get Virginia Tech in Bristol Motor Speedway early in the season when the Hokies are still figuring things out.
Head coach Butch Jones has improved upon his win-loss record every year on Rocky Top, and this is the year that should land his program in playoff contention.
2. Ole Miss Rebels: 9-1
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Much like Butch Jones at Tennessee, Ole Miss head coach Hugh Freeze has improved upon his record in each of his first four seasons at Ole Miss.
If he does it for a fifth straight year, he'll be in the playoff.
Quarterback Chad Kelly put up the third-most productive season in SEC history in 2015, gaining 4,542 yards and leading the program to a win in the Sugar Bowl. The wide receiving corps is loaded with weapons, including Quincy Adeboyejo, Damore'ea Stringfellow, Van Jefferson, Damarkus Lodge, and newcomers D.K. Metcalf, Tre Nixon and A.J. Brown. Greg Little should step in right away for former tackle Laremy Tunsil and anchor the left side of the line.
Defensively, the Rebels are still loaded up front with veterans such as Marquis Haynes and Breeland Speaks, added depth in the recruiting class and get back safety Tony Conner—one of the best in the game.
On top of that, Ole Miss gets Alabama in Oxford in Week 3, looking to make it three in a row over the Tide, and host Auburn, Georgia and Mississippi State. The season opener versus Florida State looms larger, but this team will be a title contender.
1. Alabama Crimson Tide: 6-1
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Alabama has earned the benefit of the doubt to, at the very worst, be in the title mix in late November.
The Crimson Tide will continue that trend in 2016.
Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley returns, along with ArDarius Stewart, tight end O.J. Howard, offensive tackle Cam Robinson, stud defensive end Jonathan Allen, a loaded front seven and virtually every key contributor in the secondary.
Yes, losing Derrick Henry hurts. But running backs Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris should be able to pick up the slack. For the third straight season, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has to find a quarterback. But first-year starters have won six of the last seven national titles. Whether it's Blake Barnett, David Cornwell, Cooper Bateman or somebody else, the Tide will be fine.
The season opener versus USC in Arlington, Texas, will be a challenge, as will the Week 3 road trip to Ole Miss and the rivalry game versus Tennessee in Knoxville on Oct. 15.
But this is Alabama, and Alabama contends. It's just that simple.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted. Statistics are courtesy of cfbstats.com, and recruiting information is courtesy of 247Sports.
Barrett Sallee is the lead SEC college football writer and national college football video analyst for Bleacher Report as well as a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM 83. Follow Barrett on Twitter @BarrettSallee.
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