Are Kevin Durant, OKC Thunder the NBA's Last Hope to Beat Golden State Warriors?
Having handily dispatched the Cleveland Cavaliers and San Antonio Spurs in January, the Golden State Warriors now turn their search for worthy foes toward Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
The Dubs and Thunder meet for the first time on Feb. 6, and if you jump past all of the caveats—Golden State might be the best team ever, picking its prime threat is like asking which show pony had the best chance of outracing Secretariat, etc.—you can make the case that KD and Oklahoma City have what it takes to give the Dubs the kind of run nobody else has.
Kevin Durant: Scheme Destroyer
Durant has always hurt the Warriors. His career scoring average against them is 30.3 points per game, his third-highest against a single team. And his 47 percent accuracy rate from long range is his best against any opponent, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Because Golden State has only been a league-devouring monster since last season, it's best to look at what Durant has done to the Warriors recently.
Now seems like a good time to mention the 30-point half he hung on the Dubs on Dec. 18, 2014.
He also hit the Warriors for 36 points on 14-of-18 shooting in a 12-point win less than one month later.
Part of the reason Durant presents problems for the Warriors is simple: He's the best offensive player in the league not named Stephen Curry, and everybody struggles to contain him.
"There are certain players in the NBA that I term 'X's and O's Busters,'" Stu Jackson, current NBA TV analyst and former NBA coach, general manager and league executive told Bleacher Report. "It doesn't matter what you do strategically against him. He's going to get to spots on the floor and get shots off regardless of what you do."
General brilliance aside, Durant is also uniquely equipped to succeed at the things Golden State forces its top-flight opponents to do. By staying home on shooters and switching aggressively, the Warriors often invite scorers to try to beat them in isolation.
That's a losing proposition for most players, as the Warriors have plenty of great isolation stoppers, and the play type itself is generally inefficient. Think back to the epic struggle the Dubs forced LeBron James into during the Finals. He got his numbers, but they were brutally tough to come by.
Durant is different. He ranks second among high-usage isolation scorers with an average of 1.07 points per play, according to tracking data provided to NBA.com. And he hasn't had much trouble getting buckets against two of the three Warriors players who are most likely to cover him, per B/R Insights:
| Andre Iguodala | 58/16 | 40% |
| Draymond Green | 44/50 | 76.9% |
| Harrison Barnes | 82/38 | 51.9% |
Andre Iguodala is among the league's best perimeter defenders, and he's had good success against Durant. But with such small samples, it's dangerous to argue it'll continue—especially with KD possessing so many unique physical advantages.
Durant is the kind of talent who can tear up any team's best-laid plans.
"He's a threat to anyone regardless of whether you switch on him or not," Jackson explained. "He's one of the few players that has ever played the game in the NBA that every time he touches the ball, he's open because of his athletic ability and his length."
Broader Concerns
If you pick around a little, Durant is not the only reason Oklahoma City could bother the Warriors.
Though going small is always risky against Golden State, the Thunder have the option of using KD and Serge Ibaka as a 4-5 combo. Athletically, that pairing matches up with the Warriors' vaunted Lineup of Death better than most.
Not only that, but Russell Westbrook also is going to make somebody work like crazy on defense. It might be Curry, or it might be Klay Thompson. But either way, one of the Dubs' two best shooters is likely to have some tired legs in the fourth quarter or even worse: be in foul trouble.
Even with intriguing lineup options and help from Westbrook, the Thunder will still have to beat Golden State on its terms. Isolation scoring is going to be a must, and though Durant is capable of taking over a game or two by himself, it's a lot harder to see that strategy working over a longer stretch like, say, a playoff series.
"If you don't move the ball side to side, if you don't insert the ball against [the Warriors] defense inside and then back out, and if you don't read situations they present by switching, you're going to have a very difficult time over the long haul beating them. To me, those have never been the strengths of the Oklahoma City Thunder."
All true. No team averages fewer passes per game than Oklahoma City this season, per NBA.com. And though the Thunder tend to get the most out of their limited ball movement (they rank third in the league in percentage of passes that lead to assists, free throws or secondary assists), it seems clear their half-court attack will depend on individual talent more than scheme.
There's also the pace issue.
Oklahoma City likes up-and-down chaos as much as anyone, and its athletic roster thrives on the run, ranking fourth in transition points per possession, according to NBA.com. But nobody does fractured and frantic better than the Warriors, who boast a league-best effective field-goal percentage of 65.6 percent in transition and rank ahead of OKC in points per transition play.
Just look at that. The Thunder don't want to go down that road.
The Search Continues
This is what Golden State has done to us. We scour the NBA landscape for interesting foes until the Warriors beat them (and us) back into boredom. We desperately want someone to make a game of it.
It's possible the Spurs will put up a better fight if Tim Duncan is healthy, and maybe the Cavaliers will find a new gear under Tyronn Lue. But given the information we have so far, saying either of those teams can beat the Dubs in a series requires some stretching. Both lost by at least 30 points in their most recent meetings with Golden State.
The Thunder are probably the third-best team in the league, and their raw talent makes them uniquely dangerous. There's only one Kevin Durant. Giving them a shot against Golden State—maybe even the best one—doesn't feel totally crazy.
But think about that new standard for finding the Warriors some competition: The best we can do is "it's not totally crazy."
That, in itself, is crazy.
So here we are, picking an athletically phenomenal, strategically suspect team with a singular superstar as the latest best bet to beat the Warriors. Even as gut instincts and analysis suggest, the Thunder don't have the ideal makeup and might play right into the Dubs' preferred style.
In looking for a challenger to Golden State, Durant might be as good as it gets.
Which means maybe we're searching for something that isn't there.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com. Accurate through games played Feb. 5.
All quotes obtained firsthand.
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