Broncos Look to Buck Trend as Offensively Challenged Super Bowl Winner

The chips appear to be stacked against the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. Not only is Denver taking on the Carolina Panthers, a 17-1 opponent that features the league's highest-scoring offense and most opportunistic defense, but precedents suggest a Super Bowl-winning Broncos team would be a major outlier. 

That's because in an age of offense, the Broncos aren't very offensive. 

Denver averaged 22.2 points per game in the regular season, which ranked 19th in the league. Only one Super Bowl winner in history (the 2008 Pittsburgh Steelers, who ranked 20th) has ever ranked that low, even when adjusting for seasons in which the NFL possessed fewer teams. 

Team	Year	Rank	Teams
Steelers	2008	20th	32
Broncos	2015	19th	32
Buccaneers	2002	18th	32
Packers	1967	9th	16
Giants	1990	15th	28
Giants	2007	14th	32
Ravens	2000	14th	31

The 2015 Broncos have something important in common with the '08 Steelers and '02 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: All three ranked No. 1 in the league defensively. But unlike Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and the '90 New York Giants, who ranked second in total defense, the Broncos did not post the league's lowest points-against total during the regular season.

On Sunday, they'll look to become the first team of the modern era (post-1970 merger) to win the Super Bowl despite ranking below the league median in scoring and not ranking first in points against. 

Put simply: In terms of scoring, no modern-day Super Bowl winner has ever been below average on offense without ranking first on defense. 

The Broncos aren't trending well in this regard, either. They averaged 24.0 points per game during the first half of the regular season, but that number has dropped to 20.6 ever since (including two playoff games). 

Early in the season, that offense benefited from big plays on the other side of the ball. Denver was one of four teams to score more than five touchdowns on defense or special teams, with five of their six non-offensive touchdowns coming in the first eight games of the year but only one coming in the last 10 games. 

Team	Total
49ers	23
Cowboys	24
Browns	25
Rams	27
Ravens	29
Broncos	32
Colts	32
Bears	33

NFL teams averaged 3.3 non-offensive touchdowns this season. Had the Broncos defense and special teams been at the league average in scoring, they'd have ranked just outside of the bottom 10 in the league with 21.0 points per game.

And considering the Steelers had only three non-offensive touchdowns in 2008, it might actually be fair to conclude that in terms of sheer point production, the Denver offense is vying to be the worst to ever win a Super Bowl. 

What's more, the majority of Super Bowl winners have been led by Pro Bowl quarterbacks—something Peyton Manning was not in 2015. Altogether, 32 of the first 49 Super Bowls were won by a quarterback who was named to the Pro Bowl, while Manning will look to become just the eighth non-Pro Bowl pivot to accomplish that feat in a 25-year span. 

Is the Denver defense good enough to carry the Broncos to a championship despite mediocre offensive results and so-so quarterback play? It's possible. But consider the precedents.

The '08 Steelers didn't have a high-scoring offense or a Pro Bowl quarterback, but they still averaged 28.3 points per game during their playoff run that year. 

The Broncos haven't reached that point total once since Week 12. 

The '12 Baltimore Ravens ranked "only" 10th in terms of regular-season points per game and didn't have a Pro Bowl quarterback, but they averaged 31.0 points per game in the 2012 playoffs. 

The Denver offense didn't reach that total in a single game this season. 

The '02 Bucs had a Pro Bowl quarterback in Brad Johnson, who had a much better season than many would have you believe. And while Tampa Bay ranked only 18th in scoring during the regular season, Johnson and Co. averaged 35.3 points per game in the postseason. 

The Broncos were one of 11 teams that failed to score 28 points in at least 13 of their 16 regular-season games and were one of three teams that never scored 32 or more points all year.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have scored 32 or more points—something only two teams have done more than five times—on a league-high nine occasions. 

Carolina's star-studded defense led the NFL with 39 takeaways and ranked second to Denver in terms of yards per play allowed. But the primary reason why the Panthers are a favorite Sunday by nearly a touchdown, per Odds Shark, is the fact they led the league in scoring. 

In recent years, Super Bowl winners have generally been better on offense than on defense. 

Category	Offense	Defense
Average rank	9th	11th
Top-10 ranking	8	4
Bottom-10 ranking	0	2

So yeah, Manning and the Broncos have their work cut out for them. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon