Early Predictions for SEC Football's 2016 Stat Leaders
A linebacker will not lead the Southeastern Conference in tackles, a cornerback won’t top the league in pickoffs and the newly established single-season rushing record might not last long.
There are still more than 200 days until the start of the 2016 college football season, and a lot of players will need time to adjust to the numerous new coaches and coordinators, but the SEC already has some clear front-runners when it comes to who will eventually lead the league in its individual statistical categories.
Granted, a few of them will be obvious, but if nothing these are the established players everyone else will try to top.
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Rushing
Running back is one of those positions where an incoming player can make an immediate impact, but the SEC is already solid at that position.
The SEC’s leading returning rusher from 2014 was Georgia’s Nick Chubb, who was one of only two running backs to average more than 100 yards per game.
Of the SEC’s top 15 rushers in 2014, quarterbacks included, nine returned the following season. Only five were in the top 15 again, with Chubb and Jonathan Williams of Arkansas both suffering season-ending injuries.
Alabama ball-carrier Derrick Henry was the league’s first 2,000-yard rusher, and LSU’s Leonard Fournette almost certainly would have joined him had the Tigers’ season opener not been cancelled due to inclement weather.
Even though he’ll have two new offensive tackles blocking for him in 2016, look for LSU to do whatever is necessary to make sure that Fournette tops Henry’s 2,061 yards next season.
“Just in the back of my mind, just knowing what we have, no doubt we—to me we have the most athletes of any college, and just come out next year firing,” Fournette said during his postgame press conference at the Texas Bowl, where had had 212 rushing yards and five total touchdowns against Texas Tech.
Passing
The NCAA uses efficiency rating to determine its passing champion, and the top SEC quarterback over the last two years will surprise a lot of fans: Alabama’s Blake Sims in 2014 and Arkansas’ Brandon Allen this past season.
Ole Miss quarterback Chad Kelly will be the top returning player, and second on that list is Georgia's Greyson Lambert, who had much better numbers in nonconference play but will be in a quarterback competition under new head coach Kirby Smart.
The player who may improve the most is Tennessee’s Joshua Dobbs, but that’s easier said than done. Although Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott clearly improved as a passer this past season, his rating was essentially the same (151.7 in 2014, 151.0 in 2015).
The SEC’s reputation for not having top quarterbacks will likely continue for at least another year as some of the new quarterbacks develop. Kelly is the player to beat, though, and he’ll have to lead an offense that has to replace nearly every other starter.
Receiving
No one came close to matching Amari Cooper’s numbers from 2014 (8.86 catches per game, 123.4 yards), but Texas A&M’s Christian Kirk and Alabama’s Calvin Ridley both posted very strong numbers during their respective first seasons. Florida’s Antonio Callaway also lead the league in yards per catch (19.4).
Mississippi State’s Fred Ross will return as the SEC’s reigning receptions-per-game king, yet won’t have Prescott or receiving partner De’Runnya Wilson, who stretched the field. He’ll also go from being one of the smallest receivers on the Bulldogs roster to the biggest, which will likely mean different assignments.
The only returning player to be listed in the top 15 in receptions in both 2014 and 2015 was Texas A&M’s Josh Reynolds, even through he had eight fewer touchdowns this past season. He and Kirk will likely be the league’s top tandem again in 2016, with the former the favorite to lead the SEC statistically.
Tackles
There are two names in particular to keep an eye on in 2016. Both are already established among the SEC’s league leaders, yet neither will play linebacker.
Texas A&M safety Armani Watts was second with 9.7 tackles per game and will have a whole year under his belt in coordinator John Chavis’ scheme.
Meanwhile, right behind him in 2015 was South Carolina’s Skai Moore with 9.3. He’s been the Gamecocks' leading tackler the last three seasons while playing linebacker, but new head coach Will Muschamp will increase his responsibilities and use him some at safety.
“When we’re in our regular package, he may be able to play some safety and be able to increase his role as far as playing in space,” Muschamp told the State's Josh Kendall. “He’s got a pretty wide skill set.”
With South Carolina’s offense expected to be poor, Moore could end up making a lot of tackles next season.
Sacks
This is the easiest prediction to make, as Texas A&M defensive end Myles Garrett was first in the SEC this past season (12.5) after finishing second the year before (11.5).
His biggest competition figures to come from Alabama, which led the nation in sacks in 2015. Defensive lineman Jonathan Allen notched 12, but he won’t have Jarran Reed and A’Shawn Robinson drawing double-teams any more. The real player to watch is Tim Williams, who had 10.5 sacks as a specialist and hopes to land a full-time role as an outside linebacker.
Ole Miss defensive end Marquis Haynes tallied 17.5 sacks during his first two seasons while playing alongside Robert Nkemdiche. Like everyone else, though, he’ll be hard-pressed to top Garrett, an elite athlete who could head to the NFL as a top pick in the 2017 draft with another strong season.
Interceptions
Pickoffs are extremely difficult to forecast because offenses will not challenge top defensive backs, especially once they know a player is adept at creating turnovers.
A perfect example is Auburn’s Jonathan Jones. In 2014, he had six interceptions and tied for the league lead with 18 passes broken up. This past season, though, he made just one interception and broke up 13 passes.
Nevertheless, the player to watch is Alabama strong safety Eddie Jackson, who this past year made the move from cornerback. He made six interceptions in 2015, which tied Georgia’s Dominick Sanders for the league lead, and returned two for touchdowns.
Opponents won’t be able to shy away from Jackson, though, because the rest of the Crimson Tide secondary should be a strength next season; Alabama used three freshmen at times in 2015—Marlon Humphrey (redshirt), Minkah Fitzpatrick and Ronnie Harrison—and they are only going to get better.
Clemson went after them during the national championship game, but Harrison knocked away a pass in the end zone and Humphrey received the key onside kick. The defensive MVP, though, was Jackson.
"I just wanted to come out there and help my team win a national championship," Jackson said. "That was the only thing on my mind. Like MVP wasn't on my mind at all to be honest. Just like Coach Saban says, dominate your box and do your job, so that's what I came out focused on."
Alabama led the league with 19 interceptions, four more than any other team (Ole Miss, 15), and is a solid bet to so again in 2016.
Quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
Christopher Walsh is a lead SEC college football writer. Follow Christopher on Twitter @WritingWalsh.
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