Realistic Expectations for Ferrari in 2016 Formula 1 Season
The problem with high expectations is that they have a nasty habit of breeding disappointment.
Whenever you set yourself a clear, defined aim in any given task, it is human nature to become obsessed with meeting that goal, even to the extent where the pressure of those expectations can sometimes become all-consuming and ultimately counterproductive, distorting your sense of perspective.
Even if you fall just slightly short of your intended target, there is a tendency to rue what you didn't achieve rather than what you did; to torture yourself with those missed opportunities, rather than reflecting on the chances you did take.
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To stare at the long road ahead, rather than celebrating how far you've come.
That, in many ways, was the true beauty of Ferrari's resurgence in the 2015 Formula One season.
After chewing up and spitting out two different team principals—not to mention a long-serving president and countless other high-profile staff members—over the course of the team's first winless season in two decades in 2014, Ferrari entered last year with no expectations whatsoever.
The pre-season target of two grand prix wins set by Maurizio Arrivabene, according to ESPN F1's Nate Saunders, felt like a number plucked from thin air as this new-look team, cleansed from five years of underachievement with Fernando Alonso, were afforded the freedom to express themselves once more.
With a point to prove, but crucially without the overwhelming burden normally associated with a Ferrari team, they could rely on adventurous, aggressive thinking to rediscover the winning habit.
On the days it worked—most memorably Sebastian Vettel's three assured victories in Malaysia, Hungary and Singapore—Ferrari were a team reborn, revelling in the simple act of going motor racing again.
And when it didn't? When Seb had several off-track detours in Bahrain? When his tyre blew up in the closing laps at Spa? When both Ferraris retired in Mexico? It didn't really matter.
Just look at the results from 2014. Just look at how far they'd come.
In exceeding expectations so impressively last season, though, Ferrari have ensured more will be expected of them in 2016 than at any stage since their most recent championship triumph in 2008.
Yet rather than managing those expectations as effectively as they did in 2015, the team appear to be believing their own hype in the hope of a potential season-long battle with Mercedes.
At the penultimate round of 2015 in Brazil, where Vettel and team-mate Kimi Raikkonen were the only cars not to be lapped by Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton (but still finished some distance behind), Arrivabene told Motorsport.com's Jonathan Noble how Ferrari "must be in front" of their rivals in 2016.
A fortnight later, at the Abu Dhabi GP, Vettel told Motorsport.com's Jamie Klein how Ferrari, tired of playing the "chaser," are determined to emerge as F1's "dominant force," winning not on the occasions Mercedes go missing but with the unblemished style he did during his four consecutive title successes with Red Bull.
And then there was Sergio Marchionne, the president, who warned his colleagues to be utterly "terrified" of failure in 2016, according to Noble.
It was a dangerous comment, not least because Arrivabene's biggest triumph in 2015 was removing the fear of failure that had smothered the Prancing Horse for so long, but it revealed much about Ferrari's confidence—their certainty—ahead of the upcoming season.
As technical expert Craig Scarborough told The Racer's Edge YouTube channel, Ferrari's ability to remain reasonably close to Mercedes throughout last season was a promising indication that they are now completely comfortable with the V6 turbo regulations.
Shell's claim that it was responsible for 25 per cent of the team's 2015 "performance gain"—supposedly worth 0.5 seconds per lap and 30 seconds over a race distance—was debatable but offered more evidence that Ferrari are fully aware of the demands of the current era and the importance of a strong bond between teams and fuel suppliers.
Perhaps Ferrari's biggest compliment in 2015 came from Toto Wolff, the Mercedes team boss, who told Noble that the world champions had been forced into considering an innovative approach with their 2016 car simply to maintain their status as F1's leading team.
While it is possible that Ferrari have succeeded in spooking Mercedes down the wrong development path, the team—who shared a wind-tunnel program with the new Haas team in 2015, according to Motor Sport Magazine's Mark Hughes—can also make significant gains with their own chassis this season.
James Allison, the technical director, is the master of creating seven-out-of-10 cars which perform excellently at most circuits in most conditions and exceptionally at other venues. Yet Ferrari's 2015 car was only rated as the "fourth- or fifth-best chassis" on the grid behind those of Mercedes, Red Bull, Toro Rosso and (arguably) McLaren-Honda, according to BBC Sport's Andrew Benson.
During last year, Allison discussed a number of areas for improvement, telling Sky Sports' William Esler how Ferrari considered reverting to push-rod suspension before prioritising other parts of the car, and revealing the position of the front bulkhead had harmed their pursuit of the short-nose concept adopted by their competitors, as noted by ESPN F1's Laurence Edmondson.
Should Ferrari, now able to concentrate more on the details than the fundamentals, make those tweaks to the chassis and maintain their progress with the engine, the stage may be set for Vettel—with an entire team built around him—to challenge Hamilton and Rosberg.
Yet can we really expect Ferrari, who have won just 15 grands prix in the last seven seasons and set just one dry-weather pole position in five years, to fight head-to-head with a team who have won two drivers' and constructors' titles, 32 of a possible 38 races and set all but two poles since the beginning of 2014?
Are they strong and shrewd enough, both on and off the track, to threaten a team as formidable, consistent and diligent as Mercedes?
As noted last December, there was a sense that Ferrari were relying slightly more on their bravado than their brains come the end of last season, and, despite Marchionne's scaremongering, there would be no shame in finishing second-best to a team of Mercedes' calibre again this season.
Although Vettel should be waiting to pounce in the drivers' championship, particularly if Hamilton and Rosberg frequently take points away from each other, merely doubling his 2015 victory tally would resemble good progress ahead of bigger and better things in the coming years.
Hoping for the best but expecting relatively little will, much like last year, be the key to Ferrari's 2016.
And if that isn't enough? Just look at how far they've come.
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