Grading Every Power 5 Conference's Quarterback Situation for 2016
Quarterback play shapes the narrative of teams and conferences.
For all the talk of SEC dominance, there has always been a question under center. Next year more than most, people from outside the region will use the state of SEC quarterbacks to argue against the conference.
But how does the SEC actually stack up with its peers? And which of those peers carries the banner into next season?
To answer those questions, I've projected the winner of each Power Five quarterback battle, then sorted those projected winners into categories. From there, I gave each conference a grade based on how it should feel about its quarterbacks.
Both of those required subjective reasoning, so I anticipate disagreement. Just know that I do not hate your conference. I used both college production and high school recruiting rankings to inform my decisions, but in the end, these grades came down to gut feelings.
Let me know where you disagree!
5. Big Ten
1 of 5
Alpha Dog
- J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
Entrenched Starters
- Tommy Armstrong, Nebraska
- C.J. Beathard, Iowa
- David Blough, Purdue
- Mitch Leidner, Minnesota
- Wes Lunt, Illinois
- Clayton Thorson, Northwestern
Boom or Bust
- Tyler O'Connor, Michigan State
- John O'Korn, Michigan
- Tommy Stevens, Penn State
Needs Work
- Zander Diamont, Indiana
- Perry Hills, Maryland
- Bart Houston, Wisconsin
- Chris Laviano, Rutgers
The Big Ten takes a hit after losing Christian Hackenberg, Connor Cook, Cardale Jones, Nate Sudfeld and even Joel Stave. The only star returning is J.T. Barrett, who will likely earn unanimous All-Big Ten preseason first-team honors, and it's hard to decide which quarterback will make the second team—maybe C.J. Beathard?
Ohio State's three biggest threats—Michigan, Michigan State and Penn State—have potential breakouts under center. Each will wage quarterback battles this offseason, but Tyler O'Connor actually won in Columbus last season, John O'Korn started and played well as a freshman at Houston and Tommy Stevens, while not a blue-chip recruit, was called "the future of Penn State football" by Bleacher Report's Ben Axelrod last offseason.
Regardless, this is still a rebuilding year.
Grade: C
4. SEC
2 of 5
Alpha Dogs
- Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee
- Chad Kelly, Ole Miss
Entrenched Starters
- Brandon Harris, LSU
Boom or Bust
- Drew Barker, Kentucky
- Blake Barnett, Alabama
- Jacob Eason, Georgia
- Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State
- Trevor Knight, Texas A&M
- Ricky Town, Arkansas
Needs Work
- Luke Del Rio, Florida
- Jeremy Johnson, Auburn
- Maty Mauk, Missouri
- Perry Orth, South Carolina
- Kyle Shurmur, Vanderbilt
It's barren atop the SEC's quarterback hierarchy. Only Tennessee and Ole Miss feel great about their current situations.
Despite that, there's potential all over this conference. Blake Barnett, Jacob Eason and Ricky Town were huge recruits, Drew Barker has shown flashes, Trevor Knight has won a Sugar Bowl over Alabama and Maty Mauk—if he ever puts the pieces back together—has contributed to two SEC East titles.
There's not much to feel great about, but there's plenty about which to feel optimistic. Cautiously optimistic, sure. But optimistic.
Grade: C+
3. Pac-12
3 of 5
Alpha Dogs
- Luke Falk, Washington State
- Josh Rosen, UCLA
Entrenched Starters
- Jake Browning, Washington
- Sefo Liufau, Colorado
- Anu Solomon, Arizona
Boom or Bust
- Max Browne, USC
- Keller Chryst, Stanford
- Darell Garretson, Oregon State
- Bryce Perkins, Arizona State
- Dakota Prukop, Oregon
- Troy Williams, Utah
Needs Work
- Chase Forrest, California
The Pac-12 loses quality at the top, where Jared Goff leaves Cal, Kevin Hogan leaves Stanford and Cody Kessler leaves USC.
That's a lot of high-profile losses to rebound from, but the young guns can steer the ship. Luke Falk is the next great Mike Leach quarterback, and Josh Rosen—The Rosen One—had one of the best true freshman seasons in recent memory.
Also off a great true freshman season, Jake Browning has things looking up at Washington. He and Anu Solomon form a modest second tier, and it's safe to assume at least a couple of these high-upside prospects—Max Browne, Keller Chryst, Dakota Prukop, et al.—will hit and become all-conference candidates as soon as next season.
The Pac-12 takes a step back under center, but it's a smaller step than one might realize. The kids will be all right.
Grade: B
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2. ACC
4 of 5
Alpha Dogs
- Brad Kaaya, Miami (FL)
- Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Entrenched Starters
- Lamar Jackson, Louisville
- Matt Johns, Virginia
- Nate Peterman, Pittsburgh
- Thomas Sirk, Duke
- Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech
Boom or Bust
- Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech
- Deondre Francois, Florida State
- Patrick Towles, Boston College
- Mitch Trubisky, North Carolina
Needs Work
- Eric Dungey, Syracuse
- Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest
- Jalan McClendon, North Carolina State
What's great about the ACC is depth. Deshaun Watson looks like the Heisman Trophy favorite, and Brad Kaaya will likely join him as a first-round draft pick, but even the lower tiers contain much to get excited about.
Justin Thomas and Lamar Jackson are two of the five best running quarterbacks in the country. Deondre Francois, if he beats out Sean Maguire, has the pedigree and supporting cast to post Jameis Winston-like numbers. Jerod Evans is the highest-rated JUCO quarterback since Zach Mettenberger in 2011.
And those are just the guys with giant upside. There's also steady starters such as Matt Johns and Nate Peterman, along with semi-proven commodities like Patrick Towles and Mitch Trubisky.
The bottom weighs down the top, but there is still a lot to feel good about.
Grade: A-
1. Big 12
5 of 5
Alpha Dogs
- Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech
- Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
- Seth Russell, Baylor
Entrenched Starters
- Skyler Howard, West Virginia
- Joel Lanning, Iowa State
- Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State
- Ryan Willis, Kansas
Boom or Bust
- Jerrod Heard, Texas
- Kenny Hill, TCU
Needs Work
- Joe Hubener, Kansas State
Thirty percent of the Big 12 falls under "Alpha Dogs." No other conference had more than 17 percent. Baker Mayfield and Seth Russell will open the year as Heisman contenders, and Patrick Mahomes, on pure talent, might actually be the best of the bunch.
On the next tier, there's plenty to work with, too. Mason Rudolph played well as a sophomore and could easily plateau-hop as a junior. Skyler Howard closed last season on a high note against Arizona State. Ryan Willis and Joel Lanning play for the two worst teams in the conference, but even they showed hints of quality in 2015.
And then you get to the boom-or-bust types. The ceiling on each guy is huge. Jerrod Heard is a high school football legend who, despite needing to work on his arm, has the legs and innate playmaking skills to become a reliable starter. Kenny Hill spent a month as the 2014 Heisman front-runner before collapsing and then leaving Texas A&M.
"He’s done a great job," TCU co-offensive coordinator Doug Meacham said of Hill before the Alamo Bowl, per Suzanne Halliburton of the Austin American-Statesman. "I think coach (Gary) Patterson has seen him more at his end with the scout team. Every week, Coach Patterson brags how well he’s done. He takes it very seriously. He prepares with stuff we have him do during the week. He does a good job. He’s really excited."
If he keeps that up, there's no telling how good this conference can be—or at least how good this conference can be on offense.
Grade: A
Note: All recruiting info refers to 247Sports' composite rankings.
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