Way-Too-Early 2016 Big 12 Football Power Rankings
The Big 12 finally made it into the College Football Playoff in 2015, though the appearance was short-lived. Despite being one of the hottest teams in college football in November, Oklahoma fell to No. 1 Clemson, 37-17, in the Orange Bowl.
However, the Sooners are looking to reload and get back to the playoff in 2016-17. Do head coach Bob Stoops and Co. have what it takes to win yet another conference championship and finish in the top four? Let's take a peek at the way-too-early power rankings for the Big 12 based on returning starters and talent, as well as trajectory.
10. Kansas
1 of 10
For all the bowl games major college football has, you'd think there would be one for winless Central Florida and Kansas. Someone has to get a win, right?
Jokes aside, there was nothing fun about Kansas' 2015 season. Jayhawks head coach David Beaty is an eternal optimist, and it's hard not to gravitate toward his infectious personality, but he has a long road ahead of him. Put simply, he inherited an awful situation.
He does have a quarterback, though: freshman Ryan Willis. In time, Willis should blossom into a star for this new wide-open offense. There just isn't a lot of talent around him. Expect Beaty to play a lot of young guys next season. This will be brutal since the round-robin Big 12 schedule affords no breaks, but this team will grow up quickly.
9. Iowa State
2 of 10
Matt Campbell was a splash hire for Iowa State, so 2016 is already off to a great start. How much of an impact can the first-year successor to Paul Rhoads make?
There's talent on the roster. Mike Warren was one of the Big 12's leading running backs, and receiver Allen Lazard is a physical freak who led the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Quarterback Joel Lanning is a better runner at this point in his game, but he has room to grow.
In short, there's no reason why the Cyclones can't score some points. It'll be the defense that needs retooling. If this unit can't stop opposing offenses, then it needs takeaways, and the Cyclones were dead last in the Big 12 this past season in that category (and turnover margin).
Flipping that turnover margin should be Campbell's No. 1 priority. Do that, and Iowa State has the capability of going from three wins to five or six right away.
8. Texas
3 of 10
Oh, boy. Ah, geez.
By now, you know Texas head coach Charlie Strong really needs to get things turned around in Austin. Like, in the worst way. The Longhorns are coming off their second straight losing season, and the defense—Strong's calling card—was historically bad by the program's standards.
However, this team was terribly young in 2015 and will be more experienced next season. The key is the arrival of new offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert from Tulsa. In all likelihood, Gilbert has one season to turn things around and undo the mess that the Shawn Watson/Joe Wickline experiment created. In short, Texas cannot afford to not go bowling.
"Don't know if Charlie sees the fourth year on his contract if that's the case," Chuck Carlton of the Dallas Morning News opined. "He does have strong backing from the administration and there are a lot of things to like in how he operates. But another losing record—which would be the third straight in Austin—won't play well with donors or fans."
If there's a silver lining, it's that Texas may be closer to turning a corner than most realize. This past year, eight points were all that separated Texas from an eight-win season.
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7. Texas Tech
4 of 10
Since head coach Kliff Kingsbury took over Texas Tech in 2013, the Red Raiders have generally been right around the middle-to-lower tier in the conference standings. Kingsbury hasn't been able to land that signature win in Big 12 play—yet—but he has the quarterback (Patrick Mahomes II) to compete with anybody in the league.
The question, as usual, is the defense. The Red Raiders finished with the 127th-worst run defense in college football. There are 128 Football Bowl Subdivision teams. Additionally, Texas Tech finished 99th in the country in penalty yards per game.
Tech has to replace almost its entire defensive and offensive lines, a typically bad combination. Plus, its leading rusher (DeAndre Washington) and receiver (Jakeem Grant) are gone. The good news is the front half of the schedule is the easier part (though it still features Arizona State in nonconference play and a road trip to Kansas State). This should allow some time for Tech's new-look offense to come together.
6. Kansas State
5 of 10
Kansas State was bound to take a step back in 2015. That head coach Bill Snyder got the Wildcats to a bowl game, once again, shows just how much of a wizard he is.
K-State should be better in '16. The defense loses cornerback/return specialist Morgan Burns and fellow defensive back Danzel McDaniel, but the core group returns. The key will be replacing four seniors from the offensive line, including All-Big 12 first-team selection Cody Whitehair.
Snyder will be back for at least one more season, according to an announcement from the school:
"Following our bowl game against Arkansas, I had a chance to visit with my family, and they collectively wanted me to do what I wanted to do and none were against my decision to return as long as I am having a positive impact on the young people in our program, my health is in order and as long as I am wanted by the University and the wonderful Kansas State fan base.
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As long as Snyder's on the sidelines, K-State is going to be just fine.
5. West Virginia
6 of 10
West Virginia finds itself in a curious situation for 2016. A Cactus Bowl win over Arizona State alleviates some of the criticism of head coach Dana Holgorsen, but the sixth-year coach is still under some pressure. The Mountaineers haven't won more than seven regular-season games since joining the Big 12, and quarterback development has been a concern.
Signal-caller Skyler Howard did have an exceptional bowl game, though, throwing for 532 yards and five touchdowns. More consistency from Howard in '16 would go a long way in helping the Mountaineers offense thrive. Young receivers such as Jovon Durante and Shelton Gibson need to keep growing, too.
Defensively, West Virginia will miss the best group it's had in years under Holgorsen, but edge-rusher and All-Name selection Noble Nwachukwu will be back. Ultimately, if Howard continues to progress as a passer, the Mountaineers should be able to get eight or nine wins. Plus, the schedule won't be nearly as concentrated as '15 when WVU had Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU in consecutive weeks.
4. TCU
7 of 10
If TCU head coach Gary Patterson can win 11 games with a beat-up football team, the Frogs should without a doubt be back near the top of the Big 12 standings next season. Yes, this team will miss quarterback Trevone Boykin and wide receiver Josh Doctson, but there are pieces in place for TCU to pick up where it left off.
One has to think Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill will be an early favorite to replace Boykin at quarterback, and KaVontae Turpin is paving his own way to become TCU's Tavon Austin/Jakeem Grant.
The litmus test for the Frogs, especially for the defense, will be a Sept. 10 game against Arkansas. A rash of injuries meant TCU had to play a lot of young guys in '15, and now that unit will be far more experienced heading into next year.
TCU will miss its potent offensive playmakers, but Patterson and this coaching staff have built the program to the point where it's ready to reload.
3. Oklahoma State
8 of 10
Oklahoma State wasn't ready at all for the Sugar Bowl against Ole Miss, but the sour end to the '15 season shouldn't detract from what the Cowboys have coming back.
Which is to say, almost everybody.
The Pokes will miss edge-rusher Emmanuel Ogbah (13 sacks), but the core group is coming back. The same can be said for the offense. Quarterback Mason Rudolph looks to make this team his own because of the departure of fellow signal-caller/running threat J.W. Walsh. But Rudolph has all the physical tools to run this offense, and he'll have his best receiver, James Washington.
The important piece that needs to improve is the running game. The Pokes finished ninth in the Big 12 in rushing offense and need at least the threat of the ground game to create balance.
2. Baylor
9 of 10
If Baylor can win a bowl game without a quarterback—not only that but also put up 645 yards rushing—that should tell you everything you need to know about what head coach Art Briles can do.
The good news for the Bears is quarterback Seth Russell will be back next season and better than ever. The senior-to-be accounted for 35 touchdowns before suffering a season-ending neck injury against Iowa State. While the departure of Biletnikoff Award winner Corey Coleman is a downer, Baylor never lacks explosive playmakers.
The concern for the Bears is what made them so good this year: playmakers in the trenches. Nose tackle Andrew Billings, the best player on the team, is leaving for the NFL draft, and most of the offensive line has to be replaced. Briles deserves the benefit of the doubt here, but how Baylor performs in the trenches will be the area to watch.
1. Oklahoma
10 of 10
Oklahoma's national championship hopes were blown up thanks to the Orange Bowl loss to Clemson, but the Sooners return in 2016 with a lot of hope.
Nearly the entire offense is back, though the losses of center Ty Darlington and receiver Sterling Shepard cannot go unstated. It's the defense that has to reload. Pass-rushers Eric Striker and Charles Tapper are gone, as well as tackling machine Dominique Alexander at linebacker. The secondary loses its best corner, Zack Sanchez, but has plenty of exciting talent with guys such as Steven Parker and Ahmad Thomas.
The early part of the season will tell us if Oklahoma is ready to recapture its Big 12 title and place among college football's elite. Nonconference games against Houston (Sept. 3) and Ohio State (Sept. 17) are as tough as they come.
Head coach Bob Stoops reinvented himself this past year by shuffling the coaching staff and going in a new direction on offense. Those changes should pay dividends beyond one year.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
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