Which New College Football Coaches Will Have Most Success in 2016?
One of the wildest coaching carousels in recent memory is slowly making its way to a stop, as 27 of the 128 FBS programs in college football hired new coaches this offseason.
Only three of the new hires—USC's Clay Helton, Illinois' Bill Cubit and Minnesota's Tracy Claeys—were interim head coaches who got promoted to the full-time job. For the other two dozen, they're in brand-new situations for 2016.
Now that a champion has been crowned for 2015 and the hype for 2016 is already building, let's project which of these new head coaches could have the most success later this year.
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Last season, Jim Harbaugh brought a 10-win season along with his gigantic spotlight to Michigan, and Tom Herman became an overnight sensation with his 13-1 campaign at Houston.
Who could be the Harbaugh or the Herman of 2016? Here is a rundown of all 24 brand-new FBS coaches, along with five strong candidates for success based on their inherited talent (including 2015 F/+ rating from Football Outsiders), past experience and upcoming schedules.
| Bowling Green | Mike Jinks | 25 | 10-4 | ✕ |
| BYU | Kalani Sitake | 35 | 9-4 | ✕ |
| East Carolina | Scottie Montgomery | 73 | 5-7 | ✕ |
| Georgia | Kirby Smart | 30 | 10-3 | ✕ |
| Georgia Southern | Tyson Summers | 48 | 9-4 | ✕ |
| Hawaii | Nick Rolovich | 120 | 3-10 | ✕ |
| Iowa State | Matt Campbell | 79 | 3-9 | ✓ |
| Maryland | D.J. Durkin | 76 | 3-9 | (bowl game) |
| Memphis | Mike Norvell | 41 | 9-4 | ✕ |
| Miami | Mark Richt | 62 | 8-5 | ✓ |
| Missouri | Barry Odom | 75 | 5-7 | ✕ |
| North Texas | Seth Littrell | 126 | 1-11 | ✕ |
| Rutgers | Chris Ash | 101 | 4-8 | ✕ |
| South Carolina | Will Muschamp | 88 | 3-9 | ✓ |
| Syracuse | Dino Babers | 85 | 4-8 | ✓ |
| Toledo | Jason Candle | 20 | 10-2 | (bowl game) |
| Tulane | Willie Fritz | 119 | 3-9 | ✓ |
| UCF | Scott Frost | 128 | 0-12 | ✕ |
| UL-Monroe | Matt Viator | 121 | 2-11 | (FCS) |
| UTSA | Frank Wilson | 111 | 3-9 | ✕ |
| Virginia | Bronco Mendenhall | 78 | 4-8 | ✓ |
| Virginia Tech | Justin Fuente | 59 | 7-6 | ✓ |
Kirby Smart (Georgia)
Fresh off winning another national championship as the defensive coordinator at Alabama, Kirby Smart is back to full-time work as the new head coach at Georgia this week.
And while Smart is about to face the pressures of being the head man for the first time at a high-profile program that fired its longtime coach for not winning championships, he's in a great situation for success.
Georgia's defense will have to replace a good bit of talent up front—including pass-rushing menace Leonard Floyd—but the Bulldogs' previous staff recruited exceptionally well on the defensive line in the last few cycles. Smart will also inherit the bulk of a young secondary that did nothing but lead the nation in pass defense last season, per cfbstats.com.
The offensive side of the ball will be a different challenge, but Smart immediately surrounded himself with good hires in offensive coordinator Jim Chaney and offensive line coach Sam Pittman.
"You simply couldn't have drawn up a better hire for Smart," Bleacher Report's Barrett Sallee wrote last month. "The combination of Chaney and Pittman will keep Georgia true to its pro-style roots while providing the ability to open things up when appropriate."
Georgia will be able to rely on the dynamic running combination of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel, and 5-star quarterback Jacob Eason, per 247Sports, will immediately push for the starting job in Athens. If Pittman can continue his offensive line success from Arkansas with a rebuilding unit at Georgia, the offense should be in fine shape for 2016.
The schedule is also favorable for Smart in his first year. Georgia will have to face North Carolina at the Georgia Dome in Week 1 and head to Ole Miss several weeks later, but the Bulldogs will get their biggest competition for the SEC East—Tennessee—at home in 2016.
If some pieces on the depth chart fall into place, Georgia has all the talent to compete for an SEC East title in Smart's first season. It may be too much to expect a division crown this early, but don't be surprised if it happens.
Mark Richt (Miami)
The man Smart replaced at Georgia, Mark Richt, is now down at Miami. The consistent head coach will try to restore the swagger back to his alma mater, and he has a lot to work with in his first year with the Hurricanes.
Miami looked like a different team following Al Golden's firing last season. After the 58-0 beatdown at the hands of Clemson that sealed Golden's fate, the Hurricanes went 4-2 to finish the season.
Their only losses came to division champion North Carolina and Washington State—with the latter coming in a snowstorm at the Sun Bowl.
Miami should return most of the starters from both the offense and the defense. Brad Kaaya will be back after a strong sophomore campaign, No. 2 receiver Stacy Coley is staying in school, and the one-two punch of Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton out of the backfield will be a huge bonus.
According to Matt Porter of the Palm Beach Post, all 10 of the offensive linemen who logged playing time for the Hurricanes will be back.
New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz can build around Corn Elder in the secondary and a good amount of returning talent across the defensive front.
The Hurricanes avoid Clemson in cross-divisional ACC play this season and get Florida State at home. A trip to Notre Dame will be tough, but the rest of the schedule seems manageable for Miami.
Miami has the potential to be a Top 25 team from the opening kickoff of the season thanks to Richt's arrival and the momentum of a stronger ending to 2015. Richt could get the talented 'Canes to play to their full potential early.
Justin Fuente (Virginia Tech)
Staying in the ACC Coastal, it's a new era at Virginia Tech after legendary head coach Frank Beamer's retirement.
The new blood in Blacksburg is Justin Fuente, who orchestrated an amazing turnaround at Memphis in just four seasons. Instead of a struggling program, though, Fuente is stepping into a situation where the desire is to get over the seven- or eight-win hump.
Fuente inherits one of college football's best defensive coordinators in Bud Foster. The Hokies have some major pieces to replace from their 2015 defense, but there isn't a coach more equipped to do just that than Foster.
Where Fuente's influence will be most needed is on the offensive side of the ball. The Scot Loeffler years for the Hokies were hard on the eyes, as they never ranked higher than 92nd nationally in yards per play.
At Memphis, Fuente and new Virginia Tech offensive coordinator Brad Cornelsen engineered a high-powered offense. Cornelsen helped develop highly touted NFL quarterback prospect Paxton Lynch, and the Tigers went from 117th in yards per game, according to cfbstats.com, in 2013 to 12th in 2015, per Thayer Evans of Sports Illustrated.
The weapons are there in Blacksburg for Fuente and his new offense if they can adjust to the new scheme quickly.
Isaiah Ford just posted 1,164 yards and 11 receiving touchdowns in his sophomore season, and redshirt freshman Travon McMillian was the first 1,000-yard rusher for VT since 2011. All 6'7" of tight end Bucky Hodges will be back, too.
Virginia Tech will play Tennessee and its massive hype train early in the season and will also travel to Notre Dame. However, the Hokies avoid all the big guns from the ACC's Atlantic Division this fall.
The ACC Coastal should be a fun, wide-open race in 2016, and Virginia Tech has a solid chance to make a big statement in Fuente's first season.
D.J. Durkin (Maryland)
As Bleacher Report lead Big Ten football writer Ben Axelrod wrote last month, Maryland might have made the biggest heist of the coaching carousel with D.J. Durkin.
The former Michigan defensive coordinator has worked for Urban Meyer, Jim Harbaugh and Will Muschamp inside the past decade. He's been in charge of several highly ranked defenses in his still-young coaching career. (Plus, he has a bit of head coaching experience as an interim during Florida's 2014 bowl game.)
Durkin's success as a recruiter will go hand in hand with the pipeline of talent near Maryland and the program's plans to become the "Oregon of the East." The Terrapins also have a soft commitment from Dwayne Haskins—the nation's No. 7 quarterback and a potential program-changer.
The new Maryland head coach should be able to make his mark right away on a defense that had pro-level talent—linemen Quinton Jefferson and Yannick Ngakoue are headed to the next level—but couldn't put it all together.
Returning cornerback Will Likely is a game-changer on special teams and could even find his way to the offensive side of the ball.
Also, Maryland's 3-9 record in 2015 might not tell the whole story. The Terrapins' F/+ rating is higher than several teams that finished with better records, and they had a pair of close losses to Penn State and Wisconsin before a season-ending win over Rutgers.
Durkin has surrounded himself with arguably one of the most impressive new assistant coaching staffs in the country. Durkin hired three former head coaches—Mike London, Scott Shafer and Pete Lembo—to help him rebuild the Terps.
"It’s a collaborative effort," London said, per Callie Caplan of the Diamondback. "We all understand that there’s insights we each have specifically—where we’ve been, where we’ve grown up, the decisions we’ve had to make—and we can offer those types of insights to DJ."
Maryland will also benefit from an easier nonconference schedule that consists of Howard, FIU and UCF. The Terps have to travel to Michigan and Nebraska but get Michigan State and Ohio State at home.
Durkin's long-term potential at Maryland is easy to see, but he has the opportunity to get ahead of schedule in College Park. The schedule is favorable for a bowl bid, and there are several intriguing pieces already in place. Maryland could be the surprise team of 2016.
Jason Candle (Toledo)
A few of the hottest names from the "Group of Five" ranks had to replace their coaches during the "silly season," but none of them look better equipped to keep the momentum rolling than Toledo.
With Matt Campbell off to Iowa State—a team Toledo beat in its 10-win 2015 campaign—offensive coordinator Jason Candle took over prior to the Boca Raton Bowl. His head coaching debut was a major success, as the Rockets beat AAC runner-up Temple by a score of 32-19.
"When you have the opportunity to take over a program as a head coach, you don't always anticipate it to be in good shape," Candle told Pete Thamel of Sports Illustrated after the victory. "We're in pretty good shape right now."
The Rockets' offensive play-caller will lose senior quarterback Phillip Ely but will retain explosive running back Kareem Hunt, who announced he would stay in school this week.
Hunt nearly ran for 1,000 yards in just nine games in 2015, and he could get closer to the numbers from his standout sophomore season (1,631 yards and 16 TDs) with a full load of games next season. In addition to a deep running back and wide receiver core, the Rockets should return most of their starting offensive linemen.
Reinforcements must come on the defensive side of the ball, but the team should remain consistent through the transition. After all, Campbell won nine games in three of his four seasons at Toledo, and his worst one was a seven-win campaign.
The 2016 schedule should be a highly favorable one for Toledo. The Rockets must travel to Sun Belt champion Arkansas State and a BYU team in transition, but they won't be overmatched in any of their games. The MAC schedule is split right down the middle with challenges at home and on the road.
Staying in-house was the perfect call for a Toledo program that has been consistent over the last several seasons, and Candle will get another year with a lot of his top offensive talent. The Rockets could compete for a New Year's Six bowl berth.
Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.
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