Early List of Hot-Seat Head Coaches for 2016 College Football Season
The 2016 football season technically begins next September. Coaching is a year-long job, however, and some of college football's biggest names will be working for their job. What happens in January and February could very well affect what happens in October and November.
In the following slides are the coaches who absolutely must have a good '16 or they risk being let go. Whether they're simply not winning enough or not showing enough progress in certain areas (i.e. offense or defense), the following coaches are, at minimum, entering their third year at their current job.
With the '16 calendar year just getting started, it's time to look ahead at the college football coaches on the hot seat.
Colorado Head Coach Mike MacIntyre
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Colorado is being patient with head coach Mike MacIntyre. And it should be. The program has faced numerous setbacks over the years, whether it was failure to upgrade facilities or hiring the wrong coach. MacIntyre still has a big job in front of him, but he has the support of the administration.
"I've said it publicly several times: Mike MacIntyre is going to be our coach next year," athletic director Rick George said in November, per cubuffs.com. "There's really nothing to discuss. I've said it several times, and nothing has changed. People have asked and I've said the same thing: Mike's going to be our coach. Let's move on to the next topic."
How long he'll have that support remains to be seen. MacIntyre did a great job at San Jose State, so there's no questioning his coaching chops. The Buffs have just 10 wins in three years under MacIntyre to show for all the work he's done, but this team has come awfully close to winning more games. The program just hasn't quite turned the corner yet.
At some point, though, "close enough" isn't good enough. It's more than fair to wonder if '16 will be that defining year for MacIntyre, who may need to get to a bowl game to save his job.
Idaho Head Coach Paul Petrino
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Idaho has been an impossible place to find consistent success—at least at the Division I FBS level, that is. However, head coach Paul Petrino might be getting things rolling with the Vandals.
After collecting just two wins in his first two years, Petrino led Idaho to a 4-8 effort last season, and quarterback Matt Linehan has some promise. Still, Petrino needs to build off that third-year leap. If Petrino gets Idaho to six wins, he's safe for sure. The same might even be said if he gets to five wins.
But if the Vandals take a step back, Idaho might be tempted to move on. 2016 is a critical year for Petrino in that a winning season might make him an attractive prospect in the coaching carousel. A bad season could mean he's looking for a job in the wrong way.
Kent State Head Coach Paul Haynes
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Interestingly, former Kent State coach Darrell Hazell finds himself at the center of some hot seat conversations at Purdue (more on that later). His successor with the Golden Flashes, Paul Haynes, could be on the hot seat for 2016 as well.
Haynes is 9-26 since replacing Hazell and has won six games in Mid-American Conference play. This past year, Kent State finished dead last in the Football Bowl Subdivision in yards per play (4.11), per Matt Brown of Sports on Earth. Things are...not looking good.
2016 will get off to a rough start, too. The Golden Flashes have to play at Penn State and at Alabama in nonconference play. Woof.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Kentucky Head Coach Mark Stoops
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Winning at Kentucky isn't easy, but soon-to-be-fourth-year head coach Mark Stoops has come close to breaking through. In each of the past five seasons, the Wildcats have finished 5-7. However, those have also been the results of late-season collapses.
In 2014, Kentucky started 5-1 but didn't win a game the rest of the season. This past year, Stoops' team started 4-1 before finishing 1-6. In fact, Stoops has won just two games past mid-October during his time in Lexington. Without a doubt, the most painful loss came this past season when the Wildcats blew a 24-7 halftime lead to Louisville to lose 38-24.
Coming so close only to fall short is frustrating, and no one has to be more unsatisfied with how things have ended than Stoops. It's imperative that Stoops finishes stronger in 2016. An awfully large buyout could mean he's safe for at least another two years, but the school has to balance that with on-field performance.
LSU Head Coach Les MIles
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Les Miles survived 2015 by the skin of his teeth thanks to a 19-7 win over Texas A&M. With the school reportedly set to fire Miles, an 11th-hour decision was made to keep Miles so that LSU wouldn't appear "mean spirited," as Joe Schad of ESPN.com reported.
However it actually went down, and whatever you want to believe, Miles will be back in '16. Still, the rapport between Miles and LSU cannot possibly be strong given the way Miles was hung out to dry in the weeks leading up to the A&M game.
To LSU's credit, though, there is an argument to be made Miles isn't winning enough against the right opponents (for instance: Miles is 0-5 against Alabama dating back to the 2012 BCS national championship). Miles brought in defensive coordinator Dave Aranda from Wisconsin to improve that side of the ball, and he still has Heisman Trophy candidate Leonard Fournette at running back. There are pieces in place for Miles to win an SEC championship.
If he wins, say, eight or nine games again, do he and LSU agree to part ways? It looked like all but a certainty not two months ago. Money is apparently no problem here.
New Mexico State Head Coach Doug Martin
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New Mexico State is another one of those jobs where it's seemingly impossible to win. On paper, head coach Doug Martin hasn't quite done the job. The Aggies are 7-29 under Martin, who is entering his fourth year.
However, there are signs of life. Winless through seven games last year, New Mexico State popped off three straight victories against Idaho, Texas State and Louisiana-Lafayette. Martin's team then lost its last two games, but at least there was a moment of positivity.
If Martin can capitalize on that and get New Mexico State to five wins, it might just be enough improvement to get him to 2017. The Aggies have a playmaker in running back Larry Rose III (1,651 yards in '15). Will that be enough?
Penn State Head Coach James Franklin
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James Franklin doesn't enter 2015 on the hottest of hot seats, per se. Rather, he enters on a lukewarm seat that could get hot quickly.
Franklin has gone 7-6 in each of his two seasons at Penn State. The biggest (only?) problem has been the offense. Namely, offensive line play has been subpar at best and quarterback Christian Hackenberg, once considered to be the brightest future star at that position, never had the opportunity to develop accordingly.
Hackenberg is off to the NFL and Franklin lost two key assistants: defensive coordinator John Shoop, who took the same job at Tennessee, and offensive line coach/run game coordinator Herb Hand, who took the O-line job at Auburn.
With the Big Ten East now extremely top-heavy—Jim Harbaugh, Mark Dantonio and Urban Meyer make up arguably the best trio of coaches in a single division—there's more pressure on Franklin to get things turned around quickly.
Purdue Head Coach Darrell Hazell
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Purdue opted not to change coaches this year during one of the more active silly seasons in recent memory. As a result, Darrell Hazell will be back for a fourth year at Purdue.
Hazell has been given the vote of confidence by his athletic director, Morgan Burke, but Hazell has averaged two wins a year for three seasons. Even for Purdue, that's not going to cut it.
But as Mike Carmin of the Indianapolis Star noted, Hazell's buyout drops more than $2 million if Purdue waits to fire Hazell until next December:
"Hazell will have three years remaining on his original six-year contract after this season. Hazell’s buyout on Dec. 1 is $6.7 million, one factor in Burke’s decision to retain the New Jersey native, who came to Purdue after spending two seasons at Kent State University. His buyout drops to $4.6 million on Dec. 1, 2016.
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Would Hazell get a fifth year if he doesn't make a bowl in '16? It's going to be awfully hard to justify another season of one to three wins without deciding it's time to move on.
Texas Head Coach Charlie Strong
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This is one is obvious. Charlie Strong simply cannot have another year like his first two at Texas. If 2016 looks like it's headed down that path, don't be surprised if the Longhorns part ways before the season is even over.
Strong's rebuilding project took Texas down to the studs. Changing the culture of a program from the Mack Brown era takes time. In a perfect world, Strong gets at least four or five years to accomplish everything he needs. This isn't a perfect world, though. There have been too many blowout losses in nonconference games, bowl games and, worst of all, in Big 12 play.
Strong hired Tulsa offensive coordinator Sterlin Gilbert to fix the offense and quarterback Shane Buechele is officially enrolled early. Texas cannot afford be stagnant on offense again. While Strong deserves time, he also deserves blame for mishandling the offense from the get-go.
If Strong can't get it done next season—he probably needs at least eight or nine wins—don't be surprised if Texas looks East to Houston at a guy named Tom Herman.
Texas A&M Head Coach Kevin Sumlin
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Texas isn't the only high-profile school in the Lone Star State with a head coaching problem. Kevin Sumlin could be out at Texas A&M if he doesn't improve on his win-loss record and contend for an SEC West title.
Of course, much of the heat on Sumlin's seat involves things other than his record. In December, quarterbacks Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray transferred. This month, A&M "mutually decided to part ways" with offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, per Tom Fornelli, CBS Sports. Not long after, Sumlin's boss, athletic director Eric Hyman, resigned.
UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone will be tasked with turning the offense around and Oklahoma transfer quarterback Trevor Knight could be the answer in the backfield. Otherwise, Sumlin's new boss may not have patience. In fairness, Sumlin is entering Year 5 with the Aggies and has never capitalized on the success of his first season when A&M won 11 games and Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy.
West Virginia Head Coach Dana Holgorsen
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In fairness to Dana Holgorsen, West Virginia got the worst draw from the Big 12 schedule by facing Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU in consecutive games—and three of those four were on the road. Sorry, but you can't call for Holgorsen's head when he has to face that kind of slate.
Still, Holgorsen will have some heat on his behind moving into the 2016 season. He hasn't been able to get West Virginia over the hump and into the top part of the Big 12 standings. He also hasn't had much success recruiting a quarterback to Morgantown, something no one thought they'd say six years into his tenure.
Ultimately, West Virginia's ceiling in the Big 12 is only so high. Expectations need to be adjusted accordingly. Winning the Cactus Bowl over Arizona State takes some pressure off Holgorsen in the offseason, but it'll be back on him once the season begins.
“We should be even better next year,” Holgorsen told Jack Magruder of Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. For Holgorsen's sake, he better be right.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
