Way-Too-Early 2016 Pac 12 Football Power Rankings
The 2015 season came to an official close on Monday night with Alabama’s 45-40 victory over Clemson in the national title game. While the SEC and ACC battled for the sport’s ultimate prize and the Pac-12 was left out of this year’s College Football Playoff, Commissioner Larry Scott’s league proved once again to be one of the deepest in the country even if it was not right there in the end.
What are in the cards for 2016 though? Can a team emerge as an elite power and make the final four? Will somebody take a big step back?
It’s time to take a look into our crystal ball and look ahead to 2016, sorting out how the Pac-12 stacks up next season based on everything from coaching changes to player departures.
12. Oregon State
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The rebuilding project coach Gary Anderson began last season should continue with the Beavers being on the wrong end of a few thrashings. Part of that is because the schedule is brutal, with the team likely being favored or even within a touchdown in just one contest in 2016 (an FCS foe at that).
Still, there’s some young talent and a decent mix of veterans on the team that should show progress on the field even if the win/loss results aren’t reflective of that by December. There are plenty of options at quarterback with dual-threat Seth Collins and sophomore Marcus McMaryion back while Utah State transfer Darell Garretson becomes eligible. Add in an offensive line that features plenty of upperclassmen and receivers like Victor Bolden and Jordan Villamin, and the offense should be pretty good.
The bigger questions lie on defense, which will have to grow up quickly under a new defensive coordinator and hope to slow down opposing offenses much more than it did in 2015.
11. California Golden Bears
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Having a first-round quarterback covered a lot—and we mean a lot—of flaws that the Bears might have had the past few years. Replacing Jared Goff won’t be easy, and the fact that there’s little to no experience behind him makes it a tall task for coah Sonny Dykes and the Bears staff. Also at issue, the bulk of the playmaking wide receiving corps will be gone as well. They’ll still be an Air Raid team, but don’t be surprised if the run game is much more in focus offensively next season with Khalfani Muhammad and Tre Watson powering the way.
The defense returns mostly intact but will still need to make strides to keep up with the rest of the division. It’s been a remarkable improvement on that side of the ball each season under Dykes, and 2016 could be the most stout unit yet if a few players step up their games with another offseason of training.
The schedule isn’t easy though. After going all the way to Australia to play Hawaii, the Bears play at Mountain West champion San Diego State and then host Texas in the nonconference slate. Cal will be tested early, which is a positive since the Pac-12 slate does not let up.
10. Colorado Buffaloes
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It speaks to the depth of the Pac-12 when the Buffaloes have a shot to make a bowl game based on their talent and coaching level but find themselves toward the bottom of the rankings. The schedule isn’t a walkover with trips to Michigan, USC, Oregon and Stanford.
Quarterback Sefo Liufau will be back hoping to make a big jump after a bit of a sophomore slump. The defense made great strides in 2015 and if the Buffs can keep that up and pair it with improvement on offense, the winning should finally start to come back to the Flatirons.
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9. Arizona State Sun Devils
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After early talk of the playoff in 2015, Arizona State faltered right from the start last season and never seemed to recover. Now the Sun Devils will go into another year where they have to replace their starting quarterback and figure out a few things up front. Kalen Ballage or Demario Richard are a nice one-two punch to build the team around, but they’re going to need some help from veterans and newcomers alike.
One can’t discount some coaching turnover when it comes to Arizona State either. Offensive coordinator Mike Norvell finally left the nest and took a head coaching job at Memphis, leaving some big shoes back in Tempe. Those around the program are excited about the addition of Chip Lindsey from Southern Miss, but there’s still going to be a question mark around the hire until the bullets start flying on the field.
Todd Graham’s speciality is on defense, and that might have been the group that let the team down the most last season after giving up so many big plays. It wouldn’t necessarily shock folks if the Sun Devils are much better than they’re slotted here, but cutting down on defensive mistakes and figuring things out on offense with a bunch of new faces make that an uphill climb.
8. Arizona Wildcats
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After spurning a few other coaching offers, coach Rich Rodriguez is back again in Tucson and looking to make waves with a team that will be overlooked by many but will continue to be one of the toughest outs in the Pac-12 South. A lot of that comes from the fact that quarterback Anu Solomon will be a year older, a year wiser and hopefully fully healthy for all of next season.
It seemed almost night and day for the offense when he was out of the lineup, so keeping him upright all year will be priority No. 1 for the Wildcats. Nick Wilson being back should certainly help and take the pressure off Solomon as teams try to slow him down.
Arizona’s fate, however, will come down to defense. It gave up over 35 points a game last year, and that prompted RichRod to make a change away from longtime friend and defensive coordinator Jeff Casteel. Nobody knows what kind of system the team will be running in 2016 just yet, but it's safe to say there’s nowhere to go but up for a team that looked quite lost without linebacker Scooby Wright III running every play.
Wright won’t return to the team either next season but with a few tweaks on that side of the ball, Arizona could once again make some waves in the tough Pac-12 South.
7. Utah Utes
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After winning 19 games the past two seasons and turning in some of their most impressive performances since moving to the Pac-12, expectations are being reined in a bit when it comes to the Utes in 2016. A lot of that is simply the nature of the game, with a bulk of the key players in this recent run moving on to the NFL or to graduation.
That includes quarterback Travis Wilson and running back Devonate Booker, who have been the heart and soul of the team’s identity the past few seasons. Wilson has proved to be much easier to replace since he was injured several times over the year and incoming transfer Troy Williams, who was originally at Washington, should be the front-runner to take over in Salt Lake City.
It will be much more difficult to replace the tough running and impressive hands of Booker, who was a workhorse plain and simple for the Utes. At least most of the offensive line is back to open up holes for new tailback Joseph Williams, and the group up front could be the best in the league if things break right.
Then there’s the defense, which does return a number of starters and should once again be in the top third of the league in every major category on that side of the ball. Defensive tackle Lowell Lotulelei, defensive end Kylie Fitts and safety Marcus Williams will be the new stars for the Utes after great sophomore campaigns but will need to step things up after losing key contributors like Jared Norris and Gionni Paul.
6. UCLA Bruins
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The Bruins have recruited at a high level over the past few years, and coach Jim Mora has proved to be quite the capable coach during his tenure in Westwood, but the offseason has not been kind to the power blues in advance of 2016. On the coaching front, offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and his son (the team’s quarterbacks coach) are both off to Texas A&M and were replaced mostly in-house by Mora. That should help with continuity, but it is still a transition that the team will need to get used to.
Then there’s the talent drain from the team that is quite noticeable. Receiver Thomas Duarte declaring for the NFL draft meant that six Bruins left school early, including two offensive linemen and running back Paul Perkins on offensive alone. Add in the terrific Myles Jack and Kenny Clark on defense, and that’s just a lot to replace.
But the team does have terrific quarterback Josh Rosen ready to build off a freshman All-American year. That alone will keep them in the running in the Pac-12 South and allow them to challenge the upper tier of the conference. UCLA still lost a lot and the schedule isn’t super easy, but the team is plenty capable of getting into the Top 25 and making waves if some contributors emerge early in the year.
5. Oregon Ducks
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Like their counterparts around the league, this is a big offseason for Oregon considering how many talented players have left Eugene and how much need there is for the team to get back on the same page after an up-and-down 2015 was capped off with a remarkably bad ending.
As one would expect, the skill-position talent that is back in green (and white, gold, silver, etc.) is impressive, starting with running back Royce Freeman on down to receivers Devon Allen, Dwayne Stanford and Darren Carrington among others.
If FCS transfer Dakota Prukop (who is already enrolled and ready for spring practices) can even come close to what Vernon Adams did behind center, Oregon will once again be a threat to make it to the Pac-12 title game. Even if he’s not, Prukop should represent a better option than Jeff Lockie and Taylor Alie.
The biggest question mark for the Ducks remains on defense, as it has for many years. DeForest Bucker was an absolute beast along the defensive line, and replacing him will be no easy task even if there are a few former 5-stars who could fill in. The linebacking corps will be the biggest area of turnover for whoever takes over as defensive coordinator but make no mistake, there are still plenty of fast, talented players on that side of the ball.
4. Washington State Cougars
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The Cougars surprised everybody with the kind of year they had, an inexplicable loss to an FCS team to start the season the only thing that prevented them from three wins in 2014 to double digits in 2015. The bulk of last year’s squad returns and that’s highlighted by quarterback Luke Falk, who will once again be setting the pace on most FBS passing charts when the season gets going. He’ll be joined by the terrific Gabe Marks and a surprisingly strong ground game that will be boosted even more with the number of returners along the offensive line.
In the past, this is where we’d caution that defensive improvement is needed in order for the team to take the next step, but that’s not really the case after the masterful job that coordinator Alex Grinch did in his first year on the Palouse. There are a number of key starters to replace for sure, but it’s not going to be a total rebuilding job like it has been in past years.
We’ll know early on if Wazzu can make the leap from great story under Mike Leach into true Pac-12 North contenders. A trip to the blue turf of Boise State looms large in the nonconference schedule, as does back-to-back games against league powers Oregon and Stanford. At this point we’ll enter the year wondering not if the Cougars are going to make a bowl game, but just how good of a postseason destination will they have?
3. Washington Huskies
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Fire up the offseason hype train for the Huskies as they will be a lot of folks' either outright or dark-horse pick to win the Pac-12 North in 2016. There’s good reason for that too, starting with having a good head coach in Chris Petersen and a number of exciting staff changes hopefully being the missing piece for Washington heading into spring ball.
The other reason the Purple and Gold will be trendy picks in the Pac-12 has to do with all that young talent that is back in Seattle for another season. Quarterback Jake Browning grew stronger as the year went on, and fellow freshman Myles Gaskins was a revelation for the team as one of the best running backs on the West Coast in 2015. Add to the bulk of the offense coming back with a fierce and nasty defense being led by Budda Baker and Azeem Victor, and there’s a good reason to pick the team to finish high up in the standings going into 2016.
2. USC Trojans
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As usual, we’ll have to put up a disclaimer regarding any preseason hype surrounding the Trojans considering the team has typically been unable to live up to them under both Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian. Neither of those two are in charge, however, as USC is fully on the Clay Helton train even if the ending wasn’t what he had hoped after getting the interim label removed from his head coach title.
Let’s start with the good: roughly nine starters back on offense that includes everybody from terrific tailback Ronald Jones to the dynamic playmaker JuJu Smith-Schuster. The bulk of the offensive line returns, and even the new starters will enter 2016 with at least some playing experience.
Finding a new quarterback to replace Cody Kessler will likely drag on until fall camp, but Helton won’t be lacking for options between former five-star Max Browne and a host of others. Defensively there’s a little more to replace, but the team still has young players like Adoree’ Jackson and Cameron Smith back and ready to return Troy back to prominence.
Helton has already tapped Clancy Pendergast to return to L.A. as defensive coordinator, and that should be a move that will pay off big dividends considering how great some of his past defenses have been in the Pac-12. The schedule starts out brutally (Alabama in the opener, of course, but also early league tests too), but there remains no more talented roster in all the Pac-12.
1. Stanford Cardinal
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The king is the king until somebody can knock him off the top. At least, that should be the case in the Pac-12 for 2016.
The Cardinal’s budding West Coast dynasty will be the trending pick to repeat as league champions, but it might be their toughest offseason under David Shaw considering the number of key contributors who will be off to the NFL this year. Gone will be clutch quarterback Kevin Hogan, mammoth offensive linemen like Josh Garnett and Kyle Murphy and big targets like Devon Cajuste.
Defensively, finding a replacement for Blake Martinez will be essentially impossible while somebody like Aziz Shittu will be missed quite a bit from the first spring practice.
But there is still a lot to get excited about, starting with Shaw and his terrific staff finding a way to get the team in position to win just about every game. Christian McCaffrey will look to build on his Heisman runner-up season (somehow, at least) and Solomon Thomas, Quenton Meeks and Peter Kalambayi are nice players to help build around defensively. Assuming former hot-shot recruits like Ryan Burns and Keller Chryst are up to replace Hogan, Stanford once again looks like the team to beat if you want to win the Pac-12 in 2016.
We’ll know early on too, since the schedule does the team no favors when it comes to breaking in new faces. They’ll open with Kansas State in the nonconference slate before jumping right in to the Pac-12 race with USC, UCLA, Washington and Washington State through the middle of October. Add in a Notre Dame trip, and the first half the season will be make or break for the defending champions.
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