10 College Football Teams That Will Take a Step Back in 2016
Let the turnover begin.
With the college football season officially over, and the NFL draft season set to get started, programs from around the country are dealing with an enormous amount of attrition and turnover. Of course, no two programs are hit the same way. Some are bound to take a bigger step back in 2016 based on losses and what they accomplished in '15. Projected strength of schedules play a role as well.
With that in mind, we've compiled 10 teams who feel like the safest bets to take a step back.
The definition of taking a "step back" as it relates to this conversation is fairly straightforward. The following teams aren't projected to match their win total based on personnel and/or coaching losses. It doesn't mean the step back has to be huge—it could be by as little as one game—but it will be there all the same.
But to take it a step further, moving back also means there could be obvious deficiencies on offense and/or defense because of a major departure(s).
BYU
1 of 10
What a roller coaster 2015 was for BYU. The Cougars started the season by losing star quarterback Taysom Hill to yet another season-ending injury. Then, backup quarterback-turned-starter Tanner Mangum threw not one, but two (essentially) Hail Mary passes to beat Nebraska and Boise State.
However, that turned into a two-game slide with losses to UCLA and Michigan, and five turnovers doomed BYU in the Las Vegas Bowl against Utah. On top of that, head coach Bronco Mendenhall made the surprise move of the coaching silly season by taking the same job with Virginia.
In comes new head coach Kalani Sitake, a former BYU running back who knows his way around the state of Utah. Can Sitake maintain nine or 10 wins for the Cougars? The schedule, as usual, is daunting. BYU opens the year against Arizona and immediately gets Utah and UCLA afterward before playing West Virginia, Toledo, Michigan State and Mississippi State.
BYU doesn't lose too much in the way of starters, but a new head coach and a brutal start to the season could make for a tough adjustment.
Cal
2 of 10
The irony of projecting Cal to take a step back from winning eight games in 2015 is that the Bears should have their best and most veteran defense yet in the Sonny Dykes era. That said, the losses on offense cannot be overstated.
Quarterback Jared Goff is gone and could very well be the top pick in the 2016 draft, according to B/R's Matt Miller. The competition to replace Goff will be a position battle to watch this offseason, but remember that Goff attempted all but 19 passes this past year. Additionally, five of the top six receivers were seniors; the team's leading receiver in catches, Kenny Lawler, declared for the NFL draft as well.
The Pac-12 North should be far more competitive than it was in '15. Washington State has seemingly turned a corner under head coach Mike Leach, and Washington might not be far behind after winning six games with a young team. Then, of course, there are Oregon and Stanford, who do as good a job as any program in the country at reloading.
Dykes agreed to a new contract in December, putting to bed rumors that he was looking elsewhere. For '16, that should mean job security if Cal goes back to six wins (or worse).
Florida
3 of 10
Credit first-year head coach Jim McElwain for getting the Gators to 10 wins and the SEC championship game right away. He far and away surpassed expectations. However, those expectations might need to be tempered for Year 2.
Quarterback Will Grier, who was already facing a 12-month suspension for using a banned substance, made his intentions to transfer known in December. That leaves Treon Harris as the most experienced quarterback, and his time in Gainesville has been filled with ups and downs. Additionally, the defense, which was one of the best in the SEC, loses edge-rusher Jonathan Bullard, linebacker Antonio Morrison and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves III.
With Tennessee on the rise and Georgia trying to maintain its place near the top of the SEC, there are only so many wins to go around. 2016 is lining up to be the year when Florida struggles to win both of those games.
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Iowa
4 of 10
Unlike some of the other teams on this list, Iowa doesn't lose a tremendous amount of talent heading into next season. In fact, the core group of the team that won 12 regular-season games in 2015 comes back. Among them are quarterback C.J. Beathard and Thorpe Award-winning cornerback Desmond King.
Still, it's going to be tough for the Hawkeyes to win 12 games again. With the Rose Bowl loss to Stanford in mind, there's no doubt head coach Kirk Ferentz got his team to overachieve. Plus, the Hawkeyes got a scheduling benefit and didn't face Michigan, Michigan State or Ohio State. Next season, Iowa gets Penn State and Michigan out of the Big Ten East division in back-to-back games.
Granted, Iowa should be the early favorite to win the Big Ten West. The Hawkeyes get Northwestern, Nebraska and Wisconsin at home. However, they also lose leading rusher Jordan Canzeri—LeShun Daniels Jr. will take over that role—and two of their top three receivers plus some guys in the trenches.
Michigan State
5 of 10
A 38-0 loss to Alabama in the playoff semifinal showed Michigan State was outmatched first and foremost. It also told us Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio got the most out of this team, seeing as it won 12 games and all.
Moving into 2016, though, Sparty has to undergo a major overhaul. Gone are: quarterback Connor Cook, wide receiver Aaron Burbridge, offensive linemen Jack Allen and Jack Conklin, defensive end Shilique Calhoun and linebacker Darien Harris—among others.
That's a whole lot of star power to replace in a short period of time. By now, Dantonio deserves some benefit of the doubt. I don't know that anyone predicts Michigan State to be bad in '16, but with Michigan supposedly on the rise and Ohio State remaining as a marquee game, a 10-win season would be nothing short of a monumental coaching job by Dantonio. Keep in mind, too, the Spartans have Notre Dame and BYU in nonconference play.
Navy
6 of 10
Navy has been a model of consistency in college football that few other programs have been able to achieve. Given the academy's academic demands and physical restrictions, the Midshipmen's success should be admired above all else.
But 2015 was a special season. Navy won 11 games and came within one loss of playing for the American Athletic Conference championship. Quarterback Keenan Reynolds now owns about every rushing record in the Football Bowl Subdivision. When you lose a player like that, you don't exactly get better—especially when you've already reached your ceiling.
Navy loses a ton of seniors off of the '15 team. There are plenty of upperclassmen ready to emerge, but it's hard to see the Midshipmen matching this year's win total.
Northwestern
7 of 10
As B/R colleague Ben Axelrod asked in his postseason Big Ten power rankings, was Northwestern lucky or good in 2015?
No team wins 10 games by accident, but the Wildcats caught some breaks, that's for sure. They didn't have to face Ohio State or Michigan State but did lose badly to Michigan and Iowa. Next season, Northwestern gets the Buckeyes and Spartans on the schedule, plus an Indiana team that could be tricky. In all, Northwestern's three toughest games are on the road.
Most of the team's starters on offense, including athletic quarterback Clayton Thorson, return. However, that offense needs to improve after finishing dead last in points per game. The defense will have to replace most of its front four, which can be problematic. The 45-6 blowout loss to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl leaves some room for concern as well.
To think the Wildcats drop a game ore two more in 2016 isn't unreasonable by any stretch. Northwestern is a tough place to win, and while Pat Fitzgerald is an outstanding coach, sustained success in Evanston, Illinois, is few and far between.
Ohio State
8 of 10
Ohio State's machine has been running at maximum strength since head coach Urban Meyer took over in 2012. The Buckeyes are an astounding 50-4 over the past four years and have won a national championship.
At some point, the Buckeyes are going to step down a bit. 2016 looks like it could be that year.
Nine whole underclassmen have declared for the NFL draft. The losses there don't even include any seniors moving on. It doesn't matter how good of a coach you are—and Meyer is one of the best there is—that's a lot to overcome.
It brings to mind what happened to Florida State in 2015. The Seminoles had to completely rebuild, and while they won 10 games, it quite clearly was a step or two behind previous years.
"I compare it, as I've discussed with our staff, very similar to the 2014 team," Meyer said of his 2016 team, per B/R's Ben Axelrod. "That was a team of development." Be ready, Buckeye fans.
Mississippi State
9 of 10
Despite finishing sixth in the SEC West, Mississippi State won nine games with, basically, a rebuilt front seven, offensive line and backfield. But when you have a quarterback like Dak Prescott, that makes up for a lot of problems.
Prescott is gone, though, and head coach Dan Mullen must find a replacement for a truly transcendent player. Think about it this way: How many wins was Prescott worth? One? Two? More? It's going to be tough to win nine games again without a guy like Prescott who can do it all.
Couple that with playing in the SEC West, college football's toughest division, and Mississippi State might be closer to .500 than 10 wins in 2016. The good news for the Bulldogs is they don't get a tough draw from the SEC East with cross-divisional games against Kentucky and South Carolina. Otherwise, it'd be really hard times.
TCU
10 of 10
I'll be honest: I'm extremely hesitant to include TCU on this list seeing as head coach Gary Patterson just won 11 games by MacGyvering a football team together with, as B/R's Adam Kramer would say, "a paper clip, some duct tape and a left shoe." By now, I should know not to doubt Patterson. But here we are.
The top of the Big 12 in 2016 could look quite similar to how it shaped up in '15. In other words, would it shock anyone if Baylor, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and TCU were jockeying for the conference title again? Of those four teams, Baylor and TCU lose the most value.
The Frogs, of course, will be without quarterback Trevone Boykin and receiver Josh Doctson. Most of the O-line will be gone as well. Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill should be the front-runner to succeed Boykin, but his short stint with the Aggies leaves some questions.
The defense will be better, but will it be enough—especially if another team (say, Kansas State) creeps into the conference title conversation come November? Winning at least 11 games three years in a row is tough. Perennial power Oklahoma hasn't done it since 2006-08, and that's back when the Big 12 had divisions.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes cited unless obtained firsthand.
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