5 Dark-Horse Playoff Contenders for 2016 College Football Season

The 2015 college football season roared to a close Monday night with Alabama’s thrilling 45-40 national championship victory over Clemson. But if we’ve learned one thing about college football, it's this: The game never stops.

Recruiting bleeds into spring practice, which leads to summer workouts, which lead to preseason practice, and before you know it, the 2016 season will be here. So it’s never too early to start speculating about which teams will make a charge toward the brass ring next fall. Fox Sports' Stewart Mandel already offered his extremely early preseason Top 25. 

This season, we saw unexpected teams such as Iowa fall just short of the College Football Playoff, with newcomers Clemson and Michigan State breaking through and Oklahoma rebounding from a down 2014 season to make the top four.

Which teams will surprise us all in 2016? Here’s a quick look at five teams that could be dark-horse playoff contenders. They’re teams that figure to begin the season outside the Top 10 and the playoff picture but could make a case thanks to strong experience and favorable scheduling.

Houston

John Bazemore/Associated Press

Greg Ward was electric for Houston's offense this season.

Houston got the nation’s attention in 2015. In Tom Herman’s first season as head coach, the Cougars went from an underachieving bunch to the best “Group of Five” team, going 13-1 and capping the season with a Peach Bowl win over Florida State. Houston’s only loss came at UConn with dynamic dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. injured.

Ward is back, and most importantly, so is Herman. Per Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle, the first-year head coach told ESPN 97.5 FM in Houston he had "very intense" discussions with at least one school before deciding to remain at Houston.

"At the end of the day, I like winning," he said. "I feel like we are building a program here. Not just a season, not just a one-hit wonder."

The Cougars will return 12 starters, but they must replace wideout Demarcus Ayers, tailback Kenneth Farrow, both starting tackles and three starters in their secondary.

Ward’s presence gives Houston a chance at greatness. He’s a versatile player who can hurt defenses in a lot of ways. He passed for 2,828 yards with 17 touchdowns against six interceptions and was also Houston’s leading rusher, going for 1,108 yards and 21 touchdowns.

Houston needs the American Athletic Conference to be as competitive as it was this year, but its biggest game will be the season opener against Oklahoma in Houston’s NRG Stadium. If the Cougars win that game, they'll have the marquee victory they need to get the nation’s attention.

They’ll also host Louisville in mid-November. An unbeaten season in the AAC is no guarantee, but it’d put the Cougars in the playoff conversation.

North Carolina

John Raoux/Associated Press

Elijah Hood will be one of the top backs in the ACC as a junior.

North Carolina had one of the nation’s best turnarounds in 2015. The Tar Heels shrugged off a disappointing 6-7 season, along with a confounding opening-game loss to a South Carolina team that would finish 3-9, by fashioning an 11-game winning streak that thrust them into the national spotlight.

Larry Fedora’s team gave No. 1 Clemson everything it had in the ACC title game before falling 45-37 and then losing to Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl. But there is reason for optimism in Chapel Hill. The Heels return 14 starters, although they must replace Marquise Williams, who threw for 3,072 yards and 24 touchdowns while adding 948 yards and 13 scores on the ground.

However, likely new starter Mitch Trubisky is a seasoned backup who pushed Williams hard for the job as a freshman and sophomore. In 2015, he threw six touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Heels also return one of the ACC’s best tailbacks in Elijah Hood, who rushed for 1,463 yards and 17 touchdowns. Seven starters will be back from a much-improved defense that thrived under Gene Chizik’s watch.

North Carolina begins the season against Georgia in the Georgia Dome and travels to Florida State, but it doesn’t face Clemson and has two FCS teams on its slate. The past two seasons have shown that an undefeated ACC team is good enough to make the College Football Playoff. Will the Heels join the party?

Oklahoma State

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

With Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State's offense is a developing force.

For 10 weeks, it looked like 2015 could be a year to remember for Oklahoma State. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys were 10-0 and firmly in the conversation for the College Football Playoff. Then, the Pokes’ bubble popped. A 45-35 loss to Baylor ended the playoff dream. Then, the Oklahoma Sooners came to Stillwater and pasted the Cowboys, 58-23. The Sugar Bowl was another bad dream: a 48-20 loss to Ole Miss.

But we haven't seen the last of Gundy’s group. Oklahoma State returns 17 starters, led by emerging star quarterback Mason Rudolph, who passed for 3,770 yards with 21 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Receiver James Washington, who tallied 1,087 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2015, is set to return, along with all five starting linemen.

Oklahoma State must replace standout defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah, who entered the NFL draft. And the defense in general must improve after allowing 30.5 points per game, No. 88 nationally. Road games against Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU will be challenging, but this is a team that fits the profile of a dark-horse playoff contender.

Tennessee

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Could Jalen Hurd and Tennessee make the leap to national contender in 2016?

Slowly but surely, Butch Jones is restoring the glory of the Tennessee Volunteers. Lane Kiffin and Derek Dooley’s failed tenures left them in dire straits, but Jones has two consecutive winning seasons capped by bowl routs of Big Ten teams under his belt. And here’s the thing: The Vols are still rather young. They could return as many as 17 starters.

They’re on the right path, going from 7-6 in 2014 to 9-4 in 2015. And look at their losses: in double overtime to Oklahoma, 19-14 to Alabama following a late-game score, 28-27 following a late-game meltdown against Florida and 24-20 to Arkansas. Not too shabby.

The natural next step is an SEC East title. Jones brings back one of the SEC’s best tailbacks in Jalen Hurd (1,288 yards, 12 touchdowns) and a veteran quarterback in Joshua Dobbs. New defensive coordinator Bob Shoop is also a big upgrade.

The Vols get Alabama and Florida, among others, at home, and a showdown against Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor Speedway will be wild. Can Tennessee make the leap to SEC and national power in 2016?

It could happen.

Washington

Ron Jenkins/Associated Press

Chris Petersen is looking for even bigger success in his third season at Washington.

Washington last won a national title in 1991, and the Huskies really haven’t been relevant nationally since the days of Don James. Could that be about to change? Coach Chris Petersen hopes so. Washington finished 7-6 in Petersen’s second season in Seattle, but the Huskies will return 15 starters.

Petersen finally found a quarterback in freshman Jake Browning, who threw for 2,955 yards with 16 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Tailback Myles Gaskin was a revelation with 1,302 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Washington also returns seven starters from a top-20 national scoring defense.

The schedule is challenging. The Pac-12 slate begins with road trips to Arizona and Oregon sandwiched around a visit from defending champion Stanford. It also includes this stretch of games to end the season: at Utah, at Cal, versus USC, versus Arizona State and at Washington State.

If the Huskies can make it through that slate unscathed, they’ll deserve to be in the College Football Playoff conversation, without question.

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via CFBstats.com.