Way-Too-Early 2016 Big Ten Football Power Rankings
The 2015 Big Ten season is officially in the books and although the conference doesn't once again find itself the home of the defending national champions, it'd be hard to look at the past year as anything but a step forward for the league.
From the resurgence of Michigan under its new head coach to 10 teams finding themselves participating in bowl games and the emergences of several new stars and an unlikely playoff contender, there was no shortage of positives to be found in the Big Ten in 2015. But although bowl season just ended, it's never too early to start looking ahead to the future, as spring practice for the 2016 season will be here before you know it.
Who will dominate the headlines for the conference in the coming year? That remains to be seen.
But while we're waiting, here's a look at some way-too-early Big Ten power rankings for 2016.
14. Purdue
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Sticking with head coach Darrell Hazell despite his 6-30 record in his first three seasons at Purdue, the Boilermakers program opted for continuity over abrupt change this offseason.
But if Purdue's faith in maintaining the status quo isn't rewarded with a dramatically different product on the field in 2016, there may not be a head coach in college football who finds his seat hotter during the season than the fourth-year Boilermaker head man.
The reality is, there just hasn't been a lot to like about Hazell's time in West Lafayette, Indiana, which has seen Purdue accumulate a 2-22 record in Big Ten play. There's not even the promise of impressive recruiting classes for the future to point to either, as the Boilermakers' 2016 class ranks 69th in the nation and Hazell has yet to ink a class ranked higher than 62nd since arriving at the school in 2013.
If there's any hope for Purdue in the coming year, it comes in the form of the now sophomore duo of running back Markell Jones and quarterback David Blough. But if the Boilermakers don't get off to a strong start in 2016, major changes could be in store sooner rather than later in West Lafayette.
13. Illinois
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Considering it fired its head coach just a week prior to the start of the season, Illinois' 2015 campaign could have gone a lot worse. Under interim head coach Bill Cubit, the Fighting Illini tallied a 5-7 record and needed just one win in their final three weeks of the season to obtain bowl eligibility.
That was enough for Illinois to remove the interim tag from Cubit's title, making him Illinois' full-time head coach. Just how long that will remain the case, however, remains to be seen, as Cubit was only given a two-year contract by the school, leaving many doubting how he'll be able to recruit with such little certainty in his future.
"Let’s come to grips with this: Everybody in college football and everybody in the NFL right now is on a one-year deal," said new Fighting Illini tight ends coach Jeff Hecklinski, per the News-Gazette. "That’s the world that we live in."
As far as 2016's concerned, Illinois will have its work cut out for itself with a Week 2 date with North Carolina and cross-over conference games against Big Ten East opponents Michigan and Michigan State. Quarterback Wes Lunt returns for his senior season after some impressive outings in 2015 but will need a big year for the Fighting Illini to not find themselves in the bottom half of the Big Ten standings.
12. Maryland
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After firing head coach Randy Edsall midway through the season and seeing interim coach Mike Locksley win just one game in six tries, Maryland opted to hire Michigan defensive coordinator D.J. Durkin as its new head coach.
And while the future for Durkin, a disciple of two of the Big Ten's most prominent head coaches, may be promising, it's going to take some time to turn around a program coming off of a 3-9 campaign in 2015.
Taking over a defense that ranked 90th in the country in 2015 and an offense without any concrete pieces to build on, Durkin will have plenty of work to do on the field after trying to convince 4-star quarterback Dwayne Haskins to stick with his commitment to the Terrapins off of it. It won't help either that Durkin will not only have to battle the likes of Ohio State and Michigan on the recruiting trail, but on the field annually as well in a loaded Big Ten East.
Given his pedigree, don't count out Durkin when it comes to turning around Maryland as it still tries to find its footing in the Big Ten. But 2016 should serve as a rebuilding year, with the best years still ahead in Durkin's time in College Park.
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11. Rutgers
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Much like Maryland, Rutgers decided it was time for a change after just its second season in the Big Ten.
And just like the Terrapins, the Scarlet Knights opted to look in-conference for their new head coach, tabbing Ohio State defensive coordinator Chris Ash as the man now in charge of their program.
The similarities don't stop there either, as Ash has a promising future as a head coach, but faces an uphill climb in one of college football's most crowded divisions in the Big Ten East. There's plenty of work to be done on the Rutgers roster as well, following a 4-8 season and the departure of star receiver Leonte Carroo.
As is the case with their rivals in the Old Line State, 2016 will be more about building a foundation than anything else for the Scarlet Knights. That may not mean many wins in their immediate future but could ultimately lead to long-term success for Ash in Piscataway, New Jersey.
10. Indiana
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After a 6-7 season that came down to a controversial loss to Duke in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl, Indiana opted to give head coach Kevin Wilson a six-year extension.
It'd be tough to disagree with the decision either. After all, it'd been eight years since the Hoosiers had merely made a bowl game.
"Coupled with an already solid foundation, this ensures stability as we continue to build a winning program in the Big Ten East, one of the great divisions in college football," Wilson said in a statement. "We are excited for the opportunity and embrace the challenge ahead."
A challenge it will certainly be, with the eligibility of quarterback Nate Sudfeld having expired and star running back Jordan Howard headed to the NFL. Playing in the loaded Big Ten East, it could be a struggle for Indiana to build on the momentum it found in 2015, but the stability it now has with Wilson is an encouraging sign for the future nonetheless.
9. Penn State
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So what's going on in Happy Valley?
After ending its season with a loss to Georgia in the TaxSlayer Bowl, Penn State has undergone an unexpected overhaul of its coaching staff of sorts. It started with head coach James Franklin's firing of offensive coordinator John Donovan and continued with defensive coordinator Bob Shoop's departure to Tennessee.
On Monday, well-regarded offensive line coach Herb Hand left for Auburn, leaving many to wonder what's up with the mass exodus of coaches in State College, Pennsylvania?
Add in that quarterback Christian Hackenberg is headed for the NFL and the Nittany Lions will be losing star defensive end Carl Nassib, and 2016 becomes a year of unknowns for Penn State as Franklin enters his third season in Happy Valley. Sophomore running back Saquon Barkley is already one of the Big Ten's best players, but the Nittany Lions have plenty to prove in the coming year as they try to gain ground in a Big Ten East that's seen them become an afterthought when compared to the likes of Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan.
8. Minnesota
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Despite enduring a 5-7 regular season that was marked by the in-season departure of head coach Jerry Kill, Minnesota enters the 2016 offseason with some much-needed momentum. Picking up a win over Central Michigan in the Quick Lane Bowl, the Golden Gophers showed plenty of potential under new head coach Tracy Claeys, whose interim tag was removed shortly after Kill stepped down in late October.
Perhaps most promising in Minnesota's 2015 finale was the play of quarterback Mitch Leidner, who threw for 223 yards and a touchdown and rushed for an additional score against the Chippewas. After an up-and-down junior campaign, Leidner's play in Quick Lane Bowl should provide plenty of optimism for the Golden Gophers entering 2016.
"That's leadership," Claeys said, per TwinCities.com. "You get in ballgames like that, it gets tight at the end, you've got to play to win, and your leaders do that. Mitch has stepped up and done that several times this year."
The coming season will provide Leidner with no shortage of opportunities to repeat those sort of efforts. Minnesota will certainly need it if it's going to make any headway in a Big Ten West that only appears to be improving.
7. Northwestern
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Although Northwestern's 10-2 regular season was one of the Big Ten's more pleasant surprises in 2015, the Wildcats ended their season on a sour note thanks to a 45-6 blowout loss to Tennessee in the Outback Bowl.
Was Northwestern good last season or was it just lucky? That's the answer the Wildcats will have to find as 2016 approaches.
The answer, like most things, is likely somewhere in the middle, although it's worth noting that Northwestern has plenty of key contributors returning in 2016. Quarterback Clayton Thorson is just a sophomore and running back Justin Jackson rushed for 1,418 yards in 2015, providing the Wildcats with experienced weapons to rely on in the coming year
Add in a defense that ranked 13th in the nation in 2015 and there's plenty of reason for optimism for Pat Fitzgerald's program. Still, that Outback Bowl blowout lingers and will leave a cloud of doubt hovering over Evanston, Illinois, until the 2016 season begins.
6. Nebraska
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Nebraska is the sixth-best team in the Big Ten? After a largely disappointing 5-7 regular season under head coach Mike Riley?
That might be a tough pill to swallow. But according to SB Nation's Bill Connelly, the Cornhuskers weren't as bad as they were unlucky last season. That was proved in their 37-29 win over UCLA in the Foster Farms Bowl, which provided Nebraska with plenty of momentum heading into 2016.
The Cornhuskers will return several key contributors to next season's team, including quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., the MVP of the Foster Farms Bowl who threw for 174 yards and a touchdown and rushed for 76 yards and an additional score against the Bruins. Nebraska will also return 11 of its top 13 tacklers on defense, providing continuity for the Blackshirts from 2015.
Despite what their record may show, the Cornhuskers appear to be trending upward. That could very well mean a big 2016 in Lincoln in their second year under Riley, as they attempt to reclaim the Big Ten West crown.
5. Michigan State
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As the reigning Big Ten champ, one would think that Michigan State would receive more of a benefit of the doubt.
But playing in one of college football's toughest divisions, there may not be a team facing more questions in the coming year than coach Mark Dantonio's Spartans.
That starts with the departure of quarterback Connor Cook, arguably the greatest quarterback in Michigan State history who led the Spartans to two Big Ten titles and three major bowl games, including wins in the Rose Bowl and Cotton Bowl and an appearance in this past season's College Football Playoff. Michigan State will also lose leading receiver Aaron Burbridge and star defensive end Shilique Calhoun, creating a lack of continuity on both sides of the ball that the Spartans have benefited from in the past three seasons.
"We've gotta pick up the pieces and move forward," Dantonio said following Michigan State's 38-0 loss to Alabama in the playoff semifinal Cotton Bowl.
Moving forward includes dealing with a division that includes expected playoff contenders in Ohio State and Michigan. The Spartans have proved plenty of doubters wrong under Dantonio already, but this might be their toughest challenge yet.
4. Wisconsin
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Lost in all of the madness of the Big Ten in 2015 was Wisconsin putting together a pretty impressive debut season under head coach Paul Chryst.
As the Badgers get running back Corey Clement back to full strength after injuries and off-field issues hampered his 2015 campaign, they should only improve their playoff chances in 2016. Even without Clement there to carry the load, Wisconsin managed a 9-3 regular season record, its only losses coming to Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern—all teams that won at least 10 games in 2015.
And with Clement? The Badgers looked like one of the Big Ten's best teams, as evidenced by their 23-21 win over USC in the Holiday Bowl, which saw Clement rush for 66 yards and a touchdown against the Trojans. Look for the senior running back to be a prominent piece of the Wisconsin offense in 2016, as Bart Houston replaces Joel Stave as the team's starting quarterback.
At this point, it's too early to call the Badgers the favorites to win the Big Ten West. But if Wisconsin finds itself in Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game come December, it shouldn't surprise many.
3. Iowa
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Entering 2015, more pundits had Kirk Ferentz on the hot seat than they did in contention for a Big West title. And very few—OK, probably none at all—had Iowa just a win away from playing in the College Football Playoff.
But that's exactly where the Hawkeyes found themselves before falling just short to Michigan State in the Big Ten title game. A 45-16 drubbing by Stanford in the Rose Bowl may have left a black mark on their season, but Iowa moves forward as a force to be reckoned with in the Big Ten West.
That rings especially true with quarterback C.J. Beathard returning to Iowa City after earning second-team All-Big Ten honors in 2015. What's more is that star cornerback Desmond King also opted to return for his senior season with the Hawkeyes, giving Ferentz arguably the top returning defensive player in all the Big Ten in 2016.
With both talent and experience on its side, Iowa should find itself favored to repeat in the Big Ten West. The division is only getting better, but for now, the Hawkeyes are still the team to beat.
2. Michigan
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Recording a 10-3 record that culminated with a 41-7 blowout win over Florida in the Citrus Bowl, it'd be tough to think of a better realistic base for Jim Harbaugh to put in place in his first season at Michigan.
Now it's time for the Wolverines to build on that foundation, with all indications being that Harbaugh's program will do just that.
Returning several key players, including safety Jabrill Peppers, cornerback Jourdan Lewis, running back De'Veon Smith and wideouts Amara Darboh and Jehu Chesson, Michigan will find itself as one of the more experienced teams in the Big Ten in 2016. The Wolverines will have to replace the production of quarterback Jake Rudock, who had one of the better second halves of any quarterback in the conference this past season, but if there's one position Harbaugh has shown the ability to develop on the fly, it's the one he used to play.
"This set a foundation for us," said Smith of his team's 2015 campaign following the Citrus Bowl. "We gotta carry this over into 2016."
Road dates against Michigan State and Ohio State could stand in the Wolverines' way, especially with both teams having beaten Harbaugh in his debut season in Ann Arbor on his home turf. But Michigan is a team on the rise not only in the Big Ten, but in the national landscape as well, and could very well find itself representing the conference in next season's College Football Playoff.
1. Ohio State
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After accumulating a 26-2 record in the past two seasons, there may not be a team in the Big Ten losing more than Ohio State, which saw nine underclassmen declare for the upcoming NFL draft, along with the departure of a senior class responsible for a 50-4 record in the past four seasons.
But the Buckeyes will not only return their most important player in quarterback J.T. Barrett, but one of the best coaches in college football history in Urban Meyer, who has recruited well enough that Ohio State doesn't rebuild—it just reloads.
"What does the future hold?" Meyer asked rhetorically in an early preview of the 2016 season. "The future's extremely bright."
Ohio State will need to see new key players emerge, much like they did in 2014 when the Buckeyes made an unexpected run and won the first-ever College Football Playoff. But that's exactly why Meyer's program finds itself where it does today—and why his ability to replace talent with more talent shouldn't be questioned.
With an out-of-conference date with Oklahoma set for the third week of the season, Ohio State will be tested early. But even with just six combined starters returning in 2016, the Buckeyes are once again the team to beat in the Big Ten.
Ben Axelrod is Bleacher Report's Big Ten lead writer. You can follow him on Twitter @BenAxelrod. Unless noted otherwise, all quotes were obtained firsthand. All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com. Recruiting rankings courtesy of 247Sports.com.
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