Predicting Every 2016 College Football Conference Champion
Every FBS football team has hopes of winning the College Football Playoff National Championship, but this isn't a realistic goal for most schools. Only a select list of contenders are truly in the running each year, leaving the rest to strive for other achievements.
Such as winning a conference title, a goal that's within reach of nearly every team in the country.
There are 10 conferences at the FBS level—five so-called "power" leagues and then five more lumped together on a second tier known as the "Group of Five." Compare and contrast them all you want, but each is its own entity, and thus whoever wins that conference stands out from the rest of the pack.
As part of the long list of "way-too-early" pieces that come out during college football's offseason, we've predicted the winner of all 10 FBS conferences for the 2016 season. Check them out, and if you think otherwise, let us know in the comments section.
ACC
1 of 10
Clemson
Six of its defensive players have declared for the NFL draft and another two starters are graduating, meaning Clemson is going to have to start from scratch on that side of the ball. But that's the same thing the Tigers did after the 2014 season, and they parlayed that into a 14-0 start and a trip to the national championship.
And any defensive losses are countered by the return of quarterback Deshaun Watson, running back Wayne Gallman and receiver Artavis Scott. All will be juniors in 2016, with Watson figuring to be a Heisman front-runner.
"He's only going to get better by the 2016 season," Bleacher Report's Ben Kercheval wrote of Watson. "Watson will be a third-year player and in his second year as a full-time starter. The arsenal of weapons around him will return almost entirely intact."
Clemson benefited from getting a rebuilding Florida State at home in 2015, but next season, it will travel to Tallahassee. That's the Tigers' only concerning road game, but they have the talent to survive it. They get Louisville, North Carolina State and Pittsburgh at home.
American
2 of 10
Houston
Houston was the darling of the Group of Five during the 2015 season, winning three games against power-conference teams, including against Florida State in the Peach Bowl. And that was in coach Tom Herman's first season, mostly using the players he inherited from predecessor Tony Levine.
The 2016 Cougars should be even better, since they'll be blending a great crop of returners—led by dual-threat quarterback Greg Ward Jr. and linebacker Steven Taylor—with what's shaping up to be a very strong recruiting class. Currently ranked 27th by the 247Sports composite, Houston has commitments from three top-100 players, including 5-star defensive tackle Ed Oliver.
No other team from the American Athletic Conference is currently ranked higher than 62nd in the 2016 recruiting class.
Houston gets two more games against power teams in 2016, facing Oklahoma at NRG Stadium and hosting Louisville in mid-November. It does have a loaded league road schedule, visiting Cincinnati, Memphis, Navy and SMU, but the Cougars actually played better on the road than at home last season.
Big 12
3 of 10
Baylor
The Big 12 just won the right to host a conference championship game in 2016, despite not having 12 teams or two divisions. Whether it will do so is still undecided, so for the time being, we're going to stick with the league's "One True Champion" being determined by whoever emerges from the nine-game round-robin schedule.
If not for a rash of injuries to its quarterbacks, Baylor might have been the one to come out on top. Instead, it lost three of four to end the regular season, relegated to using a wide receiver at QB before nearly abandoning the pass altogether.
A decimated Bears offense still managed to produce, and a full-strength unit in 2016 will power the team to the conference title even with the departure of top receiver Corey Coleman and No. 3 target Jay Lee. Junior running back Shock Linwood hasn't decided whether he's turning pro, but either way, the Bears will be stacked in the backfield with Johnny Jefferson, Devin Chafin and Terence Williams.
That compares favorably to the Big 12's other contenders, all of whom have larger pieces to replace. TCU starts over at quarterback after two outstanding years from Trevone Boykin, Oklahoma has to retool the league's top defense, and Oklahoma State has holes to plug on both sides of the ball.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Big Ten
4 of 10
Ohio State
With nine underclassmen declaring for the NFL draft to go along with another eight graduating starters, Ohio State will look different in 2016. Normally that would be a reason a team won't win a conference title, but the Buckeyes aren't like most teams.
"Ohio State will enter the 2016 season as the hunter rather than the hunted," wrote Bleacher Report's David Regimbal, noting that the upcoming team has a similar makeup to the 2014 one in that it had to replace numerous starters...and that one ended up winning the national title.
In some ways, Ohio State's overabundance of returners (and, apparently, quick-to-leave-for-the-NFL players) worked against it in 2015. The expectations were so high that they proved impossible to live up to, and once another national title was out of reach, the Buckeyes looked dominant in wins over Michigan and Notre Dame.
The 2016 team will have a lot of new starters, but one position it won't have to worry about is quarterback. J.T. Barrett should be firmly entrenched there, unlike last season when he and Cardale Jones went through a prolonged (and distracting) battle for playing time.
And that's the edge the Buckeyes will have on most of the other top teams in the Big Ten. Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State and Wisconsin all have to find a new starting quarterback.
Conference USA
5 of 10
Southern Mississippi
Conference USA might have been the worst overall league in the FBS in 2015, with eight teams finishing in the bottom 29 spots in Bleacher Report's final power rankings, including four rated 115th or worse out of 128 schools. But the conference also had some good ones at the top, including an old friend that had been away from the top tier for a while.
Southern Mississippi won the C-USA title in 2011, winning 12 games, then proceeded to go 4-32 over the next three seasons with a 23-game losing streak thrown in for good measure. But Todd Monken made a major turnaround in 2015, going 9-5 with a West Division title, and the Golden Eagles will return more than half of their starters.
That starts with quarterback Nick Mullens, who will head into his senior year needing 2,171 passing yards and 21 touchdowns to become the school's career leader. He had 4,476 yards and 38 TDs this past fall.
C-USA hasn't released its 2016 schedule yet, leaving Southern Miss unsure of its crossover opponents, though both Marshall and Western Kentucky will have some new pieces on offense. On the West side, though, Louisiana Tech loses quarterback Jeff Driskel and versatile running back Kenneth Dixon, who scored 87 TDs in his career.
Mid-American
6 of 10
Western Michigan
P.J. Fleck has rowed the boat at Western Michigan from a one-win season in 2013 to consecutive 8-5 campaigns, earning the program's first bowl victory in December. The next step on Fleck's journey should be a Mid-American championship, which the Broncos haven't won since 1988.
Western Michigan has produced 1,000-yard rushers each of the past two seasons, with both (sophomore Jarvion Franklin and freshman Jamauri Bogan) set to return. Same goes for quarterback Zach Terrell, a three-year starter who's likely to become the school's third passer to top 11,000 career yards next year.
And while the loss of 108-catch wideout Daniel Braverman will be large, the Broncos still have Corey Davis and his 235 career receptions.
The MAC is in a state of flux for 2016, with the other top teams from last season either changing coaches (Bowling Green, Toledo) or shuffling their assistants (Northern Illinois).
Mountain West
7 of 10
San Diego State
The Aztecs will bring the nation's second-longest active winning streak into the 2016 season, having ended this past year with 10 straight victories after a 1-3 start. All but one of those wins was by at least 14 points as they rolled through the Mountain West to win their first outright conference title since 1986.
Next season's San Diego State team could be even better, especially with the return of star running back Donnel Pumphrey and cornerback Damontae Kazee. Both opted to forgo the NFL draft to play their senior seasons, which should make SDSU as lethal on the ground and against the pass as in 2015.
Pumphrey finished seventh in the FBS with 1,653 rushing yards, and at some point in September he'll pass Marshall Faulk for the school career rushing record. Kazee, whose eight interceptions tied for second most in the country, is one of eight projected returners from a defense that picked off 23 passes and allowed fewer than 180 passing yards per game.
The only team that could stand in SDSU's way is Boise State, which will be loaded on offense but has to rebuild on the defensive side. Those teams wouldn't meet until the conference title game, which would be hosted by the higher-rated team in the rankings.
Pac-12
8 of 10
Stanford
The Pac-12 sent 10 of its 12 teams to bowl games in 2015, the highest percentage of any conference, but it was also the only power league not to get a playoff team, as that depth and balance prevented any team from escaping the gauntlet. More of the same seems possible in 2016, though a large exodus of talent will leave holes on every contender.
Stanford is high on that list, as it's set to lose eight starters on offense (including quarterback Kevin Hogan) and seven on defense. But because of one returning player, the Cardinal will remain the team to beat in the Pac-12.
Christian McCaffrey showed he can do it all, leading the conference in rushing, receptions by a running back and kickoff-return yards. That all translated into an FBS record for all-purpose yards, and with the Cardinal inserting newcomers all over the offense, he might be asked to do even more.
Of Pac-12 teams, only Washington State managed to hold McCaffrey to fewer than 220 all-purpose yards. And in 2016, Stanford gets the Cougars at home in early October. Meanwhile, Oregon is always a threat, but it has to replace Vernon Adams Jr. at quarterback.
SEC
9 of 10
Alabama
The last time Alabama was the defending national champion, it took a miracle play at the end of regulation in its regular-season finale for it to not win the SEC the following season. The Crimson Tide's league foes can only hope to be so lucky in 2016, since it figures to take some sort of craziness like that to keep them from repeating as conference champs.
Alabama is expecting to lose a slew of juniors to the NFL draft, though that's nothing new. It also has to find a quarterback, but again that's become old hat in Tuscaloosa. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has turned two straight first-time starters into passing stars, so there's no reason to think he can't do it again.
Though the Tide lose a number of players who rank among the best in school history—Heisman-winning running back Derrick Henry set the SEC single-season and school career rushing marks in 2015, while that defensive line will go down as an all-time great—the reinforcements could be just as good. Alabama was using former 5-star recruits with its third defensive unit during the national championship game, and Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer has referred to little-used freshman running back Bo Scarbrough as "the future of Alabama football."
'Bama's only Achilles heel the past two seasons in SEC play has been Ole Miss, as the Crimson Tide have lost twice in a row to the Rebels. The 2016 meeting is in Oxford, though Ole Miss must replace three potential first-round draft picks in offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil, receiver Laquon Treadwell and defensive tackle Robert Nkemdiche.
Sun Belt
10 of 10
Appalachian State
A three-time national champion at the FCS level, Appalachian State has been on a fast track to success since moving to the FBS two years ago. It went 7-5 that first season and followed that up with an 11-2 mark in 2015, finishing in second place in the Sun Belt behind Arkansas State.
The Mountaineers will continue their climb next season, using many of the same standouts who have helped make the jump from the FCS to FBS so seamless.
Quarterback Taylor Lamb threw 31 touchdown passes last year, while running back Marcus Cox has gained more than 2,800 yards and scored 30 total TDs in two years of FBS play. And the Appalachian State defense should return nine starters from a unit that was 11th nationally in yards allowed.
The Sun Belt had just three schools finish 2015 with a winning record, and the other two could be facing a transition year. League champ Arkansas State graduates its quarterback, leading rusher and top two receivers, while Georgia Southern lost its head coach to Tulane.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
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