Sorry, but We're Going Here: Answering NBA Midseason Questions Nobody Dares Ask
The 2015-16 NBA season's encroaching midpoint brings with it the usual unanswered questions.
Are the Golden State Warriors really the best team we've ever seen?
Can a healthy Cleveland Cavaliers squad put up more of a Finals fight than they did a year ago?
Is Russell Westbrook actually made out of a space-age polymer resin?
Unfortunately, the thing about midpoints is they come in the middle, which is before the end, which is where answers come from. So as we wait around for resolutions we can't get until June (or until Westbrook agrees to submit a tissue sample, as the case may be), let's try something.
Let's blow past the questions without answers and dig into the points of real intrigue: the questions most people don't even want to ask.
Let's go to there.
Is LeBron James a Top-3 Player Anymore?
It says something that answering this question in the affirmative requires ignoring the numbers.
When LeBron James was unquestionably the league's top player—during a period that roughly spanned from 2007-08 until 2013-14—you could make James' case however you wanted. The stats all said he was the best, and the eye test gave confirmation.
Things are different now.
The Cleveland Cavaliers man is still hovering around the top 10 in many catch-all metrics such as player efficiency rating, win shares, ESPN's real plus-minus and Basketball Reference's VORP. But he's not close to leading any of them. And it's an open secret that defense is now something he saves for the postseason.
He's getting his shots blocked at the rim more than ever, per Seth Partnow of the Washington Post. His free-throw rate is lower than it's been since his very first year in the league, and his perimeter shot has never been shakier.
This is not a condemnation of James. This is a nod to the aging curve.
You can still make the anecdotal case that James is skilled in ways no other player is, that his versatility and intellect remain unparalleled and that when he wants to he can still dominate both ends of the floor like no one else.
Only now, you have to make that case while staring at catch-all stats that say Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook (to name just four) have objectively outproduced him this season.
James is 31. The end of his time as a top-three player is here, and getting around that truth requires conveniently selective analysis.
Should the Warriors Relax a Little?
"A while, like four weeks," Stephen Curry told Ethan Sherwood Strauss of ESPN about the time it'll take his bruised left shin to heal. "I'm not going to sit out four weeks, so [I've] just got to figure out how to protect it while I'm out on the floor and keep playing."
That's a comment that should give concerned Warriors fans pause.
Anyone who's watched Golden State this year knows the team's success depends almost exclusively on Curry playing. The Warriors have been outscored on the season with Curry on the bench. Terrible, terrible things happen when he sits, per Marcus Thompson of Bay Area News Group:
The Warriors need Curry to be healthy when the games matter this spring. If he's hobbled or out altogether, Golden State's repeat chances are kaput.
The thing is, the games the Warriors are playing right now matter too. So letting Curry push through an injury is a risky play the Dubs have to make.
The San Antonio Spurs have been better than the Warriors for roughly the last six weeks—significantly so, per NBA.com.
Though Golden State remains four games ahead of the Spurs in the loss column, a bad week is all it'd take to erase that advantage.
As tempting as it is for the Warriors to relax and heal, giving away a few regular-season games in the process, they just can't do it. It may result in them entering the playoffs at less than full strength. But consider the alternative.
There are three powerhouses in the West: the Warriors, Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder. Whoever finishes with the top seed will only have to beat one of the remaining two to reach the Finals. The second seed will have to vanquish both.
Forget chasing 72 wins and an all-time net rating. The most important thing the Warriors can do in their pursuit of another ring is ensure they don't have to beat both OKC and San Antonio in the playoffs.
Scary as it is, the Warriors can't let up.
Why Are We Being so Stupid About Hack-a-Whoever?
The crusty, paternalistic "just make your free throws" refrain misses the point. This isn't an adapt-or-die mandate for DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond or the record-setting number of other intentional foul victims this season. This isn't about some overarching sense of fairness.
This is about recognizing two key points.
First, basketball is a game some Canadian dude created out of nothing in 1891, and its rules didn't exist until he made them up. Those rules have changed countless times in the intervening years. They were never sacred.
Second, NBA basketball is an entertainment product—a product whose goal is to appeal to fans so it can make money, pay players, build arenas, remind everyone that reading is fundamental and then make more money again.
So if fans don't enjoy watching boring stoppage after boring stoppage—and whatever disagreements there are on the topic, it's clear nobody enjoys watching Hack-A-Whoever games—there's a very simple solution.
Just change the rule.
Change the rule because it will make the game more entertaining, which is the whole point.
Change the rule because nothing says it should stay the same except for convention.
Change the rule because there's already a perfectly good rule that penalizes intentional fouling in the final two minutes of halves and games. And it works!
It's kind of embarrassing we've gone this long without implementing the most obvious fix.
Why's Everyone so Hard on OKC?
Success for the Oklahoma City Thunder isn't the same as it is for other teams in the league. If it were, we'd be perfectly satisfied by their clear status as the West's third-best team.
We're never happy with OKC, though. We use a specific formula to judge their success, a ratio of what it has achieved measured against what we think it should have achieved. It's an accomplishment-versus-perceived capability thing, and it feels kind of unfair.
We see the pair of top-five players in Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, the shot-blocking, floor-stretching game of Serge Ibaka and the bevy of talented role fillers scattered all over the roster. We see all that and suspect OKC, while great, could be a whole bunch greater.
Former coach Scott Brooks' vanilla offense was a hindrance, and it seems current coach Billy Donovan's approach is no better. We question the maddening stretches when both Durant and Westbrook sit out at the same time.
We watch this Thunder team and lament what they've left on the table.
One championship? Two? More?
Injuries have crippled Oklahoma City playoff runs, but even when the entire roster is relatively healthy, we're still not pacified. We still want more.
Maybe we've been looking at this the wrong way. Maybe this is just what the Thunder are.
Durant and Westbrook are both 27, and if they haven't committed to playing differently by now, why should we expect a change?
And why would we want one?
It's more fun to enjoy their unique brand of flawed excellence. So let's lay off begging for the Thunder to become something more.
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Stats courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference.com. Current through games played Jan. 6.
