Projecting College Football's Final Top 25 Teams
The 2015-16 college football season is winding down, which means soon the final Top 25 rankings will be released to outrage fans one last time before the long months of the offseason arrive.
Ahead of the College Football Playoff National Championship between No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Alabama, we've taken it upon ourselves to project what those final rankings will look like based on not only what happened during bowl season, but also during the regular season.
Keep in mind this is not my personal Top 25; that will be included in a final B/R poll after the national title game. Rather, this is a guess (maybe even an educated one) at what the final Associated Press poll will look like. This means drastic movements, up or down, will be few and far between. There are a lot of voters out there and plenty of varying opinions. By the time those are averaged out, you won't find many huge jumps or drops.
So send all complaints to AP voters, whose voting styles were heavy influences.
25. Western Kentucky
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What would a Top 25 poll, let alone one at the end of the season, be without a "Group of Five" team coming in at exactly No. 25? It was either that or Minnesota.*
(*Not really. But maybe.)
Western Kentucky finished 12-2 after beating South Florida in the Miami Beach Bowl. That's a solid win considering the Bulls were on a hot streak at the end of the regular season. The Hilltoppers are good, but some bowl results by teams either hanging outside the Top 25 or at the bottom of it shuffled the standings. Put simply, there's not a lot of room for Western Kentucky to go up.
The Hilltoppers moved around the perimeter of the Top 25 for part of the year. With 12 wins, they will make the final cut.
24. Florida
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Ten wins in Year 1 for Florida head coach Jim McElwain is quite an accomplishment. Without a doubt, he was able to get the Gators to overachieve.
Of course, Florida lost its last three games to Florida State, Alabama and Michigan—and by an average margin of 24.3 points per game. Perhaps this could have been foreseen. Maybe no one saw the Gators losing by so much, per se, but without a stable quarterback situation and with a thin offensive line, this team was running on fumes.
Finish the year with 10 wins, and it's going to be nearly impossible to land outside of the Top 25, but clearly, this is not the same team that upset Ole Miss in early October.
23. Tennessee
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Tennessee fits every component of the up-and-coming-Top 25-team-to-watch-next year mold.
A young roster with a super-high ceiling? Check.
A 9-4 record with a January bowl win over another Top 25 team? Check.
Plays in the SEC? Check.
Yeah, No. 23 feels about right. Rest assured the Volunteers will begin next season ranked much higher. However, in the wake of the whole Tennessee-will-be-overrated-again argument, remember its margin between 8-4 and 12-0 in the regular season was small—just 21 points.
This must also mean Northwestern is unranked, right? Well...more on that in a bit.
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22. Wisconsin
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Wisconsin's regular season was defined as one with plenty of wins but few of any noteworthiness. The Badgers didn't beat any team with a winning record and lost to Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern—teams that, to be fair, have a combined 35 victories.
That changed with a Holiday Bowl win over USC. Granted, the Trojans were finishing a down year, but there's a lot of talent on that team. For Wisconsin to keep USC's high-powered offense to 21 points was impressive.
Of course, the Badgers lost the defensive coordinator in charge of orchestrating one of the best units in college football over the last few years. Monday, LSU announced Dave Aranda would be joining the program in the same role.
21. Northwestern
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To address the immediate point: Yes, Northwestern is ranked ahead of Tennessee despite the fact the Wildcats lost badly to the Volunteers in the Outback Bowl. In fact, they're projected to finish two spots higher.
Again, this is not a personal ranking. This is an estimation of what will happen, and if voters have taught us anything, it's that head-to-head matchups sometimes don't trump the body of work. The biggest reason why Northwestern will remain ahead of Tennessee is the current margin in their respective rankings.
Leading into bowl season, the Wildcats were No. 12 while Tennessee was just outside the Top 25. By placing Northwestern at No. 21, the Wildcats have already dropped nine spots. Even after a 45-6 loss, that's considerable. The original gap may be too big for the Vols to leapfrog Northwestern.
Additionally, the Wildcats' 10-win season is nothing to ignore. Head coach Pat Fitzgerald put together a nice defense, but offense was too hard to come by this year. The fact that Fitzgerald got Northwestern to 10 wins without an offense is remarkable.
20. Navy
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Navy's always been the model of consistency, but a once-in-a-generation player like quarterback Keenan Reynolds can take a program from seven or eight wins to 11. That's exactly how many games the Midshipmen won in 2015. Their only losses? To Notre Dame and Houston. That's not too shabby.
However, Navy's best win wasn't as good as its losses. The Midshipmen had victories over Memphis, South Florida, Air Force and Pitt. It's not the greatest collection, but there are teams that did a lot worse.
Navy's option is tough to defend and became even tougher with Reynolds at the helm. The senior leaves college as the Football Bowl Subdivision leader in just about every major category related to rushing. In the Midshipmen's Military Bowl win over Pitt, Reynolds recorded his 88th career touchdown, the most by any player in FBS history.
19. LSU
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LSU did exactly what just about everyone expected it to do in the Texas Bowl: run all over Texas Tech.
Tigers running back Leonard Fournette reminded everyone how good he (and how bad the Red Raiders run defense) is with 212 yards and four touchdowns. It's probably not fair to say Fournette was the only good thing about LSU in 2015, but he was definitely the standout and carried the offense.
Some of the same things that have plagued the Tigers in recent years came back to haunt them late this season. Specifically, average quarterback play hurt when Fournette struggled to lead the offense during a three-game slide in November. On top of that, the LSU defense wasn't as stingy as it had been in previous years.
A 35-28 win over Florida midway through the season was the highlight, but a late collapse left fans wondering what could have been.
18. Oregon
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What an up-and-down year it's been for Oregon. The addition of high-profile transfer quarterback Vernon Adams Jr. gave Ducks fans hope the program could pick up where it left off after the departure of Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.
However, Adams sustained a finger injury early in the season, and Oregon offense suffered as a result. After a blowout loss to Utah and a surprising loss to Washington State, the Ducks were 3-3 midway through the year.
When Adams was finally healthy, though, Oregon cruised—winning its final six games, including ones over Stanford and USC. Though head coach Mark Helfrich's team didn't make the Pac-12 Championship Game, one could argue no one was playing better football in that conference by year's end.
Then it all came crashing down again in the Alamo Bowl. The Ducks blew a 31-0 halftime lead against TCU and lost 47-41 in triple overtime. Following the game, Helfrich made some changes to his staff, including demoting defensive coordinator Don Pellum to linebackers coach.
Oregon's 9-4 record is pretty good for a down year, but goodness, were the highs and lows extreme.
17. Oklahoma State
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Add Oklahoma State to the list of teams that overachieved this year. The Cowboys had close calls against Texas, Kansas State, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Iowa State before being overrun by Baylor and Oklahoma to end the regular season. The high point was a 49-29 win over TCU, then ranked fifth in the country.
However, a 48-20 blowout at the hands of Ole Miss in the Sugar Bowl isn't the way head coach Mike Gundy wanted to end the season. And it wasn't even that close. The defense gave up huge plays left and right while the offense was a couple of clicks off. Man for man, the Rebels were too much.
A bad loss like that will drop the Pokes a few spots, but the overall body of work is enough to warrant a Top 20 ranking. Oklahoma State was a Big 12 title sleeper when it entered November, but it didn't have the gas to finish like it needed.
16. Utah
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Utah had a tough stretch at the end of the year thanks to a season-ending injury to star running back Devontae Booker. The offense simply wasn't the same, and the Utes dropped two of their final three regular-season games.
Without Booker and stuck in a bowl it supposedly didn't want to be in against an opponent it didn't want to play, Utah seemed destined for a postseason disappointment. Instead, the Utes capitalized on five straight turnovers by BYU to start the game with 35 points.
That turned out to be a good thing because Utah didn't score once on its own after that and had to hang on for a 35-28 win. The Utes didn't need Booker, but only because the Cougars dug themselves into too deep of a hole.
Utah was a trendy pick for the playoff early in the season, but it lost some steam late. Still, a tough defense means this program will get Top 15 consideration.
15. North Carolina
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What can you say about a defense that gave up 645 yards rushing to a team running a modified version of the single-wing offense because it essentially didn't have a quarterback? That's how North Carolina ended its season against Baylor in the Russell Athletic Bowl.
The Tar Heels inexplicably dropped their season opener to South Carolina, then lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, but they were undefeated in between. Defensive coordinator Gene Chizik was the highlight addition of the year in college football before the bowl performance.
North Carolina had some decent wins, but two Football Championship Subdivision opponents never helped its cause. Despite 11 victories, losing to the banged-up Bears is enough to knock the Tar Heels down five spots.
14. Baylor
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Speaking of Baylor, it slides in one spot ahead of North Carolina following a 49-38 win in the Russell Athletic Bowl. Give head coach Art Briles and offensive coordinator Kendal Briles credit. They basically restructured the offense on short notice and went 1-1 with it.
November was brutal for the Bears because of all the injuries on offense; this was not the same team as the one that cruised through games in the beginning and middle part of the year. Perhaps in that sense, a Top 15 ranking is stretching it. Still, Baylor showed it can have a potent offense without a passing game. If you have great coaches and athletes, it makes patchwork efforts a lot easier to execute.
It doesn't matter what bowl it is or who it's against, if you rush for 645 yards in a game, that's going to get the attention of voters. The Bears should move up a few slots from No. 18.
13. Florida State
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Florida State went 10-3 and played in a New Year's Six bowl game. And this was a down year for the Seminoles.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher deserves far more credit than he's probably going to get for pushing this team to 10 wins. The defense was tops—second in the ACC in points per game allowed behind Boston College—but the quarterback rotation of Everett Golson and Sean Maguire made it tough to find a rhythm. Receivers underwhelmed, and the offensive line had trouble pass-protecting. The bright spot was running back Dalvin Cook, who can make a case as one of the most valuable players in college football.
Florida State was able to make a comeback against Houston in the Peach Bowl after falling behind early—slow starts have been a theme this year for the 'Noles—but it was outplayed and outcoached. Houston's an excellent team. There's really no shame in losing to the Cougars. But Florida State was never a Top 10 team.
12. Michigan
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Like Jim McElwain at Florida, Jim Harbaugh surpassed expectations at Michigan in Year 1 with a 10-3 record. As B/R colleague Ben Axelrod noted, that should scare everyone in the Big Ten because this won't be Harbaugh's most talented team in Ann Arbor.
A 41-7 win over the Gators in the Citrus Bowl, coupled with some ugly losses by teams ranked just ahead of them, should move the Wolverines up more than a few spots in the final poll. Like Florida State, Michigan isn't complete enough to be a Top 10 team, but it has some solid wins and zero bad losses.
In the fall, we'll see more of Harbaugh's stamp on the Wolverines. For his first year, though, he got the most out of his team.
11. Ole Miss
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And now we see what it looks like when Ole Miss' NFL-caliber talent breaks loose. It's beautiful. Unless you're the other team. Then it's awful.
The Rebels had no problems putting Oklahoma State away in the Sugar Bowl. As mentioned earlier, it wasn't even as close as the 48-20 final indicated. The talent gap and variance in execution made it look like the two sides were playing different games.
That performance is going to give Ole Miss a nice boost in the final rankings. Voters want to believe in the Rebels and their talent, but this team hasn't always made it easy. Ole Miss' spot in the Top 25 heading into bowl season (No. 16) will make it hard for the Rebels to crack the Top 10, but they'll be close.
10. Houston
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Houston might not be in a Power Five conference, but don't let that fool you. The Cougars have some skilled players, and they're well-coached by first-year boss Tom Herman. It shouldn't have been that much of a surprise they beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl.
The question has already been asked numerous times: How did Houston lose to UConn? For one, star quarterback Greg Ward Jr. was hurt. Two, traveling to Storrs is a bit like entering college football's Bermuda Triangle. There's no rational explanation, but somehow your compass isn't working, and then you've lost 20-17.
Still, the Cougars showed they could compete with the big boys while taking care of business in league play. November in the American Athletic Conference was tough, but Houston beat Memphis, Navy and Temple in the span of a few weeks.
Herman is being painted as the next big thing in coaching, and voters love the Cougars' role as college football's underdog. After a signature win, it's not unfathomable Houston cracks the Top 10.
9. Notre Dame
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All things considered, 2015 was an outstanding year for Notre Dame. Perhaps no team in major college football was more injury-prone than the Irish. Yet, running with basically their C squad, they came within six points of an undefeated regular season.
The Fiesta Bowl loss will knock Notre Dame down a spot, maybe two, but voters have shown love for this team's talent. Furthermore, the bowl game wasn't officially out of reach until late.
The Irish may have come up short in some big games, but they were never blown out, and their schedule ranked among the toughest in the country, per Jeff Sagarin. It'll be close, but don't be surprised if Notre Dame remains a Top 10 team at season's end.
8. Iowa
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Good job, good effort, Iowa.
The Hawkeyes' dream undefeated season lasted longer than anyone could have realistically imagined. Rip the schedule all you want, head coach Kirk Ferentz got his team to within one game—one play, even—of the playoff. There are plenty of other teams with easy schedules unable to say that.
But the Rose Bowl was over in the first quarter. One could say it was over when Stanford's Christian McCaffrey took the initial offensive play of the game to the house. It feels like voters have been ready to drop Iowa for a while. By getting to the Big Ten title game and nearly 13 wins, the Hawkeyes should stay in the Top 10. But that 45-16 loss to the Cardinal is enough to clear them from anything close to the Top Five.
7. TCU
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Putting TCU in the Top 10 just a couple of months ago would have been worthy of a double take. Thanks to numerous injuries, the Horned Frogs were in a free fall.
But a regular season-ending win over Baylor in a monsoon and a come-from-behind stunner for the ages over Oregon in the Alamo Bowl means TCU could sneak back into the Top 10—comfortably, even.
With all the injuries, attrition and off-field issues, it doesn't feel like the Frogs won 11 games, but here they are all the same. Head coach Gary Patterson did an unbelievable job. Even though TCU was loaded on offense and the preseason media favorite to win the Big 12, there's an argument to be made this was one of Patterson's better coaching jobs.
6. Michigan State
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Well, Michigan State's season certainly ended with an anticlimactic thud. The Big Ten champion and winner of 12 games never stood a chance against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl, losing 38-0.
"You wish you had another chance at it, but we're still a great team," Spartans offensive lineman Jack Conklin said, per Dan Murphy of ESPN.com. "We're 12-2. We're the No. 3 team in the nation. It sucks to go down like that, but we're going to keep fighting and we're going to learn from it."
The loss alone is going to drop Michigan State a few spots. The Spartans were No. 3 heading into the postseason, and while it's likely they will finish in the Top 10, it might not be pretty. This was a beatdown of epic proportions, and voters are going to react accordingly.
In fact, between Michigan State and Iowa, the top of the Big Ten could take a decent-size hit in the final rankings as Ohio State surges. Funny how these things work out.
5. Oklahoma
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It seems odd that Oklahoma would only drop one spot after losing by 20 points to Clemson in the Orange Bowl, but there are a few explanations for this.
First, the Sooners only fell behind in the second half. In fact, Oklahoma had a one-point lead on the Tigers heading into halftime. Secondly, the Sooners will be jumped by Stanford and Ohio State, teams that won big in their respective bowl games.
Finally, six teams ranked in the Top 10 lost, typically to other Top 10 opponents. There are only so many spots those teams can drop. And of those losses, it's arguable Oklahoma's was nowhere near the worst.
The Sooners were one of college football's hottest teams at the end of the regular season. Losing to the No. 1 team in college football in the final 30 minutes of the Orange Bowl shouldn't deter voters too much.
4. Ohio State
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Here's where things get interesting. How does one fully describe Ohio State? There are the obvious ways: supremely talented and well-coached. However, it's also true the Buckeyes didn't play to their potential until the final two games of the year (against Michigan and versus Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl).
By winning at the right time, Ohio State will likely jump Michigan State, which beat the Buckeyes for the right to go to the Big Ten Championship Game. Of course, there's always the question: If Ohio State and the Spartans played again, today, who would win?
It's a hypothetical, which makes it both hard to defend and argue against. Either way, it's completely reasonable to expect voters to place the Buckeyes in front of Michigan State despite their head-to-head loss. Ohio State has received the benefit of the doubt all year. Why would this suddenly be different?
3. Stanford
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Just because it was ranked outside the top four before the postseason, Stanford can make a nice jump to No. 3 following its Rose Bowl win over Iowa. As a result, the Cardinal would be the highest-ranked two-loss team.
When Stanford is clicking, it's difficult to stop. Running back Christian McCaffrey stated his case that he should have been the Heisman Trophy winner by tallying 368 all-purpose yards against the Hawkeyes. Expect him to be one of the preseason favorites to win the Heisman next year.
It's possible Ohio State jumps the Cardinal for the No. 3 spot; in that scenario, they should round out the top four. But Stanford will probably get the nod since its win was equally as impressive as the Buckeyes', if not more so.
2/1. Alabama and Clemson
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With only the national championship game remaining, it should be all but guaranteed that Alabama and Clemson finish No. 1 and No. 2. Since this is a projection of how others will vote and not my personal prediction for the game, it can only be said with certainty that the Tide and Tigers will finish in the top two in some order.
If this seems like a cop-out...well...you're not entirely wrong. However, there is more than enough time between now and Monday for you to get every opinion about how the national title game will unfold—and to debate those opinions.
Where there's no debate is that Alabama and Clemson are the two best teams in college football. One has perhaps the best defensive front seven of all time. The other is the lone remaining undefeated team. Pick your side—both are excellent choices.
Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All quotes obtained firsthand unless cited otherwise. All rankings reflect projections for the Associated Press Top 25.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
