CFP National Championship 2016: Key Matchups in Alabama vs. Clemson Clash

Ohio State did it after the 2014 season. Florida State did it following the 2013 campaign. Now it’s Clemson’s turn to do what nobody could for seven straight years from 2006-12—make sure the SEC doesn’t win the national championship. 

The SEC ascended to the top of everyone’s subjective conference rankings with the title run, but the other leagues have chipped away at its crown over the past couple of seasons. While the league regained some swagger with an impressive 8-2 mark in this year’s bowls, championships matter much more than Taxslayer Bowl victories.

If the Tigers plan on knocking off the Crimson Tide, it will come down to a handful of critical matchups. Here is a look at a few of them.

Deshaun Watson vs. Alabama’s Secondary

Alabama holds a 12-3 head-to-head advantage against Clemson and hasn’t suffered a loss to the Tigers since 1905. If there is one player talented enough to stop that streak, it is quarterback Deshaun Watson.

Watson boasts 3,699 passing yards, 1,032 rushing yards and 43 total touchdowns as a Heisman Trophy finalist. While he struggled to move the ball through the air at times against Oklahoma with a 51.6 percent completion mark for 187 yards, he ran for 145 yards and directed the offense in a 21-0 second-half surge.

He also earned the praise of Alabama coach Nick Saban in the process, per Alec Shirkey of SECCountry.com:

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First of all, (Watson) is an outstanding player. He does a great job of executing their offense. Tremendous dual-threat (ability) in terms of being a very good passer and rushing for over 1,000 yards this year. Really is a very good rhythm passer as well as a guy who can sustain plays and extend plays because of his athleticism and ability to scramble. Really as fine a dual-threat quarterback as we’ve played against for long, long time.

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Recent history suggests the Crimson Tide are vulnerable against dual-threat signal-callers considering they've lost to Chad Kelly, Cardale Jones, Trevor Knight, Nick Marshall and Johnny Manziel over the past few years. However, if Watson is going to add his name to that list, it will likely be because of his arm.

The Alabama run defense ranks first in the nation in yards allowed per game and held Kelly to a mere 21 rushing yards on eight carries in its only loss of the season. However, the Ole Miss quarterback threw for 341 yards and three scores and took advantage of a defense that was likely worried about his ability to make plays with his legs. 

That is a replicable formula for Watson. Whether he executes against the Alabama secondary while players like Tim Williams—who Alex Scarborough of ESPN.com called “a third-down menace and pass-rush specialist with the speed to blow by anyone”—focus on stopping Watson’s rushing could prove to be the difference in the game.

Derrick Henry vs. Clemson Defensive Line

LM Otero/Associated Press

Quarterback Jake Coker was Alabama’s star with 286 passing yards against a Michigan State secondary that proved to be the team’s Achilles' heel this year. He won’t have that luxury of facing a questionable defensive backfield in the title game.

Clemson’s pass defense ranked fifth in the nation in yards allowed per game (Michigan State’s finished 75th), and playmakers such as cornerback Mackensie Alexander have the talent to slow down wide receiver Calvin Ridley and company. That means the Crimson Tide will need Derrick Henry to carry the load after a relatively quiet Cotton Bowl by his elevated standards (75 rushing yards on 20 carries).

Henry won the Heisman Trophy by physically overpowering teams and wearing them down throughout the four quarters on his way to 2,061 rushing yards and 25 touchdowns. He is a bowling ball through the middle who thrives late in games when opposing defensive lines are tired of being bludgeoned by the Alabama offensive front.

The onus of containing him will fall to a Clemson defensive line that survived an injury to All-American Shaq Lawson during the victory over the Sooners. Players such as Carlos Watkins and Kevin Dodd carried the load and will need to do so again, even if Lawson is back and healthy. 

Depth is critical against Henry, and the combination of Lawson and the players who filled the void in his absence must create enough consistent penetration and occupy blockers to allow the linebackers to make plays in the backfield.

Clemson’s Special Teams vs. Alabama’s Special Teams

Adam Rittenberg of ESPN.com pointed to an alarming difference for the Tigers heading into the title game:

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Clemson ranks 126th out of 127 FBS teams in expected points added through special teams (minus-45.31), mainly because its coverage teams struggle. That's troublesome against Alabama, which ranks 26th nationally in EPA through special teams (19.8) and boasts one of the nation's best punt returners in Cyrus Jones, who averages 12.6 yards per runback with four touchdowns, including one against Michigan State in the semifinal. An ACC coach recently said of Clemson's special teams, "It could kill them. That could be the difference if somebody gets them on it." Alabama could be that team.

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Special teams are rarely thought of as a potential reason for a loss until something actually goes wrong, and the numbers are concerning for Clemson. At least the Tigers have a slight statistical advantage on field goals considering Greg Huegel was 25-of-29 on field-goal attempts this year, while Alabama’s Adam Griffith was 22-of-30.

Still, these are fairly evenly matched teams with stars on both sides of the ball. A close game could come down to one Jones punt return (he broke Michigan State’s back in the Cotton Bowl with his return touchdown), or even something as overlooked as field position.

Stopping Henry or Watson is hard enough on its own. The last thing these respective defenses need is to start with their backs against their own end zone with the game on the line because of lackluster special teams play.