Which College Football Playoff Participant Is Most Likely to Be Back Next Year?
The College Football Playoff system is still relatively new, but one thing we've already come to expect each year is a repeat participant.
Alabama has played in both playoffs so far, losing to eventual champion Ohio State in last year's semifinals in 2014 before earning a spot in the title game this time around. The Crimson Tide did this despite having to replace more than half their starters, much like Florida State did in going from the final BCS champion to one of the first playoff teams.
If this limited amount of history tells us anything, it's that one of the four teams that was in contention for the 2015 national title is going to be in the hunt again next season. But which team will it be?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Based on expected losses, projected returners and the paths they have to take in 2016, the smart money is on Clemson to be the repeat participant next time around.
Follow along as we go into more detail explaining this choice, as well as why the other three playoff entrants are less likely to make it through.
Holes to fill
| Alabama | 11 | 0-4 |
| Clemson | 5 | 1-5 |
| Michigan State | 12 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 6 | 2 |
As many as 15 of Alabama's key contributors will be gone after Monday, assuming the quartet of running back Derrick Henry, tight end O.J. Howard and defensive linemen Jonathan Allen and A'Shawn Robinson declare for the draft. The Crimson Tide are used to mass departures, and their depth is among the best around, though having to replace a Heisman-winning quarterback and the majority of what Bleacher Report's Adam Kramer calls "college football’s deepest, most freakish and scariest collection of human beings" on the D-line aren't run-of-the-mill tasks.
Michigan State might be in the most dire situation of the playoff teams in terms of losses. Several of the Spartans' top performers in 2015 were players who opted to return to school for their senior year rather than turn pro, such as quarterback Connor Cook and defensive end Shilique Calhoun, and they proved integral to the Big Ten title and semifinal bid.
Oklahoma loses its best wide receiver in Sterling Shepard, who caught nearly as many passes as the Sooners' next two best targets, though their offense otherwise returns nearly intact. That's important, since Oklahoma's defense is losing almost every impact player.
And in a league like the Big 12, where scoring 30 points per game was below-average, having impact defenders is necessary to survive the gauntlet.
Based on sheer numbers, Clemson should have a decided advantage in the returning starters department over the other three playoff teams. Even with the likely departure of three juniors (safety Jordan Kearse, tight end Jordan Leggett and defensive end Kevin Dodd) and redshirt sophomore cornerback Mackensie Alexander, the returning pieces are more than good enough to carry the load.
Of the Tigers' holes, the most significant will come on defense. Edge-rusher Shaq Lawson has already declared for the NFL draft, and the four players listed above figure to do so not long after Monday's title game. Throw in graduating seniors at defensive tackle (D.J. Reader) and linebacker (B.J. Goodson), and they'll have to do some tinkering with that unit.
But that's why Clemson pays defensive coordinator Brent Venables more than $1.4 million, according to USA Today's assistant coach salary database.
Questions to answer
There's far more to maintaining success than just plugging holes. They have to be filled by the right players, ones that fit alongside the returning pieces and can work together in a similar fashion, or else changes need to be made to the system to get the right mix.
Alabama's most pressing offseason question figures to be about its quarterback position, which for the fourth year in a row will be held by a different player. Gone are the days of having two- and three-year starters like Greg McElroy and AJ McCarron, as the Tide's last two primary QBs were in their first year in such a role.
Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has worked wonders with these new starters, turning Blake Sims into a record-setter and then developing Jake Coker into just what the 2015 Tide needed, but now there will be another competition that, based on recent history, won't get settled until August.
Michigan State might want to study how Alabama handled itself at quarterback after McCarron moved on, since it's what the Spartans face this offseason. Connor Cook was the winningest quarterback in school history, and though MSU managed to win at Ohio State when he was hurt, that doesn't ensure things will go smoothly in 2016.
Matt Charboneau of the Detroit News broke down the impending quarterback competition, MSU's first since Cook beat out Andrew Maxwell in 2013:
"This (quarterback competition) will be intriguing and will almost certainly have its roots in winter conditioning, run through spring practice and go into preseason camp. Tyler O’Connor will likely be the early favorite, a fifth-year senior to be that has the knowledge of the offense no other quarterback does. He’ll be pushed by Damion Terry, who will be a junior, and redshirt freshman Brian Lewerke. True freshman Messiah deWeaver is also sure to grab his share of headlines.
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Clemson has to hope it can plug and play a series of new starters on defense and keep that unit performing at the same level. There are signs this is possible, as freshmen Austin Bryant and Christian Wilkins have looked great when stepping in on the line, though the secondary will have some question marks heading into the 2016 season.
That's the same situation Oklahoma is finding itself in for next season, hoping that the improvement shown on defense can continue despite major contributors moving on. However, the Sooners' biggest issue could be their offensive line, which in many ways kept their offense from being even better in 2015.
Quarterback Baker Mayfield was sacked 39 times, and now he's losing his two best blockers, including center Ty Darlington. As much as Mayfield was able to make something out of nothing, Oklahoma's Air Raid attack would have been far more effective had he been able to sit in a pocket a little longer.
2016 schedule
| Alabama | 7/4/1 | 9 (4/4/1) | 97-58 |
| Clemson | 7/5/0 | 5 (3/2/0) | 67-81 |
| Michigan State | 7/5/0 | 8 (5/3/0) | 90-61 |
| Oklahoma | 6/4/2 | 8 (4/3/1) | 87-67 |
In analyzing the upcoming schedules for the playoff teams, it's clear that Clemson has the easiest path to return to the semifinals. The Tigers only face five teams that made bowl games in 2015, the benefit of being on what's suddenly become the weaker side of the ACC, and only two of their five road games will be against winning teams from a year ago.
That starts with an opener at Auburn and also includes a trip to Florida State, though when that game will be held is to be determined, as the ACC has yet to release its 2016 schedule. Clemson's toughest home game will be against Louisville, a fast-riser at the end of this past season, and beyond that it looks like a very manageable schedule.
But that also means the Tigers could have the least room for error. It might take another perfect record for them to return to the playoffs because of the lack of quality opponents, at least based on how they fared in 2015.
For the rest of this year's playoff participants, the upcoming schedules are strong enough to where each could withstand a loss—depending on when and to whom—and still make it back. Though, each will be hard-pressed to get through those slates with just one setback.
With the Big Ten moving to a nine-game schedule in 2016, the additional crossover game adds meat to Michigan State's lineup. In addition to the Big Ten foes it will face from the East Division (including Michigan and Ohio State at home), it will host both Northwestern and Wisconsin. The Spartans' toughest conference road game should be the regular-season finale at Penn State, as their other trips are to Illinois, Indiana and Maryland.
They also visit Notre Dame in mid-September, the start of 11 straight games after being handed an unfavorable Week 2 bye.
For Alabama, it's the same old story in terms of competition. The SEC won a record eight bowl games in 2015-16, and six of those bowl winners are on the Crimson Tide's schedule, with four (Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss and Tennessee) on the road. The Tide also have their nearly annual neutral-site clash to start 2016, this one against USC in Arlington, Texas, followed by a home opener against a Western Kentucky team that won 12 games a year ago.
Schedule of strength will never be a problem for Alabama but at the same time, that also makes it hard to project it as a certain playoff team because of the quality of the opponents it will face.
But the Tide won't have the toughest schedule among this year's playoff teams. That distinction belongs to Oklahoma, which, in addition to the full slate of Big 12 games, has a loaded nonconference portion.
The Sooners open against Houston, which went 13-1 and beat Florida State in the Peach Bowl, in NRG Stadium in Houston. Two weeks later, they host Ohio State, followed by a bye and then the Big 12 opener at TCU. A week later is the annual clash with Texas in Dallas, and there are also trips to Texas Tech and West Virginia, as well as November visits from Baylor and Oklahoma State.
Final thoughts
If one team had to be chosen from this year's playoff entrants, Clemson is your best bet. But as Ohio State showed us, there's no such thing as a stone-cold lock.
The Buckeyes brought back so much talent from their national championship team and faced such an unimposing schedule in 2015 that it was hard to imagine a scenario where they wouldn't get to defend that title in the semifinals. The only thing that could stop Ohio State's return to the playoffs was the team itself, which is exactly what ended up happening.
On paper, Clemson is in the best position to make a return trip to the playoffs. Thankfully, though, bids aren't awarded based on expectations, projections and hypotheticals.
Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
