Biggest X-Factors to Watch for in College Football National Championship Game

After months of separating the good from the not as good, we're down to the final two teams in the hunt for college football's national championship. Top-seeded and unbeaten Clemson will take on No. 2 Alabama on Monday, and after some lopsided semifinal games, we're all hoping the title bout is a little more intriguing.

Based on what the Tigers and Crimson Tide will bring to the turf at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, we should be in good shape.

Clemson is riding a school-record 17-game winning streak, while Alabama has won 11 in a row by more than 23 points per game. Clemson is attempting to become the first team in FBS history to go 15-0, but to do so it will have to prevent Alabama from winning its fourth national title in the last seven seasons.

How will this game be decided? Here's a look at the biggest X-factors to watch for in the national championship game.

Shaq Lawson's Health

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Clemson defensive end Shaq Lawson is headed to the NFL after the championship game, having declared his intentions to turn pro last month. He's leading the team in sacks (10.5) and tackles for loss (23.5), landing one of the five sacks the Tigers had of Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield in the Orange Bowl.

But Lawson also injured his knee in the first quarter of that game and didn't play the final three quarters. According to Dan Hope of Orange and White, he was at practice on Tuesday wearing a brace, and head coach Dabo Swinney is "very optimistic" the 6'3", 270-pound junior will play against Alabama.

Lawson is a key piece of Clemson's defensive line. He is one of those rare players who is dominant against both the run and the pass. He can move around from outside in, depending on the play, something his replacements aren't as adept at.

Freshman Austin Bryant played well in Lawson's absence, but Clemson needs its best down lineman available to plug holes Alabama's Derrick Henry will try to run through. At the same time, expect the Crimson Tide to go after Lawson with cut blocks, hoping to throw him off balance.

Quarterback Play

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The quarterbacks who will start the national championship game are about as different as you can get. Alabama senior Jake Coker is a prototypical pro-style passer who works the pocket and only takes off when absolutely necessary—a complete contrast to ultra-mobile Clemson sophomore Deshaun Watson.

Watson has run for 1,032 yards and 12 touchdowns this season, topping 100 yards on the ground in five of Clemson's last six games. Coker has a total of 88 rushing yards this season, with 58 coming in one game, and he's scored on a run just twice.

Watson has the better overall passing numbers as well, though Coker is coming off a masterful Cotton Bowl performance in which he was 25-of-30 for 286 yards with two TDs. He hasn't thrown an interception in the past four games, a stretch during which Watson has been picked off four times.

With Michigan State keying so much on trying to stop running back Derrick Henry, this left Coker open to do his thing, and he shined. Clemson ranks ninth nationally in pass defense—its secondary is loaded with playmakers—and Coker might not be able to operate as freely as he did last time out.

Alabama is fourth in FBS in opposing quarterback rating and first overall in sacks with 50, but Watson has only been sacked 13 times thanks to his propensity to run.

"In a game that clearly will focus on quarterbacks, Watson is the type of dual-threat player that has given Alabama’s aggressive, man-under defense problems over the years," Sporting News' Matt Hayes wrote.

Containing the Run

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On one side, you have the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Alabama junior Derrick Henry, whose 2,061 rushing yards are the most in SEC history. On the other side is underrated Clemson sophomore Wayne Gallman, who has gained 1,482 yards, yet quarterback Deshaun Watson and his running ability often overshadow him.

Alabama has shown it's willing to ride Henry, to the tune of 90 combined carries in the Iron Bowl and SEC championship game, but against Michigan State, he was more of a decoy and ran it only 20 times for 75 yards. The Crimson Tide's 154 rushing yards were their fewest since Oct. 24, but that was by design.

Don't expect 'Bama to leave its trophy-winning rusher on the shelf in the final, and Clemson knows this. Stopping the run isn't exactly a weakness for the Tigers, but they're not as good in that area as in defending the pass. They've allowed 15 rushing touchdowns, 11 in the last seven games, and five of their last seven opponents have gained at least 135 yards.

Alabama's run defense is No. 1 in FBS, at 70.79 yards allowed per game. Georgia and Tennessee were the only teams to top 100 yards on the ground, and those efforts happened in October.

Special Teams

Special teams are frequently the most overlooked part of a game, but Alabama and Clemson are teams that spend plenty of time thinking about them—sometimes a little too much.

Clemson punter Andy Teasdall apparently tried to freelance a fake punt during the ACC Championship Game but only gained four yards on 4th-and-15. That earned him a very visible tongue-lashing from coach Dabo Swinney, but then in the Orange Bowl, Teasdall redeemed himself by throwing a 31-yard pass to defensive tackle Christian Wilkins.

"I didn’t let that play (in the ACC Championship Game) define me, and I won’t let this play define me," Teasdall told Gene Sapakoff of the Post and Courier.

Alabama's special teams have shown major improvement as the season has progressed, going from a liability early on—when a pair of fumbled kickoffs contributed to the team's 43-37 home loss to Ole Miss—to a major asset. Much of that is due to the play of senior Cyrus Jones, who has returned a school-record four punts for touchdowns this season.

His 57-yard punt return score early in the second half broke open the Cotton Bowl.

Third Down

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Every down matters, yet third down is often the most critical because it can determine whether a drive will continue or come to a halt. Clemson is one of the best teams in the country at converting on third down, as its 47.69 percent rate ranks 13th overall, while Alabama is 96th at 36.22 percent.

Each school is strong on the defensive side with third down, ranking second (Clemson) and fifth (Alabama) in FBS, though Clemson's last four opponents have each converted at least 35 percent of the time. Alabama's last four foes are a combined 8-of-52 on third down, and four of those conversions were by Michigan State in a 38-0 loss.

Alabama has had more success running the ball on third down than throwing it, with 36 first downs on 86 rushes compared to 33 first downs on 111 pass attempts. Clemson is almost automatic on 3rd-and-short, converting 47 of 68 times when it has three or fewer yards to gain.

Turnovers

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Clemson could end up being the first team to win a national title in the BCS/College Football Playoff era with a negative turnover margin. It's improved from minus-three to minus-one since the end of the regular season, but the Tigers have given the ball away 26 times in 14 games.

That's the same number of turnovers that Alabama has forced this season while losing it just 17 times. Only one of those has come in the Crimson Tide's last four games, and they sit at plus-nine for the year.

Strangely, Clemson is much better taking care of the ball against better teams. Brandon Rink of the Independent Mail noted that Clemson is plus-seven against teams that finished in the top 10 of the playoff rankings (Notre Dame, Florida State, North Carolina and Oklahoma) and minus-eight against everyone else.

All statistics courtesy of CFBStats.com, unless otherwise noted.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.