Fiesta Bowl 2016: Bold Predictions and X-Factors for Notre Dame vs. Ohio State
A pair of traditional powerhouses in Notre Dame and Ohio State collide Friday in a 2016 Fiesta Bowl that feels more like a consolation game.
Notre Dame and Ohio State entered this season with national title aspirations. Instead, late-season losses derailed each team’s College Football Playoff chances.
Despite the disappointment, this is a New Year’s Six bowl game, and each team will want to end its season on a high note.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Let us take a look at some projections and important elements surrounding this showdown between two of the nation’s most talented rosters.
Bold Predictions
Both Teams Will Score Over 35 Points
Notre Dame boasts a proficient offense and a solid defense, while Ohio State enters with a stout defensive unit and an offense that struggled to find a rhythm for most of the season. Yet, the pieces are in place for this game to turn into a shootout.
Per ESPN.com, Notre Dame ranks second nationally in offensive efficiency. Led by quarterback DeShone Kizer and running backs C.J. Prosise and Josh Adams, the Fighting Irish rely on a dynamic run game to utilize their powerful offensive line and Kizer’s dual-threat ability.
Ohio State is second nationally in points allowed per game with a defense loaded with NFL prospects. However, the team is looking vulnerable in the middle of its defensive front. Star defensive tackle Adolphus Washington is suspended for the bowl game while fellow interior lineman Tommy Schutt, a key contributor, is out due to injury.
The Notre Dame rushing attack should be able to exploit this weakness, as the offensive line will create a solid push for Adams and Prosise to gash the defense. Ohio State also struggled with running-quarterbacks lesser than Kizer. Indiana’s Zander Diamont, with 98 yards and a touchdown, and Maryland’s Perry Hills, recording 170 yards and two scores, found holes in the Buckeye defense that Kizer could discover as well, especially if his running backs are gaining yards through the middle.
Such success in the running game gives big-play receiver Will Fuller more space downfield, which could generate more big plays for Notre Dame.
As for Ohio State, its offense appeared to find a groove against Michigan. J.T. Barrett is now the undisputed starter, giving stability to the attack.
Against a defense giving up 166 yards a game on the ground, star running back Ezekiel Elliott is in line for a big day, especially after going for over 200 yards on a much tougher Michigan defense.
With Elliott rolling, Barrett should be able to find space to run and throw. Look for all-purpose receiver Jalin Marshall to create some big plays, as he presents a severe matchup problem for Notre Dame.
When this offense finds its balance, it is almost impossible to stop. It should have no problem keeping up in a high-scoring affair.
Cardale Jones Will Score a Touchdown
Cardale Jones started for the Buckeyes for most of the season, but inconsistent play allowed Barrett to reclaim the quarterback job.
Even though Barrett will be running the show Friday, do not think Jones will stand on the sideline for the entire game. With Jones announcing his decision to enter the 2016 NFL Draft, expect head coach Urban Meyer to find ways to utilize his talented backup quarterback.
Jones’ size and strength make him an ideal candidate for some goal-line work. In 2015, Jones carried the ball six times for 17 yards and a touchdown inside the red zone. That average is not great, but Ohio State’s advantage up front combined with Jones’ adrenaline when playing in his final game should see those numbers increase against Notre Dame.
His passing statistics in the red zone were also unimpressive, which is a significant reason why Barrett started to become the red-zone quarterback later on in the season. Jones finished with just 36 yards and two touchdowns on 5-for-14 throwing. Ohio State will likely not put Jones in a dropback passing situation, but look out for the jump pass that Meyer uses every now and then.
Could we even see some double-passes involving Barrett and Jones? Perhaps, as Meyer likes to get creative on offense. Whatever the case may be, the coach will find a way to get Jones into the end zone in his final game.
Elliott Will Own the Second Half
If the first prediction above holds true, the Fiesta could feature some fireworks due to the offensive advantages both teams possess.
In such a case, Ohio State will look to slow down a bit and control the ball in the second half, which Elliott is perfect for.
Elliott averaged 5.2 yards per carry this season in the first half of games, which is admirable. In the second half, that number elevated to 7.4 yards a carry, and Elliott also scored 10 of his 19 rushing touchdowns in the game’s second frame.
With an already-penetrable Notre Dame defense starting to wear down in the second half, Elliott will be able to break off huge runs down the stretch. If Ohio State runs the ball the same way it did against a stronger Michigan defense, Elliott could push for 200 yards on the ground Friday.
Great players dominate when the game matters most, and Elliott’s second-half numbers this season reinforce that sentiment.
X-Factors
Ohio State’s Interior Defensive Line
As previously noted, Ohio State will be down its two primary contributors on its interior line, particularly a stalwart in Washington. This leaves the defense exposed in an area Notre Dame is capable of exploiting.
The Buckeyes lack experience behind Schutt and Washington. Senior Joel Hale and Michael Hill appeared in every game this season, but they only combined for 22 tackles and one tackle for loss compared to the 64 combined tackles and 12 for loss of Schutt and Washington.
ESPN’s Ted Miller predicts Hale and Hill will get the first crack at holding down the middle of the defensive line, with fellow reserves Donovan Munger and Tracy Sprinkle also chipping in.
If these players struggle, Notre Dame will have no problem running the ball with Adams and Prosise, especially with the threat of Kizer keeping the ball for big yards out on the edge.
Notre Dame has one of the nation’s better offensive lines and Ohio State cannot afford too much attention toward the middle of its defense with the playmakers the Fighting Irish possess on the outside. This should allow Notre Dame’s running game to take advantage of the mismatch to get its offense rolling.
Look for Ohio State to move star defensive end Joey Bosa to the middle later in the game to force some havoc inside.
Turnover Margin
While its offense proved to be efficient, Notre Dame had issues with turnovers.
The Fighting Irish carry a turnover margin of minus-five into the Fiesta Bowl, which puts them tied at 97th nationally. In its two losses, Notre Dame finished minus-four in turnover margin.
Ohio State was not great either with turnovers, but it was better than Notre Dame with its plus-two margin. This came in large part because of Jones’ eight interceptions compared to Barrett’s three.
Notre Dame (nine picks) and Ohio State (eight interceptions) are not too stingy defensively. Thus, any turnovers will likely come from offensive mistakes rather than defensive triumphs.
This favors Ohio State. While Kizer will likely have a strong running game at his disposal, he is still a freshman quarterback prone to making mistakes, which is evident in his nine interceptions this season. The Buckeyes will also feature arguably the fastest secondary Kizer has faced in his young career.
Barrett, who will also have a reliable running game to work with, has more experience and a better history of taking care of the ball than Kizer. This will allow Ohio State to win the turnover battle, which will be key in a tight game.
Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
Fighting Irish linebacker Jaylon Smith, the 2015 Butkus Award Winner, is the best defensive player Ohio State will play against and arguably its toughest individual matchup.
The 6’2” junior is physical, quick and incredibly rangy. This should allow Smith to stay with Elliott from sideline-sideline as the linebacker will likely be tasked with stopping Ohio State’s electric rusher.
Smith appears ready for the challenge and commented on his counterpart, per Bill Landis of Cleveland.com.
"I think Ezekiel is a great running back. More downhill, physical at contact. It's gonna be a great challenge. You look at the big plays that occurred, they happened on missed tackles. He's a physical runner, and we have to tackle."
Tackling will be instrumental in any effort of stopping Elliott. Smith should be up to that task with his 113 stops on the year, but his teammates will need to pick their games up.
Ohio State will prefer to run Elliott behind All-American tackle Taylor Decker. This matchup with Smith will go a long way in determining Notre Dame’s ability to stop Elliott, but Ohio State has the advantage since Elliott will be too much for Smith’s teammates once he eats up a blocker or two.
All statistics are courtesy of CFBstats.com unless noted otherwise.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
