Orange Bowl 2015: Final Odds and Prediction for Oklahoma vs. Clemson

The College Football Playoff is finally here, with the Oklahoma Sooners and Clemson Tigers kicking things off in the Orange Bowl. 

Clemson has been the No. 1 team in the playoff rankings since they were first released in November and is the only undefeated FBS team left. The Tigers have been on the cusp of this stage for years, winning at least 10 games the previous four seasons before it all came together in 2015 for head coach Dabo Swinney. 

Oklahoma emerged out of the shadows, starting the season ranked 19th in the Associated Press Top 25, and looked buried after an Oct. 10 loss against Texas. Head coach Bob Stoops got his Sooners to respond in spectacular fashion, leading them to seven consecutive wins by an average margin of 32.6 points. 

Favorite	Over/Under
Oklahoma (-4)	63

Orange Bowl Prediction

Despite having a perfect record, Clemson enters the Orange Bowl as an underdog. It's the first time in 2015 the Tigers have not been favored, which speaks to how well Oklahoma has been playing since losing to Texas. 

Yet even with the Sooners' high-powered offense, they shouldn't feel comfortable on their perch. Clemson destroyed Oklahoma 40-6 in last year's Russell Athletic Bowl. It's worth pointing out Oklahoma had Trevor Knight starting at quarterback, but the counterargument is that Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson missed the game due to a torn ACL. 

In many ways, Clemson has defied conventional logic by being undefeated this season because it has a negative turnover margin (minus-two). According to Jon Solomon of CBS Sports, that stat doesn't bode well for the Tigers' chances on Thursday:

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The turnover margins for the CFP teams: Michigan State plus-16, Oklahoma plus-10, Alabama plus-7 and Clemson minus-two. In the BCS/CFP era, all five teams that didn't have a positive turnover margin lost their semifinal or title game. Florida State and Alabama each lost semifinal games in 2014 after entering with negative turnover margins. The past 17 national champions had an average turnover margin of plus-11.

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It speaks to the talent Swinney has accumulated on defense that Clemson didn't need to worry about the turnover margin this season. 

Sticking with that Tigers defense, which seems to have gotten lost in the shuffle because talking about offense is more fun, Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com highlighted the ways opposing quarterbacks have struggled against Clemson. 

"Clemson has excelled at pass efficiency defense this season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 46 percent of their passes, No. 1 in the nation," Adelson wrote. "That also ranks better than any other pass completion percentage defense since at least 2007."

As good as Mayfield has been overall in 2015, he's looked awful at times. The star junior completed nine of 20 attempts against TCU on Nov. 21, but he got away with it thanks to two touchdown passes and Samaje Perine running for 188 yards. 

There are questions for Clemson's offense to answer, specifically at wide receiver. Breakout star Deon Cain was one of three players suspended for the playoffs after failing a drug test, according to ESPN Radio's Price Atkinson.

Richard Shiro/Associated Press

Cain has been Clemson's big-play threat on the outside, averaging a team-high 17.1 yards per reception. ESPN Stats & Info highlighted how vital Cain has been to Watson's success down the stretch:

Watson has the advantage over Mayfield because he can make plays with his arm and legs. Clemson's quarterback had 3,517 yards passing and 887 yards rushing. Oklahoma's defense hasn't gone against a dynamic playmaker at quarterback like Watson all season. 

Keep in mind, too, that Oklahoma's defense didn't have to face TCU's Trevone Boykin and Baylor's Seth Russell because those quarterbacks were out with injuries. Despite facing backups, the Sooners won those two games by a combined 11 points. 

Clemson has more talent on both sides of the ball, more ways to utilize its best offensive weapon (Watson) and a defense that knows how to bring pressure on the quarterback. 

Oklahoma is not lacking in playmakers on offense, but putting the defense against a quarterback with Watson's diverse skill set is a test that unit hasn't faced yet. 

Clemson 38, Oklahoma 34