College Football Playoffs 2016: Last-Minute Odds and Predictions for Semifinals
Forget singing "Auld Lang Syne." College football will be taking over New Year's Eve playoff style. The traditional tune can be replaced by chants of Roll Tide, Sparty, All In and Boomer Sooner.
The four schools fortunate enough to have been chosen to play in the second College Football Playoff will all vie for a spot in the national championship game as the country brings in the new year.
Almost a month's worth of anticipation will finally come to an end with the kickoff of the Orange Bowl. Here's a look at the complete TV schedule for the playoff along with the latest lines from Odds Shark.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
| Dec. 31 | 4 p.m. | ESPN | Orange Bowl | No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Oklahoma | OU (-4) |
| Dec. 31 | 8 p.m. | ESPN | Cotton Bowl | No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Michigan State | Bama (-9.5) |
Clemson Wins Close One vs. Oklahoma
Despite the rankings, the Oklahoma Sooners enter the game as the favorite over the undefeated Clemson Tigers. In fact, the line has even moved 2.5 points since opening with Oklahoma as 1.5-point favorites, according to Odds Shark.
It's understandable that Oklahoma is the favorite. After all, no team finished hotter than the Sooners. Oklahoma ran into the playoff on the strength of seven straight wins in which they averaged 52 points per game.
Considering the run that Ohio State made to end the season and promptly win the playoffs, it's safe to say that Oklahoma could make a similar run.
On the other side of spectrum, Clemson hasn't exactly been dominant to close out the season. According to Odds Shark, it finished the season 1-4 against the spread in its last five games of the season while Oklahoma went 4-1 against the spread in the same time span.
This game isn't the sum of each team's form three weeks ago, though. It's a matchup between two teams who have been the best in the nation all season. Clemson finished the season No. 2 in Football Outsiders' F/+ metric while Oklahoma finished No. 3.
In a case of two teams that closely matched, it comes down to matchups.
One matchup in particular could be troubling for the Sooners.
Thus far the Oklahoma offensive line hasn't done the greatest job of protecting Baker Mayfield. The Clemon Tigers defensive line has been great at creating pressure all season. Here's a look at where the two units rank nationally in protecting the quarterback and getting after him.
| Oklahoma | 3.0 | 109 | 8.33 | 107 |
| Clemson | 3.1 | 7 | 9.54 | 3 |
While both teams are known for their offensive playmakers, both have excellent defenses. Both rank in the top 10 in opponent passer rating. They both rank in the top 12 in yards allowed per play.
Both offenses could struggle early on. Despite all the hype behind the quarterback battle of Mayfield and Deshaun Watson, neither has seen many defenses that play on the level of the ones we will see in the Orange Bowl.
If Oklahoma can't consistently protect Mayfield, it's going to be difficult for Oklahoma to get into a rhythm offensively. That could signal problems for a Sooners team that has certainly been in a groove over the latter half of the season.
Prediction: Clemson 28, Oklahoma 24
Jake Coker Leads Alabama Past Michigan State
Of the four playoff teams, the Michigan State Spartans are getting the least respect. The Big Ten champions are almost double-digit underdogs to the Alabama Crimson Tide.
That's most likely because they've been the least dominant by some metrics. They were No. 14 in ESPN's game control metric while facing the least difficult schedule of the four (45th nationally).
But again, those things don't matter. The matchup does.
In this case, that means a Michigan State offense that will need to find a way to move the ball against an Alabama defense that is first nationally in yards allowed per play at 4.0.
The Spartans are known for sticking with the run game and letting Connor Cook test defenses deep in the passing game. However, finding yards on the ground will be tough. Michigan State only averages 4.0 yards per carry (88th nationally). Alabama ranks No. 1 in yards allowed per carry at just 2.4.
However, Alabama finds itself in a similar situation against the Spartans defense.
Michigan State only gives up 3.6 yards per carry and has proven it can stonewall an excellent back this season. The Spartans infamously held Ezekiel Elliott to under three yards per carry as Ohio State only gave their lead back 12 carries.
Alabama offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has alluded to sticking with Derrick Henry against the Spartans, per Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated:
Henry has shown he can wear defenses down. In his last two games he toted the rock 90 times as the Tide depended on the battering ram to carry the offense against Auburn and Florida.
With the Spartans likely to sell out to make sure they aren't the latest Henry victim, it's going to be up to Jake Coker to make plays in the passing game.
It's an area that the Spartans haven't been as strong defensively. Michigan State is just 69th in the nation in passing yards allowed per attempt.
Coker hasn't been called upon to win many games for the Tide. Like many Alabama quarterbacks, he's usually in charge of making good decisions and keeping the chains moving.
However, in this scenario, he's going to be given the opportunities to make plays downfield. With the Spartans using Montae Nicholson to stop the run in the box, the Michigan State secondary will be left vulnerable downfield.
With Alabama's defense a more complete unit than Michigan State's, those small flaws will be the difference in a game that is otherwise close.
Prediction: Alabama 24, Michigan State 14
All stats used courtesy of TeamRankings.com unless otherwise noted.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
