Cotton Bowl 2015: Final Odds and Prediction for Michigan State vs. Alabama

Alabama is widely seen as the premier program in college football the past few years, but it watched its season come crashing down in the initial College Football Playoff against another marquee program, Ohio State.

Now, the Crimson Tide get a revenge opportunity against the Big Ten in this season’s national semifinal, but this time, they will face Michigan State. The Spartans knocked off the Buckeyes, rival Michigan, Oregon and Iowa along the way to a Big Ten title but are still largely seen as the underdogs of the College Football Playoff.

The winner of the Cotton Bowl will face off with the Orange Bowl victor (Clemson or Oklahoma) for the national title, but the storylines go beyond just a potential championship. It is another high-profile Big Ten and SEC showdown, Michigan State is trying to finally shed its underdog label, and Alabama wants to re-establish itself as the king of college football after losing its crown to the Buckeyes. 

With that in mind, here is a look at the essential information and a prediction for the 2015 Cotton Bowl.

Information and Odds

Date: Thursday, Dec. 31

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

Odds: Alabama minus-9.5, per Odds Shark (as of Wednesday at 10 p.m. ET) 

Tickets: Tickets can be found at ScoreBig.com

Preview and Prediction

The saying goes that opposites attract, but sometimes the most entertaining football games are the ones that pit two similar styles against each other. Something has to give, and Michigan State and Alabama are both hard-nosed, physically imposing teams that prefer to outmuscle opponents at the line of scrimmage and bludgeon their way to victory.

The primary star will be Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry, who led the nation with 1,986 rushing yards. He is the personification of the Alabama program as a wrecking ball who picks up short yardage early in the game and wears the defense down, only to pick up large, game-breaking chunks with the outcome hanging in the balance.

It would be easy to say the Spartans have little chance to slow Henry down, but they already contained last season’s College Football Playoff hero, Ezekiel Elliott. The Spartans held Ohio State’s star to a mere 33 rushing yards on 12 carries in their 17-14 victory and will need to replicate that performance if they hope to pull off the upset Thursday.

If Michigan State does bottle Henry, quarterback Jake Coker will likely be asked to win the game.

He threw for 2,489 yards and 17 touchdowns but was largely a supporting actor in the Crimson Tide’s run to the national semifinal. If he can hit one or two big plays early in the game with his arm (which Ohio State couldn’t do against the Spartans), it could open up lanes for Henry to exploit in the second half.

Michigan State was 19th in the nation in points allowed per game (as of Wednesday), but perhaps more importantly against the Heisman winner, it was seventh in the country in rushing yards allowed per game.

Still, the secondary that looked vulnerable at times (75th in passing yards allowed per game) and caught a break with inclement weather against Ohio State could be the Spartans’ undoing if the front seven is tasked with committing too much attention to slowing down Henry.

For as much focus as the battle between the Spartans offense and Crimson Tide defense will draw, Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press pointed to the other showdown as a problem spot for Mark Dantonio’s squad:

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It's not just the size, athleticism and depth that makes Alabama the No.1 rushing defense in the nation (74.0 yards allowed per game). It's the read-and-react approach in a 3-4 look that MSU coaches have tried hard in the past few weeks to emulate in practice. The Spartans don't see it that much.

And they also don't see defensive lines with everyone weighing more than 300 pounds. A'Shawn Robinson is the star up front, a fierce and stunningly agile player at 6 feet 4, 312 pounds. The defensive line ties things up, and a linebacker corps led by All-America Reggie Ragland comes in waves.

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The Alabama front seven is the driving force of the program’s success under Nick Saban, and Michigan State’s offensive line will have its hands full trying to open up holes for its own battering ram, LJ Scott. Alabama is No. 1 in the nation against the run and led the country with 46 sacks.

For as talented as Scott and the Spartans offensive line is, quarterback Connor Cook will have to make plays with his arm to beat the Alabama defense. Cook missed the Ohio State showdown and was limited in the Big Ten Championship Game against Iowa, but he had plenty of time to heal his shoulder before Thursday’s contest.

Michael Conroy/Associated Press

Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated passed along a comment from the signal-caller regarding his health: "I'm feeling great. I practiced [Sunday] and the day before. Felt really good. The time off, going back home, doing some extra rehab stuff obviously helped out a lot. But shoulder is feeling good."

For as great as the SEC is perceived to be every season, the quarterback play in the league is lackluster at best. A healthy Cook is an NFL prospect and arguably the best thrower the Crimson Tide have faced this season. He is certainly a threat a year after Cardale Jones carved Saban’s defense to pieces with a spot in the title game on the line.

Cook needs to find ways to move the ball; otherwise, the Spartans offense will consistently be forced to punt against the best front seven in the nation.

Wide receiver Aaron Burbridge (1,219 yards and seven touchdown catches) can stretch the field against the Alabama secondary that was a stingy 17th in passing yards allowed per game but proved vulnerable in the loss to Ole Miss (341 passing yards and three touchdowns). The combination of Cook and Burbridge is Michigan State’s best hope at the upset.

Cook and Burbridge will find the end zone a couple of times based on pure talent alone, much like the Ole Miss passing attack, but the Crimson Tide's formula will lead them to the national title game.

Henry consistently broke defenses down throughout the second half of the year with his physical style, and he will rack up more than 40 carries Thursday. That will prove too much for the Michigan State defense, and Henry will bust a 30-yard score in the closing minutes to clinch a victory.

Prediction: Alabama 24, Michigan State 14